Contents Detecting Rival Causes 141 The Cause or A Cause 142 Rival Causes and Scientific Research 143 Rival Causes for Differences Between Groups 144 Confusing Causation with Association 146 Confusing "After this"with"Because of this" 147 Explaining Individual Events or Acts 149 Evaluating Rival Causes 150 Evidence and Your Own Writing and Speaking 150 Summary 1. Practice Exercises 151 11 Are the Statistics Deceptive? 155 Unknowable and Biased Statistics 156 Confusing Averages 156 Concluding One Thing, Proving Another 158 Deceiving by Omitting Information 159 Risk Statistics and Omitted Information 161 Practice exercises 163 12 What Significant Information Is Omitted? 167 The Benefits of Detecting Omitted Information 168 The Certainty of Incomplete Reasoning 168 uestions that Identify Omitted Information 170 The Importance of the Negative View 174 Omitted Information That Remains Missing 175 Missing Information and Your Own Writing and Speaking 176 Practice Exercises 176 13 What Reasonable Conclusions are possible? 181 Assumptions and Multiple Conclusions 182 Dichotomous Thinking: Impediment to Considering Multiple Conclusions 182 Two Sides or many 183 earching for Multiple Conclusions 18 Productivity of If-Clauses 186 Alternative Solutions as Conclus The liberating Effect of Recognizing Alternative Conclusions 188 All Conclusions Are Not Created equal 188 Summary 189 Practice exercises 196vi Contents Detecting Rival Causes 141 The Cause or A Cause 142 Rival Causes and Scientific Research 143 Rival Causes for Differences Between Groups 144 Confusing Causation with Association 146 Confusing "After this" with "Because of this" 147 Explaining Individual Events or Acts 149 Evaluating Rival Causes 150 Evidence and Your Own Writing and Speaking 150 Summary 150 Practice Exercises 151 11 Are the Statistics Deceptive? 155 Unknowable and Biased Statistics 156 Confusing Averages 156 Concluding One Thing, Proving Another 158 Deceiving by Omitting Information 159 Risk Statistics and Omitted Information 161 Summary 162 Practice Exercises 163 12 What Significant Information Is Omitted? 167 The Benefits of Detecting Omitted Information 168 The Certainty of Incomplete Reasoning 168 Questions that Identify Omitted Information 170 The Importance of the Negative View 174 Omitted Information That Remains Missing 175 Missing Information and Your Own Writing and Speaking 176 Practice Exercises 176 13 What Reasonable Conclusions Are Possible? 181 Assumptions and Multiple Conclusions 182 Dichotomous Thinking: Impediment to Considering Multiple Conclusions 182 Two Sides or Many? 183 Searching for Multiple Conclusions 185 Productivity of If-Clauses 186 Alternative Solutions as Conclusions 187 The Liberating Effect of Recognizing Alternative Conclusions 188 All Conclusions Are Not Created Equal 188 Summary 189 Practice Exercises 196