Space Systems Cost Modeling Prof david w. miller Col John Keesee Mr. Cyrus Jilla
Space Systems Cost Modeling Prof. David W. Miller Col. John Keesee Mr. Cyrus Jilla
Why Cost Estimation? Critically important part of system design Too high - lose the contract award Too low-over-run cost plus contracts, company loss on fixed price contracts Trend Design to cost Cost as an independent variable
Why Cost Estimation? • Critically important part of system design – Too high – lose the contract award – Too low – over-run cost plus contracts, company loss on fixed price contracts • Trends – Design to cost – Cost as an independent variable
Work breakdown structure Multi-level table used to organize normalize and track costs and schedule Ensures accounting of all aspects of costs Each element has a start time, completion time, and all components of direct costs(labor, material, etc) Example shows top three levels for spacecraft systems From mil hdbk 881 htto://www.aca.osd.mil/om/newpolicv/wbs/milhdbk881/milhdbk881.htm
Work Breakdown Structure • Multi-level table used to organize, normalize and track costs and schedule – Ensures accounting of all aspects of costs – Each element has a start time, completion time, and all components of direct costs (labor, material, etc) • Example shows top three levels for spacecraft systems – From MIL HDBK 881 – http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm/newpolicy/wbs/mil_hdbk_881/mil_hdbk_881.htm
FLEX LO MANAGEMENT 2.0 SYSTEM ENGINEERING 1.1 Project Planning& Schedule 2.1 Requirements 3.1 Arm Fabrication ganization and meetings 2.1.2 Subsystem Req. Documents 3.1.2 Ground Test Facilities(2) 1.3 Implem Work-around Plans 2.2 Design Evaluation 3.1.3 Flight Arms(2) 2.2.1 3-D 1-g& O-g Modeling 1. 2. 1 Budget Update& Forecast 2.2.2 Feedforward Control Design 3.1.5 Payloads 1.2.2 Subcontract Monitoring 3 Feedback Control Design .3 Human Interface 3 Task Manage tracking .2. 4 Human-in-the-Loop Simulation toring tracking 3.3.2 Grid W/S/W 1.3.2 WBS Maintenance 3 Configuration Control 33.3 Task Targe 1.4 Interface 3. 1 Design docum .3.4 Video Interface .3.3 Equipment List Maintenance 3.2. 1 Experiment Support Module 1. 4. Tech. Tracking Committee 2.3.4 Test Matrix 3.2.2 Crew Interface 1. 4. 4 Repo 2.4 Program Review 3.2.3 Ground Support Equipment .5 Co-1& Subcontractor Mgmt .4 1 Conceptual Design Review 3.2.4 Software 3.2.5 Up/downlink Refurbishment 5.2 Technical task tracking 2.4.3 Non- Advocate Re 2.4.4 Preliminary Design Review 2.4. Critical Design Review 6.2 Nonconformance Trackin 2.4.6 Flight Readiness Review 2.4.7 Post Mission Expt Review 4.0 integration test 5.0 OPERATIONS 4. 1 Engineering Model Integ 4.3 Carrier Integration 5.1 On-Orbit 4. 1.1 Robotic Arm Subsystem Tests 4.3.1 Form 1628 Submittal 5.1.1 Diagnostics& error identi 4.3.2 Integ Reviews(CIR, FOR) 1.2 Human-in-the-Loop 4.1.3 System Functional Testing 4.3.3 Safety Reviews(0, 1, IL, Ill) 4.1.4 Prelim Environmental Test 4.3.4 Payload Integ Plan(PIP) 2 Flight Model integratie 4.3.5 Interface Control Doc(ICD) 5.2.1KSC 42. 1 Integ Planning& doc 4.3.6 PIP Annexe 4.2.2 Test Planning& Doc ument 4.2.3 Arm Subsystem Accept Tests 4.3.8 Crew Training 5.3 Post- Mission Activities 4.2. 4 System Integrat 4.3.9JSC Interface/Project Monit 4.2.5 Functional Testing/Charact 4.3.10 Material Lists 5.3.2 Reporting and dissemination 4.2.6 System Accept/Cert Testing 43 11 Packing Stowage Plans 4.3.12 FM Delivery Recovery
