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Methodology DFA Model The Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA)was first proposed by Peng et al.(1995)while examining series of DNA nucleotides.The DFA method has its intrinsic advantage when analyzing the long-range correlation of time series,since it can effectively eliminate the trend component of in the series,as well as detect the long-range correlation of signals superposed with noise and polynomial trend.Due to the validity of DFA in analysis of the long-range power law correlation of non-stationary time series,we employ this method in our long memory test of bulk freight market.Corresponding to the DFA algorithms with n=1,n=2 and n=3,DFAl,DFA2 and DFA 3 are named separately. ICSS Model The Iterative Cumulative Sums of Squares algorithm(ICSS)was first proposed by (Inclan and Tiao,1994).It owns overwhelming superiority in terms of analysis of structural mutability and detection of structural breaks. This method assumes that the volatility is stationary until an external shock induces a structural change of volatility.After a shock,the volatility becomes stationary again until another structural change occurs.In this paper,this method is employed in order to detect the structural breaks of freight rate index. Data Bulk cargo shipping market is not only one of the most important markets of shipping,but also a global bellwether,signaling industrial health wherever it trades,for bulks are mainly used to transport steel,pulp, grain,coal,iron ore,ore,bauxite and other daily necessities and industrial raw materials.Therefore,we pay great attention to dry bulk index.In the analysis,we choose Supramax,Panamax and Capesize to study the fluctuations in freight rate of dry bulk shipping market since there is an obvious trend of large-scale ship in dry bulk market,and these three kinds of bulks can better reflect the volatility.Baltic Supramax Index(BSI), Baltic Panamax Index(BPI),and Baltic Capesize Index(BCI),which reflect the cost of hiring a vessel across a range of indicative shipping routes,are utilized in the following study. The sample for BPI,BSI and BCI covers the period from July 1st,2005 to February 26th,2015.Fig.I is the line graph of BSI,BPI and BCI in the sample period.The index curves show sharp fluctuations and the indices underwent intensive changes in the year 2008,when the world financial crisis happened.4 Methodology DFA Model The Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) was first proposed by Peng et al. (1995) while examining series of DNA nucleotides. The DFA method has its intrinsic advantage when analyzing the long-range correlation of time series, since it can effectively eliminate the trend component of in the series, as well as detect the long-range correlation of signals superposed with noise and polynomial trend. Due to the validity of DFA in analysis of the long-range power law correlation of non-stationary time series, we employ this method in our long memory test of bulk freight market. Corresponding to the DFA algorithms with n 1, n  2 and n  3 , DFA1, DFA2 and DFA 3 are named separately. ICSS Model The Iterative Cumulative Sums of Squares algorithm (ICSS) was first proposed by (Inclan and Tiao, 1994). It owns overwhelming superiority in terms of analysis of structural mutability and detection of structural breaks. This method assumes that the volatility is stationary until an external shock induces a structural change of volatility. After a shock, the volatility becomes stationary again until another structural change occurs. In this paper, this method is employed in order to detect the structural breaks of freight rate index. Data Bulk cargo shipping market is not only one of the most important markets of shipping, but also a global bellwether, signaling industrial health wherever it trades, for bulks are mainly used to transport steel, pulp, grain, coal, iron ore, ore, bauxite and other daily necessities and industrial raw materials. Therefore, we pay great attention to dry bulk index. In the analysis, we choose Supramax, Panamax and Capesize to study the fluctuations in freight rate of dry bulk shipping market since there is an obvious trend of large-scale ship in dry bulk market, and these three kinds of bulks can better reflect the volatility. Baltic Supramax Index (BSI), Baltic Panamax Index (BPI), and Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which reflect the cost of hiring a vessel across a range of indicative shipping routes, are utilized in the following study. The sample for BPI, BSI and BCI covers the period from July 1st, 2005 to February 26th, 2015. Fig. 1 is the line graph of BSI, BPI and BCI in the sample period. The index curves show sharp fluctuations and the indices underwent intensive changes in the year 2008, when the world financial crisis happened
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