www.mrs.org/publications/bulletin MATERIAL MATTERS Future Global Energy Problem 1:Creating a “Sputnik'”Effect The top charge to keep on my list for President Bush should be to inspire the Prosperity:The next generation of U.S.scientists and engineers.Currently,despite all we have done in the past decade,we are not Terawatt Challenge spurring young Americans to go into the physical sciences and engineering.This problem is getting worse as the years go by.Today,the number of U.S.citizens Richard E.Smalley getting degrees in physical science and engineering alone is low-it is at best sta- tic,and dropping off.My latest data is for the year 2002(see Figure 1);the 2003 and The following article is an edited transcript based on the Symposium X-Frontiers of 2004 numbers will be a bit lower.The Materials Research presentation given by Richard E.Smalley of Rice University on December 2, number of Americans getting degrees in 2004,at the Materials Research Society Fall Meeting in Boston. all fields of sciences and engineering, excluding psychology and social sciences Recently,I watched a humorous news and remarked that he had a personal con- (the increase coming mostly from the life segment on CNN about the U.S.election, nection to this painting.The subject of the sciences),is about a factor of two higher specifically about the Blue States and Red work is a lone horseman riding western but is still static and tapering off. States.In this piece,CNN correspondent saddle up over a difficult hill,probably Another bleak indicator is the waning Jeanne Moos was touring New York City, someplace out in Texas.The horseman is influence of the United States on the scien- interviewing people in downtown actually a Methodist circuit rider,and the tific education of students from other Manhattan.Many of them felt rather dis- whole notion is that this rider is on a mis- countries.For a number of decades,the enfranchised from the rest of the country, sion to go out and do good work,specifi- United States,particularly after World War while some actually felt much more affini- cally,to spread religion and belief in God II,was the premier place for the advance ty for Canada than for what the United across the early Western frontier ment of physical science and engineering States seems to have become for them. The more I think about that experience Now,that is no longer true.In fact,in After the interviews,up popped this map and the significance of that painting,the today's world,Europe and Asia,having of the North American continent,with all more I believe that the concept of "mis- recovered from their wars,have dramati- the Blue States in blue,all the Red States in sion"is at the core of what really does cally enhanced their education experience red,and all of Canada in blue.Written motivate our president.Now that we are and are strongly pushing the physical sci- across the top of Canada was"The United embarking on four more years of the Bush ences and engineering,along with the life States of Canada"and written across the administration,I have also been ponder- sciences.This trend has been remarkable. red section of the United States,it said, ing just what implications that mission Back in the early 1980s,some of the first "Jesusland."It was funny,of course,but it might have for us.With a Republican Asian students I had in my group-very also had a serious side.I have just finished majority in both the House and the Senate, bright students from China-were among reading a book called The Faith of George and four years to move his agenda for- the first who came over during the Carter W.Bush by Stephen Mansfield(Strang ward,President Bush has an excellent administration.In the decades that fol- Communications/Penguin Group,New opportunity to make his mark on history. lowed,many young Asians who received York,2003).I found it to be an excellent their degrees here stayed here in the book,and I recommend it for those who want to gain some insight into why the "At some point,almost certainly United States.Now,however,a great majority of bright,young,highly motivat- folks in Jesusland voted for this man,and within this decade,we will peak ed Asian scientists are returning to their to learn about what motivates him. in the amount of oil that is own countries.More and more,new stu- dents are not coming over here at all for "A Charge to Keep” produced worldwide." their education because it is not necessari- Relative to that,about a year ago i was ly true anymore that to be on the frontier in the Oval Office,along with a number Of course,I have my own concept of of science and engineering,to be in the of other people,when President Bush what the president's mission should be cutting-edge research groups,one has to signed the nanotechnology bill.Most of my own list of "charges to keep"for this come to the United States.Asian citizens us expected the event to be something administration.There are three core prob- now dominate new PhD production in like a five-minute photo-op-sign the lems that I think the president ought to the sciences and engineering worldwide. bill,shake hands,and leave.Instead,the address,all of which are connected with They are bright,creative,and extremely door closed and for about half an hour and impinge on the major issue of energy hard-working.As current trends contin- the president chatted with us.So here prosperity:inspiring the next generation of ue,they are the future. was my great opportunity to talk to the U.S.scientists and engineers,developing So the handwriting is on the wall.We president,and I could not think of a thing replacements for the dwindling fossil fuel are entering a world where the vast to say!But something else noteworthy resources that have provided a majority of majority of young Americans no longer happened.As Mr.Bush walked around our energy in the past,and finding a solu- go into the physical sciences and engi- the Oval Office,pointing out items of tion to global warming.I believe that tak- neering.This is a major concern.In interest,he focused on a painting by ing on these challenges would be a deeply October 1957,the launch of the Russian W.H.D.Koerner,titled A Charge to Keep, moral and wise course of action Sputnik satellite was a wake-up call for 412 MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30◆JUNE2005
MATERIAL MATTERS 412 MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 Recently, I watched a humorous news segment on CNN about the U.S. election, specifically about the Blue States and Red States. In this piece, CNN correspondent Jeanne Moos was touring New York City, interviewing people in downtown Manhattan. Many of them felt rather disenfranchised from the rest of the country, while some actually felt much more affinity for Canada than for what the United States seems to have become for them. After the interviews, up popped this map of the North American continent, with all the Blue States in blue, all the Red States in red, and all of Canada in blue. Written across the top of Canada was “The United States of Canada” and written across the red section of the United States, it said, “Jesusland.” It was funny, of course, but it also had a serious side. I have just finished reading a book called The Faith of George W. Bush by Stephen Mansfield (Strang Communications/Penguin Group, New York, 2003). I found it to be an excellent book, and I recommend it for those who want to gain some insight into why the folks in Jesusland voted for this man, and to learn about what motivates him. “A Charge to Keep” Relative to that, about a year ago I was in the Oval Office, along with a number of other people, when President Bush signed the nanotechnology bill. Most of us expected the event to be something like a five-minute photo-op—sign the bill, shake hands, and leave. Instead, the door closed and for about half an hour the president chatted with us. So here was my great opportunity to talk to the president, and I could not think of a thing to say! But something else noteworthy happened. As Mr. Bush walked around the Oval Office, pointing out items of interest, he focused on a painting by W.H.D. Koerner, titled A Charge to Keep, and remarked that he had a personal connection to this painting. The subject of the work is a lone horseman riding western saddle up over a difficult hill, probably someplace out in Texas. The horseman is actually a Methodist circuit rider, and the whole notion is that this rider is on a mission to go out and do good work, specifically, to spread religion and belief in God across the early Western frontier. The more I think about that experience and the significance of that painting, the more I believe that the concept of “mission” is at the core of what really does motivate our president. Now that we are embarking on four more years of the Bush administration, I have also been pondering just what implications that mission might have for us. With a Republican majority in both the House and the Senate, and four years to move his agenda forward, President Bush has an excellent opportunity