FLEX 1.0 MANAGEMENT 1.1 Project Planning & Schedule 1.1.1 Organization and Meetings 1.1.2 Schedule Maintenance 1.1.3 Implem & Work-around Plans 1.2 Financial 1.2.1 Budget Update & Forecast 1.2.2 Subcontract Monitoring 1.3 Task Manage & Tracking 1.3.1 Monitoring & Tracking 1.3.2 WBS Maintenance 1.4 Interface 1.4.1 Program Monitor 1.4.2 JSC RMS Program 1.4.3 Tech. Tracking Committee 1.4.4 Reporting 1.5 Co-I & Subcontractor Mgmt 1.5.1 Planning & Schedule 1.5.2 Technical & Task Tracking 1.6 Quality 1.6.1 Quality Program Plan 1.6.2 Nonconformance Tracking 2.0 SYSTEM ENGINEERING 2.1 Requirements 2.1.1 Expt Req Document 2.1.2 Subsystem Req. Documents 2.2 Design & Evaluation 2.2.1 3-D 1-g & 0-g Modeling 2.2.2 Feedforward Control Design 2.2.3 Feedback Control Design 2.2.4 Human-in-the-Loop Simulation 2.2.5 Performance Evaluation 2.3 Configuration Control 2.3.1 Design Documents 2.3.2 Processing &Tracking 2.3.3 Equipment List Maintenance 2.3.4 Test Matrix 2.4 Program Reviews 2.4.1 Conceptual Design Review 2.4.2 Requirements Review 2.4.3 Non-Advocate Review 2.4.4 Preliminary Design Review 2.4.5 Critical Design Review 2.4.6 Flight Readiness Review 2.4.7 Post Mission Expt Review 3.0 HARDWARE DESIGN & FAB 3.1 Arm Fabrication 3.1.1 Prototype (1) 3.1.2 Ground Test Facilities (2) 3.1.3 Flight Arms (2) 3.1.4 Motors 3.1.5 Payloads 3.3 Human Interface 3.3.1 Joystick 3.3.2 Grid W/S/W 3.3.3 Task Targets 3.3.4 Video Interface 3.2 Support Elec & Software 3.2.1 Experiment Support Module 3.2.2 Crew Interface 3.2.3 Ground Support Equipment 3.2.4 Software 3.2.5 Up/downlink Refurbishment 4.0 INTEGRATION & TEST 4.1 Engineering Model Integ 4.1.1 Robotic Arm Subsystem Tests 4.1.2 ESM Configuration 4.1.3 System Functional Testing 4.1.4 Prelim Environmental Test 4.2 Flight Model Integration 4.2.1 Integ Planning & Doc 4.2.2 Test Planning & Doc 4.2.3 Arm Subsystem Accept. Tests 4.2.4 System Integration 4.2.5 Functional Testing/Charact 4.2.6 System Accept/Cert Testing 4.3 Carrier Integration 4.3.1 Form 1628 Submittal 4.3.2 Integ Reviews (CIR, FOR,.) 4.3.3 Safety Reviews (0, I, II, III) 4.3.4 Payload Integ Plan (PIP) 4.3.5 Interface Control Doc (ICD) 4.3.6 PIP Annexes 4.3.7 Verification Activities 4.3.8 Crew Training 4.3.9 JSC Interface/Project Monit 4.3.10 Material Lists 4.3.11 Packing & Stowage Plans 4.3.12 FM Delivery & Recovery 5.0 OPERATIONS 5.1 On-Orbit 5.1.1 Diagnostics & error identi 5.1.2 Human-in-the-Loop 5.1.3 Protocol format 5.2 Ground 5.2.1 KSC 5.2.2 JSC 5.2.3 On-orbit Predictions Document 5.3 Post-Mission Activities 5.3.1 Flight Data Analysis 5.3.2 Reporting and dissemination
Software Cost estimation Flight software RDt&E coSts $435/SLOC Ground software rdt&E S220/ SLOC Language Factor Ada UNⅨX-C 1.67 PASCAL 125 FORTRAN 091 SMAD Table 20-10
Software Cost Estimation • Flight software RDT&E costs $435 / SLOC • Ground software RDT&E $220/ SLOC Language Factor Ada 1.00 UNIX-C 1.67 PASCAL 1.25 FORTRAN 0.91 SMAD Table 20-10
Technology Readiness Levels Technology Readiness Level Std dey Conceptual design formulate High >25 Conceptual design tested analytically or Moderate experimental Critical function/characteristic demonstrated Moderate Component or breadboard tested in relevant Moderate 10-15 nvironment 6 Prototype/engineering model tested in relevant Low <10 environment Engineering model tested in space Full operational capability Low
Technology Readiness Levels Technology Readiness Level Definition Risk Std Dev (%) 1 Basic principles observed High >25 2 Conceptual design formulated High >25 3 Conceptual design tested analytically or experimentally Moderate 20-25 4 Critical function/characteristic demonstrated Moderate 15-20 5 Component or breadboard tested in relevant environment Moderate 10-15 6 Prototype/engineering model tested in relevant environment Low <10 7 Engineering model tested in space Low <10 8 Full operational capability Low <10
