MATERIAL MATTERS top 10 problems,with energy at the top, was solar,wind,and geothermal,with we can see how energy is the key to solv- "To give all 10 billion people on geothermal composing the largest part. ing all of the rest of the problems-from the planet the level of energy To solve the energy challenge,we will water to population: have to find a way to produce,every day, 1.Energy prosperity we in the developed not just what we are producing right now 2.Water world are used to,a couple of but at least twice that much.We will need 3.Food kilowatt-hours per person,we to increase our energy output by a mini- 4.Environment mum factor of two,the generally agreed- 5.Poverty would need to generate 60 upon number,certainly by the middle of the century,but preferably well before 6.Terrorism and war terawatts around the planet- 7.Disease the equivalent of 900 million that-despite the fact that oil and gas will have long since peaked.Considering that 8.Education barrels of oil per day." many people on the planet are not using 9.Democracy much energy at all and that new energy 10.Population sources have yet to be developed,billions Take the second problem on the list,for Continuing down the list of problems, of people would still be living without example:water.Already billions of peo- we can make strong arguments that energy modern energy.To give all 10 billion peo- ple around our planet live without reli- would be tremendously enabling in solv- ple on the planet the level of energy pros- able access to clean water for drinking ing all of these issues,even population.The perity we in the developed world are used and agriculture.As population continues good news about population is that around to,a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, to build and the depletion of existing the planet,the fertility rate is dropping. we would need to generate 60 terawatts aquifers worsens,we will need to find Whenever a nation begins to develop,the around the planet-the equivalent of 900 vast new sources of clean water.Luckily, fertility rate generally drops.In fact,in million barrels of oil per day our planet has huge resources of water, many sections of the developed world,fer- Where could that amount of energy but most has salt in it,and it is often tility rates are now so low that we need to ever come from?The goal of finding it thousands of miles away from where we increase them.During our lifetime,we will seems impossible.Nevertheless,we need need it.We can solve this problem with see worldwide population growth continue to acquire the ability to produce energy at energy:desalinate the water and pump it to slow down,then level out at somewhere this magnitude in a sustainable,continual vast distances.But without cheap energy, around 10 billion people.It probably will way and do it at a low-enough cost-a there is no acceptable answer. not go higher than that.Our challenge then couple of pennies per kilowatt-hour-to Without abundant fresh water,how is to make it possible for 10 billion people to enable global prosperity. are we going to provide the food for our live a reasonable lifestyle on this planet. Searching for the enormous amounts burgeoning worldwide population? That is certainly our charge to keep of energy that could accomplish this goal, Without cheap energy,how are we going we find,remarkably,that our biggest to produce the fertilizer,till the soil,har- The Terawatt Challenge resources are in the areas where we gen- vest the crops,process them,package To provide the technology for accom- erate hardly any energy at all right them,and deliver them to markets? plishing our energy goals,what we need now- -solar,wind,and geothermal. Energy likewise plays the dominant role to do is to find the "new oil"-a basis for in determining the quality of our environ- energy prosperity in the 21st century that Reversing Current Energy Trends ment,the prevention of disease,and so on is as enabling as oil and gas have been for By 2050,if we have solved the prob- down the entire list of global concerns. the past century.The sheer magnitude of lem,the world's energy breakdown will In short,energy is the single most the energy industry makes this an ex- probably look like a reverse of what it is important factor that impacts the prosper- tremely difficult task.Studying the prob- today.Oil,hydroelectric,coal,and gas (in ity of any society.In today's world,with lem in depth,we come to appreciate the that order)would supply the least about six and a half billion people,only fundamental nature of the scientific break- amount of energy,with fusion/fission about one and a half billion of us enjoy throughs necessary to activate these new and biomass processes being somewhat modern energy at the level to which we in energy sources. larger players,and solar/wind/geother- this audience are accustomed.It is impos- In 2004,we consumed on average the mal resources providing the majority of sible to imagine bringing the lower half of equivalent of 220 million barrels of oil per the world's energy.This new breakdown the economic ladder of human civiliza- day to run the world.Or,if we convert represents a revolution in the largest tion-about three billion people-up to a that into watts,what ran the world was enterprise of humankind,an energy modern lifestyle without abundant,low- about 14.5 terawatts.The vast majority of industry that currently runs about $3 tril cost,clean energy. this energy was from oil,gas,and coal. lion per year. Right now,we do not have the technol- Fission and biomass were significant play- Getting there will be incredibly difficult. ogy to enable that.If we do not solve the ers.Most of this biomass was the energy If we knew today how to transform the energy problem for these billions of peo- source for the bottom half of the global makeup of our energy mix by exploiting ple who are basically disenfranchised, economic ladder,three billion people or fission/fusion,solar,or wind,it would how can we imagine that we are going to so.A great deal of that was unsustainably take an inordinate amount of time.If I avoid a future that has ongoing war and burned vegetation,cow dung,and other could go out tomorrow and turn on the terrorism at levels that exceed what we materials that are used where modern switch of a new power plant that would have already known in this past unprece- energy is not available or affordable.Quite produce a thousand megawatts of power dentedly violent 20th century,a century a bit of the 14.5 terawatts was hydropow- from some new,clean,carbon-free energy in which we had less than half the popu- er,but we have already tapped most of source,I would have to turn on a new lation we have now,a century that was the available hydropower.An incredibly plant every day for 27 years before I gen- blessed with ever-abundant cheap oil? small amount of that energy,about 05%, erated even 10 terawatts of new power. 