to make his mark on history. Of course, I have my own concept of what the president’s mission should be— my own list of “charges to keep” for this administration. There are three core problems that I think the president ought to address, all of which are connected with and impinge on the major issue of energy prosperity: inspiring the next generation of U.S. scientists and engineers, developing replacements for the dwindling fossil fuel resources that have provided a majority of our energy in the past, and finding a solution to global warming. I believe that taking on these challenges would be a deeply moral and wise course of action. Problem 1: Creating a “Sputnik” Effect The top charge to keep on my list for President Bush should be to inspire the next generation of U.S. scientists and engineers. Currently, despite all we have done in the past decade, we are not spurring young Americans to go into the physical sciences and engineering. This problem is getting worse as the years go by. Today, the number of U.S. citizens getting degrees in physical science and engineering alone is low—it is at best static, and dropping off. My latest data is for the year 2002 (see Figure 1); the 2003 and 2004 numbers will be a bit lower. The number of Americans getting degrees in all fields of sciences and engineering, excluding psychology and social sciences (the increase coming mostly from the life sciences), is about a factor of two higher but is still static and tapering off. Another bleak indicator is the waning influence of the United States on the scientific education of students from other countries. For a number of decades, the United States, particularly after World War II, was the premier place for the advancement of physical science and engineering. Now, that is no longer true. In fact, in today’s world, Europe and Asia, having recovered from their wars, have dramatically enhanced their education experience and are strongly pushing the physical sciences and engineering, along with the life sciences. This trend has been remarkable. Back in the early 1980s, some of the first Asian students I had in my group—very bright students from China—were among the first who came over during the Carter administration. In the decades that followed, many young Asians who received their degrees here stayed here in the United States. Now, however, a great majority of bright, young, highly motivated Asian scientists are returning to their own countries. More and more, new students are not coming over here at all for their education because it is not necessarily true anymore that to be on the frontier of science and engineering, to be in the cutting-edge research groups, one has to come to the United States. Asian citizens now dominate new PhD production in the sciences and engineering worldwide. They are bright, creative, and extremely hard-working. As current trends continue, they are the future. So the handwriting is on the wall. We are entering a world where the vast majority of young Americans no longer go into the physical sciences and engineering. This is a major concern. In October 1957, the launch of the Russian Sputnik satellite was a wake-up call for Future Global Energy Prosperity: The Terawatt Challenge Richard E. Smalley The following article is an edited transcript based on the Symposium X—Frontiers of Materials Research presentation given by Richard E. Smalley of Rice University on December 2, 2004, at the Materials Research Society Fall Meeting in Boston. “At some point, almost certainly within this decade, we will peak in the amount of oil that is produced worldwide.” www.mrs.org/publications/bulletin
MATERIAL MATTERS the United States,pointing to a critical decline.At some point,almost certainly ing of the earth-that if we wait long gap in its space technology and sparking within this decade,we will peak in the enough we will see this warming trend a dramatic enhancement in technical and amount of oil that is produced worldwide go back down,even though COz levels science education programs. Even though there will be massive keep going up.On the other hand,most My hope is that President Bush will amounts of oil produced for the rest of this likely there is a causal connection.Even if take up the charge of promoting careers century,the volume produced each year you were a conservative businessperson, in science-particularly in the physical will never again reach the amount pro- you would probably agree that if a vice sciences and engineering.Somehow,if he duced at its peak.This year,2005,might president of your corporation told you can find a way,our president should try very well end up being the historic date of that there is no need to worry about CO to do today for science and engineering that global peak. in the atmosphere,you would consider what John Kennedy so effectively did in Oil,along with gas,is tremendously that too risky a belief on which to base the early 1960s with the apollo space important.The history of oil is basically the future of your company-let alone program.We need a new "Sputnik the history of modern civilization as we the future of the world. Generation"of scientists and engineers. have known it for the past 100 years.As Whatever one's viewpoint,we need to our principal transportation fuel,oil has find an answer to this problem.What bet- Problem 2:Peaks in Oil Production been the basis of our country's power ter time to take on these issues than now, Another charge to keep that should be at and prosperity.What will we do when with the great resources available in the top of the president's list is the assur- there is no longer enough oil and gas? President Bush's second term.What bet- ance of abundant,low-cost energy for us We do not yet have an answer. ter time to challenge American young and our posterity.We are used to living in people-and for that matter,the rest of a world where energy is cheap,and most Problem 3:Dealing with the world-to find ways to solve this of that energy was produced right here in Atmospheric CO, global conundrum? the United States.The majority of our oil The third charge to keep is care of the came from Texas,which was once the pre- environment for the century to come. Energy Heads“Top Ten" mier oil producer in the world and is still Confounding the energy challenge just Global Concerns the center of the world's oil and gas busi- described is the problem of global warm- Energy is not just "any old issue."Most nesses.Yet,as far back as 1970,we peaked ing.For decades now,the average surface people,in fact,understand its importance in the amount of oil we could produce in temperature of the earth has been going very well.When I have given talks on this country.Even though we still think of up.During this same time,the CO,level in this subject before,I have often asked Texas as the land of people getting crazy- the atmosphere has also been increasing people in the audience to name the most rich discovering oil in their back yard,in (see Figure 2).The sharp upswing in tem- critical problems we will have to confront fact Texas has been a net importer of ener- perature and CO2 levels during th e 20th as we go through this century.In every gy for over a decade now,with billions of century corresponds with the rise of fossil case,after a bit of discussion,the audi- energy dollars a year going out of the state. fuels as the world's primary energy source ences have agreed that energy is the sin- Saudi Arabia and the Middle East are now and the vast increase in global population. gle most important issue we face. the dominant oil sources.Even their oil It might turn out that there is no causal Why is energy always preeminent? production,however,will eventually connection between CO,and the warm- When we look at a prioritized list of the --Asians citizens,all fields of Science Engineering -US citizens.all fields of Science Engineering 25.000 (excluding psychology social sciences) 1.0f a Highest Temperature --US citizens,Physical Sciences in Millennium Engineering only 20,000 0.0 虽 -0.5 15.000 380 corals,ice cores and historical records (blue). -1.0 360 10.000 回 340 320 300 5.000 280 260 0 8 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Year Figure 1.Eamed doctoral degrees in science and engineering. Figure 2.Global warming over the past millennium,by temperature Extracted from Science and Engineering Indicators 2,National and CO2 level.(a)Data from thermometers (red)and from tree rings, Science Board (NSB 04-01),2004,www.nsf.gov/nsb/documents/ corals,ice cores,and historical records(blue):(b)data from mea- reports.htm (accessed April 2005). surements at Mauna Loa Observatory:Hawaii (red)and ice core records(blue).Courtesy of Marty Hoffert of New York University MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30·JUWE20O5 413