Higher Level Cost Factors Wraps model non-physical factors Program support, system engineering, management costs, product assurance, integration and test Overhead is incurred in support of an activity but is not solely identifiable to that activit Administration, real estate taxes, facility maintenance evel i taxes are allocated to headquarters Defense Contract Administration Services(DCAS) Small Business Innovative Research(SBIR) Independent Research and Development(R&D)
Higher Level Cost Factors • Wraps model non-physical factors – Program support, system engineering, management costs, product assurance, integration and test • Overhead is incurred in support of an activity but is not solely identifiable to that activity – Administration, real estate taxes, facility maintenance • Level I taxes are allocated to headquarters – Defense Contract Administration Services (DCAS) – Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) – Independent Research and Development (IR&D)
Higher Level Cost Factors(continued) Program Support Costs activities, systems and hardware development outside the prime contract Analyses Govt test facilities, equipment and personnel Program office support contractors for technical oversight Advanced development studies Fee
Higher Level Cost Factors (continued) • Program Support – Costs activities, systems and hardware development outside the prime contract • Analyses • Govt test facilities, equipment and personnel • Program office support contractors for technical oversight • Advanced development studies • Fee
Management Reserves Account for cost and schedule uncertainty Reserve Percent Regression analysis Complexity factor uncertainty Off the shelf; hardware exists; no10% mods required Cost driver input uncertainty Time and material cost Modifications required to existing15% Vendor roms Should be held at management level New hardware but design passed20% Should not be used to accommodate CDR; vendor quotes scope changes New hardware but design passed25% PDR New design but within state of the35% art: Cost est from CERs vendor ROMs New design; remote analogs outside sota
Management Reserves • Account for cost and schedule uncertainty – Regression analysis – Complexity factor uncertainty – Cost driver input uncertainty – Time and material cost – Vendor ROMs • Should be held at Management level • Should not be used to accommodate scope changes Development Status Reserve Percent Off the shelf; hardware exists; no 10% mods required Modifications required to existing 15% hardware New hardware but design passed 20% CDR; vendor quotes New hardware but design passed 25% PDR New design but within state of the 35% art; Cost est from CERs; vendor ROMs New design; remote analogs, outside SOTA 50%
Production costs Non-recurring costs include design, drafting, engineering unit integration, assembly and test, GSE, and design verification Recurring includes flight hardware manufacture la&T Theoretical First Unit is the basis for calculating costs for the production Protoflight unit is the qualification test unit that is refurbished for flight Prototype units don't fly
Production Costs • Non-recurring costs include design, drafting, engineering unit integration, assembly and test, GSE, and design verification • Recurring includes flight hardware manufacture, IA&T • Theoretical First Unit is the basis for calculating costs for the production run • Protoflight unit is the qualification test unit that is refurbished for flight • Prototype units don’t fly