MATERIAL MATTERS the United States,pointing to a critical decline.At some point,almost certainly ing of the earth-that if we wait long gap in its space technology and sparking within this decade,we will peak in the enough we will see this warming trend a dramatic enhancement in technical and amount of oil that is produced worldwide go back down,even though COz levels science education programs. Even though there will be massive keep going up.On the other hand,most My hope is that President Bush will amounts of oil produced for the rest of this likely there is a causal connection.Even if take up the charge of promoting careers century,the volume produced each year you were a conservative businessperson, in science-particularly in the physical will never again reach the amount pro- you would probably agree that if a vice sciences and engineering.Somehow,if he duced at its peak.This year,2005,might president of your corporation told you can find a way,our president should try very well end up being the historic date of that there is no need to worry about CO to do today for science and engineering that global peak. in the atmosphere,you would consider what John Kennedy so effectively did in Oil,along with gas,is tremendously that too risky a belief on which to base the early 1960s with the apollo space important.The history of oil is basically the future of your company-let alone program.We need a new "Sputnik the history of modern civilization as we the future of the world. Generation"of scientists and engineers. have known it for the past 100 years.As Whatever one's viewpoint,we need to our principal transportation fuel,oil has find an answer to this problem.What bet- Problem 2:Peaks in Oil Production been the basis of our country's power ter time to take on these issues than now, Another charge to keep that should be at and prosperity.What will we do when with the great resources available in the top of the president's list is the assur- there is no longer enough oil and gas? President Bush's second term.What bet- ance of abundant,low-cost energy for us We do not yet have an answer. ter time to challenge American young and our posterity.We are used to living in people-and for that matter,the rest of a world where energy is cheap,and most Problem 3:Dealing with the world-to find ways to solve this of that energy was produced right here in Atmospheric CO, global conundrum? the United States.The majority of our oil The third charge to keep is care of the came from Texas,which was once the pre- environment for the century to come. Energy Heads“Top Ten" mier oil producer in the world and is still Confounding the energy challenge just Global Concerns the center of the world's oil and gas busi- described is the problem of global warm- Energy is not just "any old issue."Most nesses.Yet,as far back as 1970,we peaked ing.For decades now,the average surface people,in fact,understand its importance in the amount of oil we could produce in temperature of the earth has been going very well.When I have given talks on this country.Even though we still think of up.During this same time,the CO,level in this subject before,I have often asked Texas as the land of people getting crazy- the atmosphere has also been increasing people in the audience to name the most rich discovering oil in their back yard,in (see Figure 2).The sharp upswing in tem- critical problems we will have to confront fact Texas has been a net importer of ener- perature and CO2 levels during th e 20th as we go through this century.In every gy for over a decade now,with billions of century corresponds with the rise of fossil case,after a bit of discussion,the audi- energy dollars a year going out of the state. fuels as the world's primary energy source ences have agreed that energy is the sin- Saudi Arabia and the Middle East are now and the vast increase in global population. gle most important issue we face. the dominant oil sources.Even their oil It might turn out that there is no causal Why is energy always preeminent? production,however,will eventually connection between CO,and the warm- When we look at a prioritized list of the --Asians citizens,all fields of Science Engineering -US citizens.all fields of Science Engineering 25.000 (excluding psychology social sciences) 1.0f a Highest Temperature --US citizens,Physical Sciences in Millennium Engineering only 20,000 0.0 虽 -0.5 15.000 380 corals,ice cores and historical records (blue). -1.0 360 10.000 回 340 320 300 5.000 280 260 0 8 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Year Figure 1.Eamed doctoral degrees in science and engineering. Figure 2.Global warming over the past millennium,by temperature Extracted from Science and Engineering Indicators 2,National and CO2 level.