SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK A288器283es The tanker market has im- Soft Fir女 proved over the last six months,although it re- Recession mains 34%below the long term average.The pick up was driven by the VLCC 6E:St:80102/60/9L lou suosyep'MM +30% market,which saw earn- +60% De 60% ings improve by 24 points. Both VLCC spot and 909% -34% timecharter rates moved in +90% a positive direction,with the latter reaching $27,000/ 120% +120% day in March. ●Meanwhile, average Su- Where are we in the Tanker Cycle ezmax spot earnings spiked Market 2004-13 Sep'13 Ship by Type arket diff.from ast Six Months to $81.960 in mid-January Spot (S/day 44 VLCC 7,88 849 the highest level since be- year ue (S 8.00 39 fore the onset of the down- 05 VLCC Averag turn in late 2008 pot (S/da Suezmax y 33.084 65.8 48.0 12% ·Benchmark secondhand Suezmax averae 57 44务 13% Distribution is restricted; 28.861 10.687 63% 10.894 62毫 Same prices also picked up,five Aframa钱 1 vear te (S/day) 24867 13000 .48% 15.500 38% Better 5 year old (Sm) 50.0 2g.0 427 37.0 16%Better year old -26元 VLCC prices Aframax Average -51% 42% 9%Bit Bette Clean Products Spot (S/dav) 22,009 6,791 -69% 17.151 22呢 47 reaching $73m,a relatively 19.122 22% Bit Better steep increase over the last please (30k dwt) I year Ue (S/dav) 15,000 5 year old (Sm) 35.9 25% 29.0 -19% 6 six months. Figure 1.6.1 The Tanker Market Crude Tanker Market Cycles 100 $.000/d m dwt 80 ■Tanker Lay-Up VLCC/Aframax 007 VLCC 1 Year t/c 285k/95k310k110k 70 remember to acknowledge the sourde. Aframax 1 Year t/c 60 60 50 50 40 30 0 20 20 10 0 R寸RFP品5删品高品品688号588高386888588莒吕8688Fy2 鸟 http://www.clarksons.net 15/09/2014 08:45:3936122 Source:Clarkson Figure 1.6.2 Clarkson Research Services Spring 2014 21Clarkson Research Services Spring 2014 21 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Figure 1.6.2 Figure 1.6.1 The Tanker Market • The tanker market has im￾proved over the last six months, although it re￾mains 34% below the long term average. The pick up was driven by the VLCC market, which saw earn￾ings improve by 24 points. Both VLCC spot and timecharter rates moved in a positive direction, with the latter reaching $27,000/ day in March. • Meanwhile, average Su￾ezmax spot earnings spiked to $81,960 in mid-January, the highest level since be￾fore the onset of the down￾turn in late 2008. • Benchmark secondhand prices also picked up, five year old VLCC prices reaching $73m, a relatively steep increase over the last six months. Where are we in the Tanker Cycle ? Market 2004-13 Ship by Type Rate Average Market % diff. from Market % diff. from Indicator Value Rate Average Rate Average Spot ($/day) 49,447 7,888 -84% 24,362 -51% 33% Better!! 1 year t/c ($/day) 44,589 18,000 -60% 27,000 -39% 20% Better! 5 year old ($m) 95.8 55.0 -43% 73.0 -24% 19% Better VLCC Average -62% -38% 24% Better! Spot ($/day) 40,356 7,662 -81% 14,141 -65% 16% Better 1 year t/c ($/day) 33,084 16,000 -52% 20,000 -40% 12% Better 5 year old ($m) 65.8 40.0 -39% 48.0 -27% 12% Better Suezmax Average -57% -44% 13% Better Spot ($/day) 28,861 10,687 -63% 10,894 -62% 1% Same 1 year t/c ($/day) 24,867 13,000 -48% 15,500 -38% 10% Better 5 year old ($m) 50.0 29.0 -42% 37.0 -26% 16% Better Aframax Average -51% -42% 9% Bit Better Spot ($/day) 22,009 6,791 -69% 17,151 -22% 47% Better!! 1 year t/c ($/day) 19,122 14,500 -24% 15,000 -22% 3% Bit Better 5 year old ($m) 35.9 27.0 -25% 29.0 -19% 6% Bit Better Clean Products Average -39% -21% 18% Better Tanker Average -53% -34% 19% Better VLCC Suezmax Aframax Clean Products (30k dwt) Sep '13 Mar '14 Last Six Months 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 $,000/d m dwt Source: Clarkson Research Services Crude Tanker Market Cycles Tanker Lay-Up VLCC 1 Year t/c Aframax 1 Year t/c VLCC/Aframax 285k/95k 310k/110k Average Values, 2004-2013 +120% -30% -90% -60% +30% +60% +90% 0 -120% Depression Recession Soft Firm Boom Bonanza -34% Zap!! Licensed to Shanghai Maritime University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 15/09/2014 08:45:39 36122 Licensed to Shanghai Maritime University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 15/09/2014 08:45:39 36122