第3期 上海行政学院学报 2009年 ④关于威胁感知的文献，参见，Schelling,T,The strategy of conict,.(London,Oxford and New York:Oxford University Press, 1971),Jervis,R..Perception and misperception in international politics,(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1976).Jervis,R.. Lebow,R.and Stein,J..Psychology and deterrence,(Baltimore and London:Johns Hopkins University Press,1985).and Buzan.B..Peo ple,states and fear:An agenda forinternational security studies in the post-Cold Warera.(Boulder,CO:Lynne Rienner,1991).Zhu. Tianbiao,Developmental States and Threat Perceptions in Northeast Asia Journal of Conflict,Security and Derelopment 2(1):6-29.April 2002. ⑤本文关于技术进步的政府规模，主要指的是政府对研发的资助与新产品的采购。 ©参见Mearsheimer,John J.The traged山y of Great Power politics,New York:Norton,.20O3.第四章。 7Gerschenkron,Alexander.1962.Economic bockwardness in historical perspective:a book of essays.Cambridge (Mass.): Harvard University Press. ⑧关于国际权力分布的变化带来国家行为变化的研究，参见结构现实主义的著作，如Kenneth A.Walz,Theory of International Politics,Mass.Addison-Wesley Pub,1979 9 Robert C.,The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy Allen,The Canadian Journal of Economics /Revue canadienne d'Economique,Vol.34.No.4.(Nov.,2001).p.860. 四当然，当时西方认为苏联的统计有着夸大的成分。但是，即便是根据当时西方对苏联经济发展成就的估算，苏联重建的成绩 也是相当惊人。参见.Philip Hanson.The rise and fall of the Soviet economy:an economic history of the USSR from I945,London: Longman,2003.p25. ①有研究，如民主和平论指出，民主和平论就会宜称，民主国家之间不打仗。关于民主和平论，参见，ohn Owen,How Liberal-- ism Produces Democratic Peace.International Security.19:2 (Fall 1994).pp.50-86.And see.Michael Doyle.Liberalism and World Pol- itics.American Political Science Review 80:4(1986).pp.1151-69.Just as Glaser claims that greedy states,not the security dilemma.are the problems.Sce,Charles L.Glaser,The Security Dilemma Revisited.World Politics,.S0:1(October 1997,pp.171-201.而苏联和美国 不仅政治制度不同，其不同是全方位的。意识形态上，苏联是共产主义的意识形态，与当时美国为代表的资本主义的意识形态形成 旗帜鲜明的竞争：在发展模式上，苏联坚持中央计划经济，而美国则坚持市场经济：政治制度上，苏联坚持苏联共产党的领导，而美 国则实行两党竞选轮换的西方民主制：另外，在军事上，苏联召集了东欧等共产主义国家组成了华沙条约，在军事上与美国为首的 北约集团对峙。 ②关于冷战期间持续的和平，参见Gaddis.John Lewis..The long peace:inquiries into the history of the cold ar,New York: Oxford University Press,1987.而关于冷战的其它主要研究，参见Westad.Odd Ame..The global Cold War:third world interventions and the making of our times,Cambridge:New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.Melvyn P.Leffler.For the Soul of Mankind: The United States,the Soviet Union,and the Cold War.New York:Hill and Wang.2007:Zubok,Vladislav.A Failed Empire:The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbacher (Chapel Hill:University of North Carolina Press.2007 BTed Hopf,Polarity,The Offense Defense Balance,and War.The American Political Science Reviev,Vol.85.No.2.(Jun., 1991) Braun,Emest,Revolution in miniature:the history and impact of semiconductor electronics re-explored in an updated and re- vised,New York:Cambridge University Press,1982.p95. Mowery,David,and Nathan Rosenberg.1998.Paths of Innovation:Technological Change in 20th-Century America.New York: Cambridge University Pressp.p30. Natinal Science Board.2004.Science and Engineering Indicators.2004.Arlington,VA:National Science Foundation,NSB 04- 1A. ⑦因此，不能像熊彼特那样强调发明永远在那里，创新只是需要将已有的发明商业化。事实上，即便是大量发明的涌现，也需 要大规模的资金投入。否者，后继的商业化也就成了无源之水。而即使是技术的开发（①evelopment也不仅仅是满足普通消费者的 需求。技术的进一步开发也离不开政府的资助。关于熊彼特的创新理论认为发明总会出现，而创新不仅是发明，更重要的是商业 ,Schumpeter.Joseph Alois.The theory of economic development:an inquiry into profits,capital,credit,interest,and the busi- ness cycle,New Brunswick,NJ.:Transaction Books,1983. Kenneth Flamm.1988.Creating the Computer:Government,Industry and High Technology.Washinton,DC:Brookings Institution Press,p16. ①（美）戴维F·诺布尔：《生产力工业自动化的社会史》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年，第8页。 