MATERIAL MATTERS MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 413 the United States, pointing to a critical gap in its space technology and sparking a dramatic enhancement in technical and science education programs. My hope is that President Bush will take up the charge of promoting careers in science—particularly in the physical sciences and engineering. Somehow, if he can find a way, our president should try to do today for science and engineering what John Kennedy so effectively did in the early 1960s with the Apollo space program. We need a new “Sputnik Generation” of scientists and engineers. Problem 2: Peaks in Oil Production Another charge to keep that should be at the top of the president’s list is the assurance of abundant, low-cost energy for us and our posterity. We are used to living in a world where energy is cheap, and most of that energy was produced right here in the United States. The majority of our oil came from Texas, which was once the premier oil producer in the world and is still the center of the world’s oil and gas businesses. Yet, as far back as 1970, we peaked in the amount of oil we could produce in this country. Even though we still think of Texas as the land of people getting crazyrich discovering oil in their back yard, in fact Texas has been a net importer of energy for over a decade now, with billions of energy dollars a year going out of the state. Saudi Arabia and the Middle East are now the dominant oil sources. Even their oil production, however, will eventually decline. At some point, almost certainly within this decade, we will peak in the amount of oil that is produced worldwide. Even though there will be massive amounts of oil produced for the rest of this century, the volume produced each year will never again reach the amount produced at its peak. This year, 2005, might very well end up being the historic date of that global peak. Oil, along with gas, is tremendously important. The history of oil is basically the history of modern civilization as we have known it for the past 100 years. As our principal transportation fuel, oil has been the basis of our country’s power and prosperity. What will we do when there is no longer enough oil and gas? We do not yet have an answer. Problem 3: Dealing with Atmospheric CO2 The third charge to keep is care of the environment for the century to come. Confounding the energy challenge just described is the problem of global warming. For decades now, the average surface temperature of the earth has been going up. During this same time, the CO2 level in the atmosphere has also been increasing (see Figure 2). The sharp upswing in temperature and CO2 levels during th e 20th century corresponds with the rise of fossil fuels as the world’s primary energy source and the vast increase in global population. It might turn out that there is no causal connection between CO2 and the warming of the earth—that if we wait long enough we will see this warming trend go back down, even though CO2 levels keep going up. On the other hand, most likely there is a causal connection. Even if you were a conservative businessperson, you would probably agree that if a vice president of your corporation told you that there is no need to worry about CO2 in the atmosphere, you would consider that too risky a belief on which to base the future of your company—let alone the future of the world. Whatever one’s viewpoint, we need to find an answer to this problem. What better time to take on these issues than now, with the great resources available in President Bush’s second term. What better time to challenge American young people—and for that matter, the rest of the world—to find ways to solve this global conundrum? Energy Heads “Top Ten” Global Concerns Energy is not just “any old issue.” Most people, in fact, understand its importance very well. When I have given talks on this subject before, I have often asked people in the audience to name the most critical problems we will have to confront as we go through this century. In every case, after a bit of discussion, the audiences have agreed that energy is the single most important issue we face. Why is energy always preeminent? When we look at a prioritized list of the Figure 2. Global warming over the past millennium, by temperature and CO2 level. (a) Data from thermometers (red) and from tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records (blue); (b) data from measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory: Hawaii (red) and ice core records (blue). Courtesy of Marty Hoffert of New York University. Figure 1. Earned doctoral degrees in science and engineering. Extracted from Science and Engineering Indicators 2, National Science Board (NSB 04-01), 2004, www.nsf.gov/nsb/documents/ reports.htm (accessed April 2005)
MATERIAL MATTERS top 10 problems,with energy at the top, was solar,wind,and geothermal,with we can see how energy is the key to solv- "To give all 10 billion people on geothermal composing the largest part. ing all of the rest of the problems-from the planet the level of energy To solve the energy challenge,we will water to population: have to find a way to produce,every day, 1.Energy prosperity we in the developed not just what we are producing right now 2.Water world are used to,a couple of but at least twice that much.We will need 3.Food kilowatt-hours per person,we to increase our energy output by a mini- 4.Environment mum factor of two,the generally agreed- 5.Poverty would need to generate 60 upon number,certainly by the middle of the century,but preferably well before 6.Terrorism and war terawatts around the planet- 7.Disease the equivalent of 900 million that-despite the fact that oil and gas will have long since peaked.Considering that 8.Education barrels of oil per day." many people on the planet are not using 9.Democracy much energy at all and that new energy 10.Population sources have yet to be developed,billions Take the second problem on the list,for Continuing down the list of problems, of people would still be living without example:water.Already billions of peo- we can make strong arguments that energy modern energy.To give all 10 billion peo- ple around our planet live without reli- would be tremendously enabling in solv- ple on the planet the level of energy pros- able access to clean water for drinking ing all of these issues,even population.The perity we in the developed world are used and agriculture.As population continues good news about population is that around to,a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, to build and the depletion of existing the planet,the fertility rate is dropping. we would need to generate 60 terawatts aquifers worsens,we will need to find Whenever a nation begins to develop,the around the planet-the equivalent of 900 vast new sources of clean water.Luckily, fertility rate generally drops.In fact,in million barrels of oil per day our planet has huge resources of water, many sections of the developed world,fer- Where could that amount of energy but most has salt in it,and it is often tility rates are now so low that we need to ever come from?The goal of finding it thousands of miles away from where we increase them.During our lifetime,we will seems impossible.Nevertheless,we need need it.We can solve this problem with see worldwide population growth continue to acquire the ability to produce energy at energy:desalinate the water and pump it to slow down,then level out at somewhere this magnitude in a sustainable,continual vast distances.But without cheap energy, around 10 billion people.It probably will way and do it at a low-enough cost-a there is no acceptable answer. not go higher than that.Our challenge then couple of pennies per kilowatt-hour-to Without abundant fresh water,how is to make it possible for 10 billion people to enable global prosperity. are we going to provide the food for our live a reasonable lifestyle on this planet. Searching for the enormous amounts burgeoning worldwide population? That is certainly our charge to keep of energy that could accomplish this goal, Without cheap energy,how are we going we find,remarkably,that our biggest to produce the fertilizer,till the soil,har- The Terawatt Challenge resources are in the areas where we gen- vest the crops,process them,package To provide the technology for accom- erate hardly any energy at all right them,and deliver them to markets? plishing our energy goals,what we need now- -solar,wind,and geothermal. Energy likewise plays the dominant role to do is to find the "new oil"-a basis for in determining the quality of our environ- energy prosperity in the 21st century that Reversing Current Energy Trends ment,the prevention of disease,and so on is as enabling as oil and gas have been for By 2050,if we have solved the prob- down the entire list of global concerns. the past century.The sheer magnitude of lem,the world's energy breakdown will In short,energy is the single most the energy industry makes this an ex- probably look like a reverse of what it is important factor that impacts the prosper- tremely difficult task.Studying the prob- today.Oil,hydroelectric,coal,and gas (in ity of any society.In today's world,with lem in depth,we come to appreciate the that order)would supply the least about six and a half