A73/208 4. The magnitude of the decline in the trade of goods and services observed in 015 and 2016 reflected not only cyclical factors, such as lower investments and commodity prices, but also a change in the international integration process. Many economies began focusing on a more national development path as a result of the ongoing decline in the vertical specialization process across countries. Indeed, the liance of the manufacturing sector on imported inputs(measured by the share of intermediate imports over the exports of manufacturing goods) has declined in many countries during the past decade. 2 5. The trade downturn of 2015 and 2016 was broad-based and geographically widespread. Developing countries were hit hard by the collapse in trade -in most cases, harder than developed countries(see figure n) Figure ll Export slumps and rebounds Economies in transition South asia Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East asia Developed countries 50%40%30%20%10%0%10%20% Decline in 2015 and 2016 Rebound in 2017 Source: UNCTAD secretariat. based on data from UNCTADstat Note Growth rates refer to the 2014 baseline 6. Although trade rebounded strongly in 2017, the value of merchandise exports in 2017 remained well below that reached in 2014 for most countries. East Asia represents the only region for which exports returned to levels comparable to those seen in 2014, largely because of more limited declines in 2015 and 2016. Thi resilience is not surprising, as East Asian manufacturing exporters are in general more diversified and competitive in international markets, which allowed them to better weather the unfavourable economic environment. Looking beyond regional averages, most countries experienced rebounds in 2017 but with different magnitudes. Among the major economies, merchandise exports rebounded by about g per cent in the European Union, 8 per cent in China and 6.5 per cent in the United States of America Emerging Asian economies fared well in general, with exports in the Republic of Korea by about 16 per cent and in India by 13 Wider diffe the magnitude of rebounds are observed in Africa, owing primarily to less diversifie export structures. Among major African economies, exports in South Africa grew by about 18.5 per cent, in Nigeria by about 15.5 per cent and in Ethiopia by about 8.5 pe In the case of China, for example, the rate of intermediate inputs over exports fell from almost 50 per cent in 2007 to about 30 per cent in 2017(UN Co 3/22A/73/208 18-12039 3/22 4. The magnitude of the decline in the trade of goods and services observed in 2015 and 2016 reflected not only cyclical factors, such as lower investments and commodity prices, but also a change in the international integration process. Many economies began focusing on a more national development path as a result of the ongoing decline in the vertical specialization process across countries. Indeed, the reliance of the manufacturing sector on imported inputs (measured by the share of intermediate imports over the exports of manufacturing goods) has declined in many countries during the past decade.2 5. The trade downturn of 2015 and 2016 was broad-based and geographically widespread. Developing countries were hit hard by the collapse in trade — in most cases, harder than developed countries (see figure II). Figure II Export slumps and rebounds (Percentage) Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data from UNCTADstat. Note: Growth rates refer to the 2014 baseline. 6. Although trade rebounded strongly in 2017, the value of merchandise exports in 2017 remained well below that reached in 2014 for most countries. East Asia represents the only region for which exports returned to levels comparable to those seen in 2014, largely because of more limited declines in 2015 and 2016. This resilience is not surprising, as East Asian manufacturing exporters are in general more diversified and competitive in international markets, which allowed them to better weather the unfavourable economic environment. Looking beyond regional averages, most countries experienced rebounds in 2017 but with different magnitudes. Among the major economies, merchandise exports rebounded by about 9 per cent in the European Union, 8 per cent in China and 6.5 per cent in the United States of America. Emerging Asian economies fared well in general, with exports in the Republic of Korea growing by about 16 per cent and in India by 13 per cent. Wider differences in the magnitude of rebounds are observed in Africa, owing primarily to less diversified export structures. Among major African economies, exports in South Africa grew by about 18.5 per cent, in Nigeria by about 15.5 per cent and in Ethiopia by about 8.5 per __________________ 2 In the case of China, for example, the rate of intermediate inputs over exports fell from almost 50 per cent in 2007 to about 30 per cent in 2017 (UN Comtrade). -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Developed countries East Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East/North Africa South Asia Economies in transition Decline in 2015 and 2016 Rebound in 2017