Kenneth Flamm.1988.Creating the Computer:Gorernment,Industry and High Technology.Washington.DC:Brookings Institu- tion Press,pl6. C 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved.http://www.cnki. 78④ 关于威胁感知的文献，参见，Schelling, T., The strategy of conict, (London, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 1971), Jervis, R., Perception and misperception in international politics, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976), Jervis, R., Lebow, R. and Stein, J., Psychology and deterrence, (Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), and Buzan, B., Peo ple, states and fear: An agenda forinternational security studies in the post -Cold Warera, (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1991). Zhu, Tianbiao, Developmental States and Threat Perceptions in Northeast Asia Journal of Conflict, Security and Development 2(1): 6-29, April 2002. ⑤ 本文关于技术进步的政府规模，主要指的是政府对研发的资助与新产品的采购。 ⑥ 参见Mearsheimer, John J. The tragedy of Great Power politics, New York : Norton, 2003.第四章。 ⑦ 参见Gerschenkron, Alexander. 1962. Economic backwardness in historical perspective: a book of essays. Cambridge (Mass.): Harvard University Press. ⑧ 关于国际权力分布的变化带来国家行为变化的研究，参见结构现实主义的著作，如Kenneth A. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Mass. Addison-Wesley Pub, 1979. ⑨ 参见, Robert C. , The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy Allen , The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d' Economique, Vol. 34, No. 4, (Nov., 2001), p.860. ⑩ 当然，当时西方认为苏联的统计有着夸大的成分。但是，即便是根据当时西方对苏联经济发展成就的估算，苏联重建的成绩 也是相当惊人。参见,Philip Hanson, The rise and fall of the Soviet economy : an economic history of the USSR from 1945, London : Longman, 2003, p25. 輥輯訛 有研究，如民主和平论指出，民主和平论就会宣称，民主国家之间不打仗。关于民主和平论，参见，ohn Owen, How Liberal－ ism Produces Democratic Peace, International Security, 19:2 (Fall 1994), pp. 50-86. And see, Michael Doyle, Liberalism and World Pol－ itics. American Political Science Review 80:4 (1986), pp. 1151-69. Just as Glaser claims that greedy states, not the security dilemma, are the problems. See, Charles L. Glaser, The Security Dilemma Revisited, World Politics, 50:1 (October 1997), pp. 171-201.而苏联和美国 不仅政治制度不同，其不同是全方位的。意识形态上，苏联是共产主义的意识形态，与当时美国为代表的资本主义的意识形态形成 旗帜鲜明的竞争；在发展模式上，苏联坚持中央计划经济，而美国则坚持市场经济；政治制度上，苏联坚持苏联共产党的领导，而美 国则实行两党竞选轮换的西方民主制；另外，在军事上，苏联召集了东欧等共产主义国家组成了华沙条约，在军事上与美国为首的 北约集团对峙。 輥輰訛 关于冷战期间持续的和平，参见Gaddis, John Lewis. The long peace : inquiries into the history of the cold war, New York : Oxford University Press, 1987. 而关于冷战的其它主要研究，参见Westad, Odd Arne. The global Cold War : third world interventions and the making of our times, Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2007.以及Melvyn P. Leffler. For the Soul of Mankind: The United States, the Soviet Union, and the Cold War . New York: Hill and Wang. 2007；Zubok,Vladislav . A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2007等。 輥輱訛 参见Ted Hopf, Polarity, The Offense Defense Balance, and War, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 2. (Jun., 1991). 輥輲訛 Braun, Ernest, Revolution in miniature : the history and impact of semiconductor electronics re-explored in an updated and re－ vised, New York : Cambridge University Press, 1982,p95. 輥輳訛 Mowery, David, and Nathan Rosenberg. 1998. Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th-Century America. New York: Cambridge University Pressp,p30. 輥輴訛 Natinal Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators. 2004. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation, NSB 04- 1A. 輥輵訛 因此，不能像熊彼特那样强调发明永远在那里，创新只是需要将已有的发明商业化。事实上，即便是大量发明的涌现，也需 要大规模的资金投入。否者，后继的商业化也就成了无源之水。而即使是技术的开发（Development）也不仅仅是满足普通消费者的 需求。技术的进一步开发也离不开政府的资助。.关于熊彼特的创新理论认为发明总会出现，而创新不仅是发明，更重要的是商业 化。参见，Schumpeter, Joseph Alois, The theory of economic development : an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the busi－ ness cycle, New Brunswick, N.J. : Transaction Books, 1983. 輥輶訛 Kenneth Flamm, 1988, Creating the Computer: Government, Industry and High Technology. Washinton, DC: Brookings Institution Press, p16. 輥輷訛 (美) 戴维·F·诺布尔：《生产力 工业自动化的社会史》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年，第8页。 輦輮訛 Kenneth Flamm, 1988, Creating the Computer: Government, Industry and High Technology. Washington, DC: Brookings Institu－ tion Press, p16. 第 3 期 上海行政学院学报 2009 年 78