General GMM formula Let y, be an h-vector of variables that are observed at date t, let denote an unknown vector of coefficients, h(e, y,) Be an r-vector real function. Let denote true value of 0, and suppose this true value is
Discount model is in terms of conditional moments The first order condition is,u'( BE, [u'(c )x 1] The expectation is conditional expectation on investor's time t information; The basic pricing equation is P, =E, (m +1X1+)
Predictions and applications CAPM: in market equilibrium, investors are only rewarded for bearing the market risk; APT: in the absence of arbitrage, investors are only rewarded for bearing the factor risk Applications: ---professional portfolio managers: evaluating security returns and
Consumption-Based Model and Basic Pricing model Basic question to decide for an investor: (1) how much to save; (2)how much to consume; (3)what portfolio of assets to hold. Pricing equation come from the first order condition for this decision
Stock market index Stock market index is an indicator that is designed to reflect the performance of an entire market or a particular market segment. Indexes have many uses in investments: --allow us to quickly and easily assess market performance; --Serve as underlying securities for futures and options contracts;
Arbitrage Pricing Theory Arbitrage-arises if an investor can construct a zero investment portfolio with a sure profit Since no investment is required, an investor can create large positions to secure large levels of profit
INVESTMENTS Individhual assets and frontier portfolio So far we have learned: 1. Investor hold portfolios to reduce risk. \Non-systematic risks\ of individual assets does not matter. only \systematic risks\matter. 2. Investors hold only frontier portfolios. The natural questions to ask next are:
Capital allocation The choice of proportion in safe asset and proportion in risky asset; Most institutional investors follows top- down analysis---The first part is asset allocation and the next part is security selection decision