414 MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30·JUNE20O5MATERIAL MATTERS 414 MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 top 10 problems, with energy at the top, we can see how energy is the key to solv￾ing all of the rest of the problems—from water to population: 1. Energy 2. Water 3. Food 4. Environment 5. Poverty 6. Terrorism and war 7. Disease 8. Education 9. Democracy 10. Population Take the second problem on the list, for example: water. Already billions of peo￾ple around our planet live without reli￾able access to clean water for drinking and agriculture. As population continues to build and the depletion of existing aquifers worsens, we will need to find vast new sources of clean water. Luckily, our planet has huge resources of water, but most has salt in it, and it is often thousands of miles away from where we need it. We can solve this problem with energy: desalinate the water and pump it vast distances. But without cheap energy, there is no acceptable answer. Without abundant fresh water, how are we going to provide the food for our burgeoning worldwide population? Without cheap energy, how are we going to produce the fertilizer, till the soil, har￾vest the crops, process them, package them, and deliver them to markets? Energy likewise plays the dominant role in determining the quality of our environ￾ment, the prevention of disease, and so on, down the entire list of global concerns. In short, energy is the single most important factor that impacts the prosper￾ity of any society. In today’s world, with about six and a half billion people, only about one and a half billion of us enjoy modern energy at the level to which we in this audience are accustomed. It is impos￾sible to imagine bringing the lower half of the economic ladder of human civiliza￾tion—about three billion people—up to a modern lifestyle without abundant, low￾cost, clean energy. Right now, we do not have the technol￾ogy to enable that. If we do not solve the energy problem for these billions of peo￾ple who are basically disenfranchised, how can we imagine that we are going to avoid a future that has ongoing war and terrorism at levels that exceed what we have already known in this past unprece￾dentedly violent 20th century, a century in which we had less than half the popu￾lation we have now, a century that was blessed with ever-abundant cheap oil? Continuing down the list of problems, we can make strong arguments that energy would be tremendously enabling in solv￾ing all of these issues, even population. The good news about population is that around the planet, the fertility rate is dropping. Whenever a nation begins to develop, the fertility rate generally drops. In fact, in many sections of the developed world, fer￾tility rates are now so low that we need to increase them. During our lifetime, we will see worldwide population growth continue to slow down, then level out at somewhere around 10 billion people. It probably will not go higher than that. Our challenge then is to make it possible for 10 billion people to live a reasonable lifestyle on this planet. That is certainly our charge to keep. The Terawatt Challenge To provide the technology for accom￾plishing our energy goals, what we need to do is to find the “new oil”—a basis for energy prosperity in the 21st century that is as enabling as oil and gas have been for the past century. The sheer magnitude of the energy industry makes this an ex￾tremely difficult task. Studying the prob￾lem in depth, we come to appreciate the fundamental nature of the scientific break￾throughs necessary to activate these new energy sources. In 2004, we consumed on average the equivalent of 220 million barrels of oil per day to run the world. Or, if we convert that into watts, what ran the world was about 14.5 terawatts. The vast majority of this energy was from oil, gas, and coal. Fission and biomass were significant play￾ers. Most of this biomass was the energy source for the bottom half of the global economic ladder, three billion people or so. A great deal of that was unsustainably burned vegetation, cow dung, and other materials that are used where modern energy is not available or affordable. Quite a bit of the 14.5 terawatts was hydropow￾er, but we have already tapped most of the available hydropower. An incredibly small amount of that energy, about 0.5%, was solar, wind, and geothermal, with geothermal composing the largest part. To solve the energy challenge, we will have to find a way to produce, every day, not just what we are producing right now, but at least twice that much. We will need to increase our energy output by a mini￾mum factor of two, the generally agreed￾upon number, certainly by the middle of the century, but preferably well before that—despite the fact that oil and gas will have long since peaked. Considering that many people on the planet are not using much energy at all and that new energy sources have yet to be developed, billions of people would still be living without modern energy. To give all 10 billion peo￾ple on the planet the level of energy pros￾perity we in the developed world are used to, a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, we would need to generate 60 terawatts around the planet—the equivalent of 900 million barrels of oil per day. Where could that amount of energy ever come from? The goal of finding it seems impossible. Nevertheless, we need to acquire the ability to produce energy at this magnitude in a sustainable, continual way and do it at a low-enough cost—a couple of pennies per kilowatt-hour—to enable global prosperity. Searching for the enormous amounts of energy that could accomplish this goal, we find, remarkably, that our biggest resources are in the areas where we gen￾erate hardly any energy at all right now—solar, wind, and geothermal. Reversing Current Energy Trends By 2050, if we have solved the prob￾lem, the world’s energy breakdown will probably look like a reverse of what it is today. Oil, hydroelectric, coal, and gas (in that order) would supply the least amount of energy, with fusion/fission and biomass processes being somewhat larger players, and solar/wind/geother￾mal resources providing the majority of the world’s energy. This new breakdown represents a revolution in the largest enterprise of humankind, an energy industry that currently runs about $3 tril￾lion per year. Getting there will be incredibly difficult. If we knew today how to transform the makeup of our energy mix by exploiting fission/fusion, solar, or wind, it would take an inordinate amount of time. If I could go out tomorrow and turn on the switch of a new power plant that would produce a thousand megawatts of power from some new, clean, carbon-free energy source, I would have to turn on a new plant every day for 27 years before I gen￾erated even 10 terawatts of new power. “To give all 10 billion people on the planet the level of energy prosperity we in the developed world are used to, a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, we would need to generate 60 terawatts around the planet— the equivalent of 900 million barrels of oil per day