A73/208 L. Trends in trade In 2017, after two years of decline, global trade finally rebounded. It grew by 9 per cent compared with the previous year, reaching a value close to $23 trillion Despite the increase, international trade remained about $1. 2 trillion below its peak attained in 2014. According to forecasts from the World Trade Organization(WTO) and the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, trade is expected to grow by about 4.5 per cent in 2018, in line with global output 2. Notwithstanding the recovery, it is worth noting that there has been a change in international trade dynamics. The steady increase in international trade that characterized most of the 1990s and 2000s has been replaced by a more erratic pattern and generalized fragility. After the strong recovery from the financial crisis of 2008, trade grew at a sluggish pace and then plunged by 12 per cent in 2015 and by 3 per cent in 2016. Two consecutive years of decline in the val ue of international trade had not been recorded since the early 1980s 3. The performance of international trade during the past five years has been at odds not only with the previous trend, but also with the overall economic environment. While international trade growth outperformed economic growth during most of the past three decades, in 2015 and 2016 global output increased while the value of international trade decreased. These dynamics are captured by one of the most commonly used indices to gauge globalization trends- the ratio of the value of world trade over global output(see figure D). This index stalled at about 62 per cent between 2011 and 2014 and then fell during 2015 and 2016-two years that are often referred to as a de-globalization period. The index picked up in 2017, but remains below its peak Figure I Economic and international trade growth: 2000-2018 050 :,H,:a -10 1 GDP(% change) 3:38:: Trade(% change Trade/Global output Source: Calculations of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)secretariat are based on data from UNCTADstat Note: Data for 2018 are projections a decrease in the value of trade during a period of economic expansion has not been recorded since 2001, although the decline in international trade at that time was marginal (not even I per cent) 2/22A/73/208 2/22 18-12039 I. Trends in trade 1. In 2017, after two years of decline, global trade finally rebounded. It grew by 9 per cent compared with the previous year, reaching a value close to $23 trillion. Despite the increase, international trade remained about $1.2 trillion below its peak, attained in 2014. According to forecasts from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, trade is expected to grow by about 4.5 per cent in 2018, in line with global output. 2. Notwithstanding the recovery, it is worth noting that there has been a change in international trade dynamics. The steady increase in international trade that characterized most of the 1990s and 2000s has been replaced by a more erratic pattern and generalized fragility. After the strong recovery from the financial crisis of 2008, trade grew at a sluggish pace and then plunged by 12 per cent in 2015 and by 3 per cent in 2016. Two consecutive years of decline in the value of international trade had not been recorded since the early 1980s. 3. The performance of international trade during the past five years has been at odds not only with the previous trend, but also with the overall economic environment. While international trade growth outperformed economic growth during most of the past three decades, in 2015 and 2016 global output increased while the value of international trade decreased.1 These dynamics are captured by one of the most commonly used indices to gauge globalization trends — the ratio of the value of world trade over global output (see figure I). This index stalled at about 62 per cent between 2011 and 2014 and then fell during 2015 and 2016 — two years that are often referred to as a de-globalization period. The index picked up in 2017, but remains below its peak. Figure I Economic and international trade growth: 2000–2018 Source: Calculations of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) secretariat are based on data from UNCTADstat. Note: Data for 2018 are projections. __________________ 1 A decrease in the value of trade during a period of economic expansion has not been recorded since 2001, although the decline in international trade at that time was marginal (not even 1 per cent). 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Trade over global output (percentage) Percentage change in trade and GDP GDP (% change) Trade (% change) Trade/Global output