(a)Data from thermometers (red)and from tree rings, Science Board (NSB 04-01),2004,www.nsf.gov/nsb/documents/ corals,ice cores,and historical records(blue):(b)data from mea- reports.htm (accessed April 2005). surements at Mauna Loa Observatory:Hawaii (red)and ice core records(blue).Courtesy of Marty Hoffert of New York University MRS BULLETIN·VOLUME30·JUWE20O5 413MATERIAL MATTERS MRS BULLETIN • VOLUME 30 • JUNE 2005 413 the United States, pointing to a critical gap in its space technology and sparking a dramatic enhancement in technical and science education programs. My hope is that President Bush will take up the charge of promoting careers in science—particularly in the physical sciences and engineering. Somehow, if he can find a way, our president should try to do today for science and engineering what John Kennedy so effectively did in the early 1960s with the Apollo space program. We need a new “Sputnik Generation” of scientists and engineers. Problem 2: Peaks in Oil Production Another charge to keep that should be at the top of the president’s list is the assur￾ance of abundant, low-cost energy for us and our posterity. We are used to living in a world where energy is cheap, and most of that energy was produced right here in the United States. The majority of our oil came from Texas, which was once the pre￾mier oil producer in the world and is still the center of the world’s oil and gas busi￾nesses. Yet, as far back as 1970, we peaked in the amount of oil we could produce in this country. Even though we still think of Texas as the land of people getting crazy￾rich discovering oil in their back yard, in fact Texas has been a net importer of ener￾gy for over a decade now, with billions of energy dollars a year going out of the state. Saudi Arabia and the Middle East are now the dominant oil sources. Even their oil production, however, will eventually decline. At some point, almost certainly within this decade, we will peak in the amount of oil that is produced worldwide. Even though there will be massive amounts of oil produced for the rest of this century, the volume produced each year will never again reach the amount pro￾duced at its peak. This year, 2005, might very well end up being the historic date of that global peak. Oil, along with gas, is tremendously important. The history of oil is basically the history of modern civilization as we have known it for the past 100 years. As our principal transportation fuel, oil has been the basis of our country’s power and prosperity. What will we do when there is no longer enough oil and gas? We do not yet have an answer. Problem 3: Dealing with Atmospheric CO2 The third charge to keep is care of the environment for the century to come. Confounding the energy challenge just described is the problem of global warm￾ing. For decades now, the average surface temperature of the earth has been going up. During this same time, the CO2 level in the atmosphere has also been increasing (see Figure 2). The sharp upswing in tem￾perature and CO2 levels during th e 20th century corresponds with the rise of fossil fuels as the world’s primary energy source and the vast increase in global population. It might turn out that there is no causal connection between CO2 and the warm￾ing of the earth—that if we wait long enough we will see this warming trend go back down, even though CO2 levels keep going up. On the other hand, most likely there is a causal connection. Even if you were a conservative businessperson, you would probably agree that if a vice president of your corporation told you that there is no need to worry about CO2 in the atmosphere, you would consider that too risky a belief on which to base the future of your company—let alone the future of the world. Whatever one’s viewpoint, we need to find an answer to this problem. What bet￾ter time to take on these issues than now, with the great resources available in President Bush’s second term. What bet￾ter time to challenge American young people—and for that matter, the rest of the world—to find ways to solve this global conundrum? Energy Heads “Top Ten” Global Concerns Energy is not just “any old issue.” Most people, in fact, understand its importance very well. When I have given talks on this subject before, I have often asked people in the audience to name the most critical problems we will have to confront as we go through this century. In every case, after a bit of discussion, the audi￾ences have agreed that energy is the sin￾gle most important issue we face. Why is energy always preeminent? When we look at a prioritized list of the Figure 2. Global warming over the past millennium, by temperature and CO2 level. (a) Data from thermometers (red) and from tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records (blue); (b) data from mea￾surements at Mauna Loa Observatory: Hawaii (red) and ice core records (blue). Courtesy of Marty Hoffert of New York University. Figure 1. Earned doctoral degrees in science and engineering. Extracted from Science and Engineering Indicators 2, National Science Board (NSB 04-01), 2004, www.nsf.gov/nsb/documents/ reports.htm (accessed April 2005)