billion people,only fundamental nature of the scientific break- amount of energy,with fusion/fission about one and a half billion of us enjoy throughs necessary to activate these new and biomass processes being somewhat modern energy at the level to which we in energy sources. larger players,and solar/wind/geother- this audience are accustomed.It is impos- In 2004,we consumed on average the mal resources providing the majority of sible to imagine bringing the lower half of equivalent of 220 million barrels of oil per the world's energy.This new breakdown the economic ladder of human civiliza- day to run the world.Or,if we convert represents a revolution in the largest tion-about three billion people-up to a that into watts,what ran the world was enterprise of humankind,an energy modern lifestyle without abundant,low- about 14.5 terawatts.The vast majority of industry that currently runs about $3 tril cost,clean energy. this energy was from oil,gas,and coal. lion per year. Right now,we do not have the technol- Fission and biomass were significant play- Getting there will be incredibly difficult. ogy to enable that.If we do not solve the ers.Most of this biomass was the energy If we knew today how to transform the energy problem for these billions of peo- source for the bottom half of the global makeup of our energy mix by exploiting ple who are basically disenfranchised, economic ladder,three billion people or fission/fusion,solar,or wind,it would how can we imagine that we are going to so.A great deal of that was unsustainably take an inordinate amount of time.If I avoid a future that has ongoing war and burned vegetation,cow dung,and other could go out tomorrow and turn on the terrorism at levels that exceed what we materials that are used where modern switch of a new power plant that would have already known in this past unprece- energy is not available or affordable.Quite produce a thousand megawatts of power dentedly violent 20th century,a century a bit of the 14.5 terawatts was hydropow- from some new,clean,carbon-free energy in which we had less than half the popu- er,but we have already tapped most of source,I would have to turn on a new lation we have now,a century that was the available hydropower.An incredibly plant every day for 27 years before I gen- blessed with ever-abundant cheap oil? small amount of that energy,about 05%, erated even 10 terawatts of new power. 414 MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30·JUNE20O5
MATERIAL MATTERS 414 MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 top 10 problems, with energy at the top, we can see how energy is the key to solving all of the rest of the problems—from water to population: 1. Energy 2. Water 3. Food 4. Environment 5. Poverty 6. Terrorism and war 7. Disease 8. Education 9. Democracy 10. Population Take the second problem on the list, for example: water. Already billions of people around our planet live without reliable access to clean water for drinking and agriculture. As population continues to build and the depletion of existing aquifers worsens, we will need to find vast new sources of clean water. Luckily, our planet has huge resources of water, but most has salt in it, and it is often thousands of miles away from where we need it. We can solve this problem with energy: desalinate the water and pump it vast distances. But without cheap energy, there is no acceptable answer. Without abundant fresh water, how are we going to provide the food for our burgeoning worldwide population? Without cheap energy, how are we going to produce the fertilizer, till the soil, harvest the crops, process them, package them, and deliver them to markets? Energy likewise plays the dominant role in determining the quality of our environment, the prevention of disease, and so on, down the entire list of global concerns. In short, energy is the single most important factor that impacts the prosperity of any society. In today’s world, with about six and a half billion people, only about one and a half billion of us enjoy modern energy at the level to which we in this audience are accustomed. It is impossible to imagine bringing the lower half of the economic ladder of human civilization—about three billion people—up to a modern lifestyle without abundant, lowcost, clean energy. Right now, we do not have the technology to enable that. If we do not solve the energy problem for these billions of people who are basically disenfranchised, how can we imagine that we are going to avoid a future that has ongoing war and terrorism at levels that exceed what we have already known in this past unprecedentedly violent 20th century, a century in which we had less than half the population we have now, a century that was blessed with ever-abundant cheap oil? Continuing down the list of problems, we can make strong arguments that energy would be tremendously enabling in solving all of these issues, even population. The good news about population is that around the planet, the fertility rate is dropping. Whenever a nation begins to develop, the fertility rate generally drops. In fact, in many sections of the developed world, fertility rates are now so low that we need to increase them. During our lifetime, we will see worldwide population growth continue to slow down, then level out at somewhere around 10 billion people. It probably will not go higher than that. Our challenge then is to make it possible for 10 billion people to live a reasonable lifestyle on this planet. That is certainly our charge to keep. The Terawatt Challenge To provide the technology for accomplishing our energy goals, what we need to do is to find the “new oil”—a basis for energy prosperity in the 21st century that is as enabling as oil and gas have been for the past century. The sheer magnitude of the energy industry makes this an extremely difficult task. Studying the problem in depth, we come to appreciate the fundamental nature of the scientific breakthroughs necessary to activate these new energy sources. In 2004, we consumed on average the equivalent of 220 million barrels of oil per day to run the world. Or, if we convert that into watts, what ran the world was about 14.5 terawatts. The vast majority of this energy was from oil, gas, and coal. Fission and biomass were significant players. Most of this biomass was the energy source for the bottom half of the global economic ladder, three billion people or so. A great deal of that was unsustainably burned vegetation, cow dung, and other materials that are used where modern energy is not available or affordable. Quite a bit of the 14.5 terawatts was hydropower, but we have already tapped most of the available hydropower. An incredibly small amount of that energy, about 0.5%, was solar, wind, and geothermal, with geothermal composing the largest part. To solve the energy challenge, we will have to find a way to produce, every day, not just what we are producing right now, but at least twice that much. We will need to increase our energy output by a minimum factor of two, the generally agreedupon number, certainly by the middle of the century, but preferably well before that—despite the fact that oil and gas will have long since peaked. Considering that many people on the planet are not using much energy at all and that new energy sources have yet to be developed, billions of people would still be living without modern energy. To give all 10 billion people on the planet the level of energy prosperity we in the developed world are used to, a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, we would need to generate 60 terawatts around the planet—the equivalent of 900 million barrels of oil per day. Where could that amount of energy ever come from? The goal of finding it seems impossible. Nevertheless, we need to acquire the ability to produce energy at this magnitude in a sustainable, continual way and do it at a low-enough cost—a couple of pennies per kilowatt-hour—to enable global prosperity. Searching for the enormous amounts of energy that could accomplish this goal, we find, remarkably, that our biggest resources are in the areas where we generate hardly any energy at all right now—solar, wind, and geothermal. Reversing Current Energy Trends By 2050, if we have solved the problem, the world’s energy breakdown will probably look like a reverse of what it is today. Oil, hydroelectric, coal, and gas (in that order) would supply the least amount of energy, with fusion/fission and biomass processes being somewhat larger players, and solar/wind/geothermal resources providing the majority of the world’s energy. This new breakdown represents a revolution in the largest enterprise of humankind, an energy industry that currently runs about $3 trillion per year. Getting there will be incredibly difficult. If we knew today how to transform the makeup of our energy mix by exploiting fission/fusion, solar, or wind, it would take an inordinate amount of time. If I could go out tomorrow and turn on the switch of a new power plant that would produce a thousand megawatts of power from some new, clean, carbon-free energy source, I would have to turn on a new plant every day for 27 years before I generated even 10 terawatts of new power. “To give all 10 billion people on the planet the level of energy prosperity we in the developed world are used to, a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, we would need to generate 60 terawatts around the planet— the equivalent of 900 million barrels of oil per day
MATERIAL MATTERS Ten terawatts plus 14 terawatts does not would need to store it so that much less some people in my home town of add up to even half of the 60 terawatts we than 1%escapes from the ground every Houston,where the favorite unit of ener- will eventually need.Of course,we do not year.We could certainly build such stor- gy is the barrel of oil.By saying "solar currently have the technology to build a age facilities in special locations for small energy,we show that we know nothing fleet of nuclear fission breeder reactors- amounts of CO2,but to solve the problem about how big the energy industry is,or let alone a solar or geothermal plant-that for the planet,we would need to build what the"real"energy people are doing. could produce that amount of energy them all over the world and be able to Solar is not now a major player in cheaply.I believe that if we do not find a verify that they will safely store tens of worldwide energy.To those people with way to build such power plants over the gigatons of carbon per year,and do this wry smiles,however,I would like to next decade,or at most two,this 21st cen- year after year.There is no known way to point out that if they like nuclear reactors tury is going to be very unpleasant. do this.Putting CO2 in the ground does as a big-time,big-boy energy solution, not generate any money;instead,it is they should be impressed by a nuclear Finding Alternatives to Oil more like taking money and throwing it reactor that has been going strong for bil- Where are we going to find new energy? down a hole.I have yet to hear a com- lions of years.Without doing anything The list of possible sources will not pro- pelling business case for sequestration. we enjoy the effect of 165,000 terawatts of duce enough of an energy impact.True, power hitting the earth's disk every early on we could achieve some progress Solar Solutions moment of every day.This vast nuclear with conservation and efficiency.In the I do not believe that our energy prob- reactor has gone through over 4 billion developed world,with its top billion peo- lems can be solved through the burning years of shake-down trials,and it is prob- ple,it is possible that we could effect sub- of fossil fuels.Yet,these fuels currently ably going to continue providing stable stantial energy savings.In the undevel- represent our primary energy resources, performance for at least another couple oped world,however,conservation is the only ones we know how to use to our of billion years.We are bathed in energy. meaningless,because so little energy is economic advantage.The energy sources The truth is that there is plenty of ener- used.Even with high efficiency,then,we that could genuinely respond to our gy hitting the surface of the earth.Nate are still going to need vast new energy future needs are all basically from Lewis of the California Institute of Tech- sources.Hydroelectric,as I mentioned,is nuclear sources,either human-made nology likes to demonstrate that we could mostly tapped out.Biomass could be very nuclear fission or nuclear fusion reactors, cleanly meet the world's entire energy significant were we not confronted with a or the nuclear reactions resulting from needs,two kilowatts per person for 10 bil- global food and water crisis.Essentially, the spontaneous decay of uranium and lion people,by applying the following ele- we are trying to move from a situation thorium in the rocks of the earth (geo- gant solution (shown in Figure 3).On a where we pull our energy out of the thermal energy).Then there is that great global map,identify six rectangular spaces ground in oil and gas to one where we big hydrogen fusion reactor up in the located in areas of high solar radiation must grow energy crops every year at a sky,the sun.That is where the truly big create 10%efficiency,then collect that very high rate in order to produce just one resources can be found. power,which would be about 20 ter- terawatt.This would require a revolution Yet,the mention of "solar energy"in awatts of electrical power,the equivalent in agriculture at a time when we are strug- any kind of conversation about world of 60 terawatts total energy power at a gling just to sustain our current production energy will sometimes elicit a wry smile 30%energy conversion.That would total- levels for food. from certain people-for example,from ly solve humanity's energy problem and There has been a lot of talk about the hydrogen economy,which I believe is U despite its virtues,likely to remain a dis- traction from the real,practical solutions to our energy needs.Hydrogen is not a basic energy source.Rather,hydrogen is a way of storing energy and moving it from here to there.Unfortunately,it does not do either of these tasks very well.For NORTH these tasks,electricity is a much better AMERICA answer.Electrical power transmission is ◇ a superb way to move energy from one place to another,and at least on a small scale,electrical power can be stored. The biggest resources right now are in fossil fuels-oil,gas,and coal.We cer- SOUTH AMERICA tainly have enough coal for another five decades or so,if we expand production But we cannot simply burn all that coal and assume that the CO2 problem is going to go away,or that we can ignore it,or get around it.The only way now imagined to deal with the enormity of this issue is sequestration,finding places where CO,can be securely stored.Given Figure 3.Solar cell land area requirements in which the six boxes(100 km on a side),located in that the average lifetime of CO2 in the areas of high solar radiation,can each provide 3.3 terawatts of electrical power to a total of-20 atmosphere is greater than 100 years,we terawatts of electrical power.Courtesy of Nate Lewis of the Califomia Institute of Technology. MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30·JUWE20O5 415
MATERIAL MATTERS MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 415 Ten terawatts plus 14 terawatts does not add up to even half of the 60 terawatts we will eventually need. Of course, we do not currently have the technology to build a fleet of nuclear fission breeder reactors— let alone a solar or geothermal plant—that could produce that amount of energy cheaply. I believe that if we do not find a way to build such power plants over the next decade, or at most two, this 21st century is going to be very unpleasant. Finding Alternatives to Oil Where are we going to find new energy? The list of possible sources will not produce enough of an energy impact. True, early on we could achieve some progress with conservation and efficiency. In the developed world, with its top billion people, it is possible that we could effect substantial energy savings. In the undeveloped world, however, conservation is meaningless, because so little energy is used. Even with high efficiency, then, we are still going to need vast new energy sources. Hydroelectric, as I mentioned, is mostly tapped out. Biomass could be very significant were we not confronted with a global food and water crisis. Essentially, we are trying to move from a situation where we pull our energy out of the ground in oil and gas to one where we must grow energy crops every year at a very high rate in order to produce just one terawatt. This would require a revolution in agriculture at a time when we are struggling just to sustain our current production levels for food. There has been a lot of talk about the hydrogen economy, which I believe is, despite its virtues, likely to remain a distraction from the real, practical solutions to our energy needs. Hydrogen is not a basic energy source. Rather, hydrogen is a way of storing energy and moving it from here to there. Unfortunately, it does not do either of these tasks very well. For these tasks, electricity is a much better answer. Electrical power transmission is a superb way to move energy from one place to another, and at least on a small scale, electrical power can be stored. The biggest resources right now are in fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal. We certainly have enough coal for another five decades or so, if we expand production. But we cannot simply burn all that coal and assume that the CO2 problem is going to go away, or that we can ignore it, or get around it. The only way now imagined to deal with the enormity of this issue is sequestration, finding places where CO2 can be securely stored. Given that the average lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is greater than 100 years, we would need to store it so that much less than 1% escapes from the ground every year. We could certainly build such storage facilities in special locations for small amounts of CO2, but to solve the problem for the planet, we would need to build them all over the world and be able to verify that they will safely store tens of gigatons of carbon per year, and do this year after year. There is no known way to do this. Putting CO2 in the ground does not generate any money; instead, it is more like taking money and throwing it down a hole. I have yet to hear a compelling business case for sequestration. Solar Solutions I do not believe that our energy problems can be solved through the burning of fossil fuels. Yet, these fuels currently represent our primary energy resources, the only ones we know how to use to our economic advantage. The energy sources that could genuinely respond to our future needs are all basically from nuclear sources, either human-made nuclear fission or nuclear fusion reactors, or the nuclear reactions resulting from the spontaneous decay of uranium and thorium in the rocks of the earth (geothermal energy). Then there is that great big hydrogen fusion reactor up in the sky, the sun. That is where the truly big resources can be found. Yet, the mention of “solar energy” in any kind of conversation about world energy will sometimes elicit a wry smile from certain people—for example, from some people in my home town of Houston, where the favorite unit of energy is the barrel of oil. By saying “solar energy,” we show that we know nothing about how big the energy industry is, or what the “real” energy people are doing. Solar is not now a major player in worldwide energy. To those people with wry smiles, however, I would like to point out that if they like nuclear reactors as a big-time, big-boy energy solution, they should be impressed by a nuclear reactor that has been going strong for billions of years. Without doing anything, we enjoy the effect of 165,000 terawatts of power hitting the earth’s disk every moment of every day. This vast nuclear reactor has gone through over 4 billion years of shake-down trials, and it is probably going to continue providing stable performance for at least another couple of billion years. We are bathed in energy. The truth is that there is plenty of energy hitting the surface of the earth. Nate Lewis of the California Institute of Technology likes to demonstrate that we could cleanly meet the world’s entire energy needs, two kilowatts per person for 10 billion people, by applying the following elegant solution (shown in Figure 3). On a global map, identify six rectangular spaces located in areas of high solar radiation, create 10% efficiency, then collect that power, which would be about 20 terawatts of electrical power, the equivalent of 60 terawatts total energy power at a 30% energy conversion. That would totally solve humanity’s energy problem and ASIA AND RUSSIA AFRICA SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA EUROPE AUSTRALIA AND OCEANIA Figure 3. Solar cell land area requirements in which the six boxes (100 km on a side), located in areas of high solar radiation, can each provide 3.3 terawatts of electrical power to a total of ~20 terawatts of electrical power. Courtesy of Nate Lewis of the California Institute of Technology
MATERIAL MATTERS allow us to concentrate on other problems Enabling the Grid:Local Energy Storage what effectively would be a new major- for the rest of this century With this energy distribution model appliance industry.Since our proposed Although there is plenty of solar ener- the entire North American continent,all unit is very small,it could be easily mar gy,we do not have the technology to the way from the Arctic Circle down to keted to each one of those hundred mil- develop it at a few pennies per kilowatt- Panama,would be wired together in a lion or so energy customers who are seek- hour.Right now we could do it at about giant interconnected electrical energy ing local storage.Since the unit would 20-50 cents a kilowatt-hour (averaged grid.Indeed,we are already very close to have to be inexpensive-a few thousand over a day/night cycle),but that would that now,except that in the new grid,by dollars at most-customers who were not be far too expensive.If you believe with the middle of the century,there would be satisfied could replace their units or trade me that we absolutely need to provide two critical additions.The first would be up to a better model,as they do now with the planet's 10 billion people with the local energy storage.Every one of the other technical products such as comput- potential to pursue a fulfilling lifestyle, hundred million or so sites consuming ers.It would be a way to "PC"this critical where they have a roof over their heads, energy in this grid would have its own aspect of the energy industry.Every five enough food to eat,sufficient mobility, storage unit-the equivalent of an unin- years or so,on average,customers would communications,and the capability to terruptible power supply that not only opt to upgrade their storage unit,based build homes and develop cities,then you gives a home computer a few minutes of on local economic incentives and newly will agree that we have to revolutionize power during an outage,but also can available product improvements driven the world's energy system.We need supply each of our houses or businesses by free markets and entrepreneurship. cheap,clean energy in vast amounts. with 12-24 hours of full operation. Inventive minds would be continually evolving the best possible answer to what The Distributed Energy Grid fits inside this box. The hardest problem will be finding "There has been a lot of talk about Then,every one of those sites in the viable replacements for the energy the hydrogen economy,which I electrical energy grid would be able to use sources we have been relying on for believe is,despite its virtues, one of these units to buffer the grid's ener- decades,oil in particular.Oil is not only a gy fluctuations.Real-time pricing for indi- great primary energy source,it is also the likely to remain a distraction from vidual electrical power usage would give best form in which to transport energy the real,practical solutions to each customer the incentive to buy a unit over continental distances and across that could absorb the power needed to oceans.Most of the oil we import comes our energy needs." generate 100 kilowatt-hours of electricity across the sea in what has become a very in the six-hour time period when energy is efficient process-putting the oil in Imagine that by mid-century,nano cheapest on the grid.People who needed tankers.When we buy a gallon of gas,the technologies,new materials,and possibly more than 100 kilowatt-hours of power or actual dollar cost for that transportation new physics will have enabled us to cre needed virtually trouble-free energy for is less than 10%. ate local storage units for electrical energy longer periods could simply buy addition In contrast,it is much less efficient to that are not much bigger than this lectern. al or larger units.That would be the cus transport natural gas in this way.Natural The units would store 100 kilowatt-hours tomer's decision. gas has to be cooled to liquefy it to form which is enough to run a normal house Basically,this local unit would solve LNG before it goes into the tank.That in for 24 hours.If we tried to run this type of the energy storage problem.With that itself takes a lot of energy.The LNG unit right now using a lead acid battery, solved,it would now be possible to get tanker is more expensive,resulting in the unit would have to be about 20 times most of the energy on the grid from much higher transportation costs,and it this volume-the size of a small room. "unreliable"or episodic sources,like takes more energy to re-gasify and com- The cost would be around $10,000.I wind or solar.Without a local storage press the gas for storage,pipeline trans- believe that if we really put our minds to solution,however,we could not rely on portation,and use when it reaches its it,we could think of a way to shrink the these "other"energy sources to supply destination.We are going to find out unit volume significantly and drop the large amounts of energy on the grid,at exactly how high these costs will be as cost dramatically.There must be many least not at levels above 10-20%.Above time goes on,since most of our natural technologies that would fit inside this those levels,we would need to have all gas will eventually have to be imported. "box"and store that amount of energy. the reserves in place,ready to provide Transporting liquid hydrogen would be On the other hand,if we think about electrical power when the sun stopped vastly more expensive. storing energy on a much larger scale- shining or the wind stopped blowing. say,that of a big power plant that pro- Local energy storage would get us past "Energy as Energy" duces a gigawatt of power-the possibili- that problem and give us an extremely How,then,around the year 2050,are ties are very limited.We could pump robust,terrorist-resistant,delocalized we going to transport energy over vast water uphill and run it back down again electrical energy system. distances while minimizing the costs and (if we had the water and the land),or we getting the amount of power we need? could compress air (if we had large cav- Completing the Grid:High-Voltage The best answer would be to transport erns to store it in).Large-scale energy stor- Transmission Lines energy as energy,not as mass.Instead of age technologies do exist,but,except in In addition to a local system,one other storing energy in some chemical form, special locations,they lack the practicality innovation is needed on the grid to make it keep it as pure energy.There are essential- and desirability of small-scale storage work.We need the capability to transport ly only two ways to do that.We could electrical power in hundreds of gigawatts microwave energy up to a satellite and Commercializing Local Energy Storage over thousands of miles.High-voltage bounce it back down,or we could run it I believe that creating an efficient local transmission lines would be very efficient along wires on the earth's surface.We will storage solution should be one of our for this purpose.In fact,we already have do both,but mostly we will use wires. prime energy targets.Let us develop dc lines that carry electricity for 1500 miles 416 MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30·JUWE20O5
MATERIAL MATTERS 416 MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 allow us to concentrate on other problems for the rest of this century. Although there is plenty of solar energy, we do not have the technology to develop it at a few pennies per kilowatthour. Right now we could do it at about 20–50 cents a kilowatt-hour (averaged over a day/night cycle), but that would be far too expensive. If you believe with me that we absolutely need to provide the planet’s 10 billion people with the potential to pursue a fulfilling lifestyle, where they have a roof over their heads, enough food to eat, sufficient mobility, communications, and the capability to build homes and develop cities, then you will agree that we have to revolutionize the world’s energy system. We need cheap, clean energy in vast amounts. The Distributed Energy Grid The hardest problem will be finding viable replacements for the energy sources we have been relying on for decades, oil in particular. Oil is not only a great primary energy source, it is also the best form in which to transport energy over continental distances and across oceans. Most of the oil we import comes across the sea in what has become a very efficient process—putting the oil in tankers. When we buy a gallon of gas, the actual dollar cost for that transportation is less than 10%. In contrast, it is much less efficient to transport natural gas in this way. Natural gas has to be cooled to liquefy it to form LNG before it goes into the tank. That in itself takes a lot of energy. The LNG tanker is more expensive, resulting in much higher transportation costs, and it takes more energy to re-gasify and compress the gas for storage, pipeline transportation, and use when it reaches its destination. We are going to find out exactly how high these costs will be as time goes on, since most of our natural gas will eventually have to be imported. Transporting liquid hydrogen would be vastly more expensive. “Energy as Energy” How, then, around the year 2050, are we going to transport energy over vast distances while minimizing the costs and getting the amount of power we need? The best answer would be to transport energy as energy, not as mass. Instead of storing energy in some chemical form, keep it as pure energy. There are essentially only two ways to do that. We could microwave energy up to a satellite and bounce it back down, or we could run it along wires on the earth’s surface. We will do both, but mostly we will use wires. Enabling the Grid: Local Energy Storage With this energy distribution model, the entire North American continent, all the way from the Arctic Circle down to Panama, would be wired together in a giant interconnected electrical energy grid. Indeed, we are already very close to that now, except that in the new grid, by the middle of the century, there would be two critical additions. The first would be local energy storage. Every one of the hundred million or so sites consuming energy in this grid would have its own storage unit—the equivalent of an uninterruptible power supply that not only gives a home computer a few minutes of power during an outage, but also can supply each of our houses or businesses with 12–24 hours of full operation. Imagine that by mid-century, nanotechnologies, new materials, and possibly new physics will have enabled us to create local storage units for electrical energy that are not much bigger than this lectern. The units would store 100 kilowatt-hours, which is enough to run a normal house for 24 hours. If we tried to run this type of unit right now using a lead acid battery, the unit would have to be about 20 times this volume—the size of a small room. The cost would be around $10,000. I believe that if we really put our minds to it, we could think of a way to shrink the unit volume significantly and drop the cost dramatically. There must be many technologies that would fit inside this “box” and store that amount of energy. On the other hand, if we think about storing energy on a much larger scale— say, that of a big power plant that produces a gigawatt of power—the possibilities are very limited. We could pump water uphill and run it back down again (if we had the water and the land), or we could compress air (if we had large caverns to store it in). Large-scale energy storage technologies do exist, but, except in special locations, they lack the practicality and desirability of small-scale storage. Commercializing Local Energy Storage I believe that creating an efficient local storage solution should be one of our prime energy targets. Let us develop what effectively would be a new majorappliance industry. Since our proposed unit is very small, it could be easily marketed to each one of those hundred million or so energy customers who are seeking local storage. Since the unit would have to be inexpensive—a few thousand dollars at most—customers who were not satisfied could replace their units or trade up to a better model, as they do now with other technical products such as computers. It would be a way to “PC” this critical aspect of the energy industry. Every five years or so, on average, customers would opt to upgrade their storage unit, based on local economic incentives and newly available product improvements driven by free markets and entrepreneurship. Inventive minds would be continually evolving the best possible answer to what fits inside this box. Then, every one of those sites in the electrical energy grid would be able to use one of these units to buffer the grid’s energy fluctuations. Real-time pricing for individual electrical power usage would give each customer the incentive to buy a unit that could absorb the power needed to generate 100 kilowatt-hours of electricity in the six-hour time period when energy is cheapest on the grid. People who needed more than 100 kilowatt-hours of power or needed virtually trouble-free energy for longer periods could simply buy additional or larger units. That would be the customer’s decision. Basically, this local unit would solve the energy storage problem. With that solved, it would now be possible to get most of the energy on the grid from “unreliable” or episodic sources, like wind or solar. Without a local storage solution, however, we could not rely on these “other” energy sources to supply large amounts of energy on the grid, at least not at levels above 10–20%. Above those levels, we would need to have all the reserves in place, ready to provide electrical power when the sun stopped shining or the wind stopped blowing. Local energy storage would get us past that problem and give us an extremely robust, terrorist-resistant, delocalized electrical energy system. Completing the Grid: High-Voltage Transmission Lines In addition to a local system, one other innovation is needed on the grid to make it work. We need the capability to transport electrical power in hundreds of gigawatts over thousands of miles. High-voltage transmission lines would be very efficient for this purpose. In fact, we already have dc lines that carry electricity for 1500 miles “There has been a lot of talk about the hydrogen economy, which I believe is, despite its virtues, likely to remain a distraction from the real, practical solutions to our energy needs
MATERIAL MATTERS with fairly low loss.They carry only about the Analysis of Global Security,www.iags. Hackerman Chair in Chemistry in 1982. 1 gigawatt,or 1000 megawatts,however, org(accessed April 2005);Amory Lovins, Smalley was a founder of the Quantum not the 100 gigawatts we need.If,through Rocky Mountain Institute,www.rmi.org Institute in 1979 and served as chair from new technology,we could figure out how (accessed April 2005);M.I.Hoffert et al., 1986 to 1996.In 1990,he became a professor to transport electricity over wires that Science 298 (November 1,2002)p.981;and in the Department of Physics and was would deliver power thousands of miles "Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen away from where it is generated,and do Economy:Report of the Basic Energy appointed University Professor in 2002. that for several pennies per extra premium, Sciences Workshop on Hydrogen Smalley was the founding director of the we could make the whole North American Production,Storage,and Use,May 13-15, Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology continent energy-self-sufficient. 2003,"www.sc.doe.gov/bes/hydrogen. at Rice in 1996 and is now director of the uni- pdf(accessed April 2005). versity's Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory. Everybody Gets to Play Among Smalley's other awards and honors That goal is not as impossible as it Richard E.Smalley is the 1996 Nobel are election to the National Academy of might seem.There are places on this conti- Laureate in chemistry and a University Sciences (1990)and to the American Acad- nent that experience extremely intense Professor and professor of chemistry and emy of Arts and Sciences (1991),the Inter- solar radiation that is very reliable.There physics at Rice University.He received his national Prize for New Materials (1992),the are also highly remote places that most people would not object to as sites for BS degree in 1965 from the UIniversity of E.O.Lawrence Award of the U.S.Depart- nuclear power plants-places that would Michigan.After a four-year period as a ment of Energy (1992),the Franklin Medal not be in anybody's backyard.Today, research chemist with Shell Chemical (1996),the Distinguished Public Service most people are not even aware of what Company,he earned a master's degree in Medal from the L.S.Department of the Navy fraction of their electrical power comes 1971 and his PhD degree in 1973 from (1997),the Glenn T.Seaborg Medal of the from a nuclear plant,or where that plant is Princeton UIniversity.At Rice University,he State of Texas(2002),and the Lifetime located.They would be even less aware if rose rapidly through the academic ranks, Achievement Award from Small Times the facility were out in,say,Hanford, being named to the Gene and Norman Magazine (2003). Washington,my favorite place to put nuclear power plants.So,combining long- distance electrical power transmission with efficient local electrical storage gives us access to energy produced by any new technologies,as well as any existing power plants regardless of their technolo- possibility a comm gy or precise location.In the brave new energy era,everybody gets to play. Conclusion MRS Online Innovations in nanotechnology and other advances in materials science E-Mail Alerts would make it possible to transform our vision of plentiful,low-cost energy into a reality.By developing new technologies, marshaling the excellent resources of organizations like the Materials Research Sign up for any of these FREE services today and let the Society,and developing the talents of a Materials Research Society bring materials information to you! new generation of scientists and engi- neers,I believe that we can solve even eMatters our most critical energy problems. MRS Table of Contents Alert FoR FURTHER READING:David Goodstein, Out of Gas:The End of the Age of Oil (W.W. Just Published!Book Alert Norton Co.,New York,2004);Paul Roberts,The End of Oil:On the Edge of a ·MRS Meetings Alert Perilous New World (Houghton Mifflin, New York,2004);Daniel Yergin,The Prize: ·MRS Meeting Scene The Epic Quest for Oil,Money,Power (Free Press,New York,1991);Kenneth S. MRS Public Affairs Alert Deffeyes,Hubbert's Peak:The Impending World Oil Shortage (Princeton University ·Women in MS&E Press,Princeton,N.J.,2001);Matthew R. Simmons,Simmons Company Interna- For more information,go to... tional,www.simmonsco-intl.com (ac- www.mrs.org/alerts/ MRS Materials Research cessed April 2005);Association for the Society Study of Peak Oil Gas,www.peakoilnet (accessed April 2005);Gal Luft,Institute for MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30◆JUWE20O5 www.mrs.org/publications/bulletin 417
MATERIAL MATTERS MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 417 with fairly low loss. They carry only about 1 gigawatt, or 1000 megawatts, however, not the 100 gigawatts we need. If, through new technology, we could figure out how to transport electricity over wires that would deliver power thousands of miles away from where it is generated, and do that for several pennies per extra premium, we could make the whole North American continent energy– self-sufficient. Everybody Gets to Play That goal is not as impossible as it might seem. There are places on this continent that experience extremely intense solar radiation that is very reliable. There are also highly remote places that most people would not object to as sites for nuclear power plants—places that would not be in anybody’s backyard. Today, most people are not even aware of what fraction of their electrical power comes from a nuclear plant, or where that plant is located. They would be even less aware if the facility were out in, say, Hanford, Washington, my favorite place to put nuclear power plants. So, combining longdistance electrical power transmission with efficient local electrical storage gives us access to energy produced by any new technologies, as well as any existing power plants regardless of their technology or precise location. In the brave new energy era, everybody gets to play. Conclusion Innovations in nanotechnology and other advances in materials science would make it possible to transform our vision of plentiful, low-cost energy into a reality. By developing new technologies, marshaling the excellent resources of organizations like the Materials Research Society, and developing the talents of a new generation of scientists and engineers, I believe that we can solve even our most critical energy problems. FOR FURTHER READING: David Goodstein, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil (W.W. Norton & Co., New York, 2004); Paul Roberts, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World (Houghton Mifflin, New York, 2004); Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, & Power (Free Press, New York, 1991); Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 2001); Matthew R. Simmons, Simmons & Company International, www.simmonsco-intl.com (accessed April 2005); Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, www.peakoil.net (accessed April 2005); Gal Luft, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, www.iags. org (accessed April 2005); Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, www.rmi.org (accessed April 2005); M.I. Hoffert et al., Science 298 (November 1, 2002) p. 981; and “Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy: Report of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Use, May 13–15, 2003,” www.sc.doe.gov/bes/hydrogen. pdf (accessed April 2005). Richard E. Smalley is the 1996 Nobel Laureate in chemistry and a University Professor and professor of chemistry and physics at Rice University. He received his BS degree in 1965 from the University of Michigan. After a four-year period as a research chemist with Shell Chemical Company, he earned a master’s degree in 1971 and his PhD degree in 1973 from Princeton University. At Rice University, he rose rapidly through the academic ranks, being named to the Gene and Norman Hackerman Chair in Chemistry in 1982. Smalley was a founder of the Quantum Institute in 1979 and served as chair from 1986 to 1996. In 1990, he became a professor in the Department of Physics and was appointed University Professor in 2002. Smalley was the founding director of the Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology at Rice in 1996 and is now director of the university’s Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory. Among Smalley’s other awards and honors are election to the National Academy of Sciences (1990) and to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (1991), the International Prize for New Materials (1992), the E.O. Lawrence Award of the U.S. Department of Energy (1992), the Franklin Medal (1996), the Distinguished Public Service Medal from the U.S. Department of the Navy (1997), the Glenn T. Seaborg Medal of the State of Texas (2002), and the Lifetime Achievement Award from Small Times Magazine (2003). c a mo munity of scie ntific possibility • a community of sc ei ntif ci poss bi i il yt • MRS Online E-Mail Alerts Sign up for any of these FREE services today and let the Materials Research Society bring materials information to you! • eMatters • MRS Table of Contents Alert • Just Published! Book Alert • MRS Meetings Alert • MRS Meeting Scene • MRS Public Affairs Alert • Women in MS&E For more information, go to... www.mrs.org/alerts/ www.mrs.org/publications/bulletin
