Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark W. Rosegrant 757 creased volume of incoming grain will smooth the shock of production shortfalls and reduce the time and expense of importing grain. Chinas foresight in dealing with the upcoming challenge will most likely deter- mine whether the production-demand gap turns into a major agricultural crisis or whether it will become an opportunity to more effectively de- velop the nation's food economy Appendix A TABLE Al ASSUMPTIONS ON THE GROWTH OF FACTORS AFFECTING GRAIN DEMAND IN CHINA,1994-2020 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%o) FACTORS Low Baseline Total 1995-2000 2000-2010 2000-2010 4153 1995-2000 2.424 2010-2020 2.158 2.658 P 2.0 Prices 10 Other grain -1.0 Rural market development 2000 NOTE. The shares of urban population under baseline assumption are 7994 Revisions(New York: United Nations, 1995). Output prices are asel developed by the international Food Policy Research Institute m Rosegrant, M. Agcaoili, and N. Perez, *Global Food Projections to 2020 ns for Investment, '2020 Vision Discussion onal Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C,, 19951). Figures for Copyright 1999 All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved