Articles 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (Continued from previous page) Sub-Saharan Africa,east Burundi 229-8(219-7-241-0) 1921(184-1-199-0) 175-8(166-5-187-2) 150-1(141-5-158.6) 130-3(115-1-148-0) Comoros 197-8(182-1-2144) 159-5(1533-166-1) 115-6(1109-120-6) 834(751-92.8) 615(52-972-1) Djibouti 116-2(100-2-133-8) 1113(103-5-119-2) 110-0(104-6-116-1) 896(84-8-944) 66-7(589-74-6) Eritrea 232-0(217-7-248.5) 185-8(1783-191-8) 142-7(138.2-148-4) 100-6(93-0-108-7) 78.2(66-9-945) Ethiopia 255-4(240-1-270-5) 237-1(229-1-245-6) 201-9(194-9-2093) 136-9(130-7-142-3) 101-0(89-3-117-6) Kenya 142-0(137-2-1467) 112-2(1093-115-0) 103-8(101-2-106-8) 1004(959-104-4) 82272-0-91-9) Madagascar 188-4(1790-197-40 180-8(174-5-186-7) 158-0(153-0-163-2) 1045(993-109-6) 70.5(62.9-797刀 Malawi 343-9(330.3-358-1) 260-6(252-3-2701) 211-3(204-8-217-6) 148-4(1434-153-4) 96.8(843-111-6) Mozambique 271-3(255-9-287-9) 2315(223-2-241-1) 226-6(218.7-2361) 1635(156-1-170-8) 1337(114-3-157-9) Rwanda 2323(222.9-241-5) 2037(1945-2139) 169-4(161-7-177-6) 1660(158-0-174-6) 102-9(88.2-118-6) Somalia 206-3(178-7-240.6) 189-0(171-0-2054) 174-2(164-8-1841) 145-1(137-3-1533) 111-4(98.4-123-4) Sudan 152-1(146-8-157-3) 1412(136.4-1462) 118-1(111-4-124-3) 103-7(897-118-8) 921(77-5-110-3引 Tanzania 207-7(1995-2159) 1732(167-9178-0) 153-1(147-9-158-0) 127-1(1217-133-0) 98.4(85-6-116-2) Uganda 190-4(1838-196.3) 185-9(1815-190-7刀 167-8(1635-172-1) 1411(136.8-145.6 1167(105-0-127-5) Zambia 181-8(175-0-1894) 168-3(1632-173-4) 172-8(167.9-178-1) 143-4(138-4-149-1) 118.8(106-3-134-0) Sub-Saharan Africa,southern Botswana 98-4(92-4-103-8) 621(59-1-656) 542(48.5-611) 59-0(50-3-69-8) 49137-7-62-2) Lesotho 172-0(160-9-182-3) 1139(1091-118.8) 94-5(90-8-982) 1049(1002-109-7刀 96-878-8-115-6) Namibia 111-5(1051-118-2) 954(91-7-996) 72-0(693-75-2) 621(592-65-7) 549(45-6-644) SouthAfrica 132-8(1192-146-8) 86-8(81-2-92-2) 57-6(54-2-611) 37-337-0-37-6) 50-9(43-2-603) Swaziland 188-0(167-2-210-3) 122.3(115-0-130-5) 73-7(693-78.4) 99-3(93-7-1064) 1012(79-5-1260) Zimbabwe 111-3(106-5-116-4) 932(89996-9) 73-3(70-4-76-1) 73-7(70-1-77-4) 70-4(57-3-86-1 Sub-Saharan Africa,west Benin 280-6(269-5-293-1) 2221(215-0-228-1) 176-5(172-0-180-9) 137-0(132-7-141-8) 100-7(89-3-111-3) Burkina Faso 319-5(305-5-334-2) 250-2(242-5-258-0) 204-7(1982-211-0) 172-4(1654-1797刀 1337(1143-155-8) Cameroon 2143(205-8-223-6) 174-4(169-1-181.0) 143-5(138-4-148.3) 140-3(134-1-146-5) 1144(943-140-1) Cape Verde 116-2(107-0-130-5) 793(74-5-83-3) 58-2(54-8-61-3) 454(408-515) 323(269-391) Chad 260-0(2433-276-9) 2454(238-6-253-2) 210-8(204-9-216-5) 189-0(182-2-196-6) 168-7(149-1-190-0) Coted'lvoire 225-3217-1-234-8) 170-4(165-0-175-5) 149-2(145-3-153-6) 128-7(123-7-133-4) 107-3(953-121-5) Ghana 174-7(170-0-179-6) 1494(146-3-152-9) 122-2(119-5-125-0) 986(96-1-1011) 77-5722-83-4) Guinea 318-9(3007-336-9) 274-0(266-3-281.2) 226-8(220.9-232-5) 1742(168.4-180-2) 132-7(1193-146-1) Guinea-Bissau 295-0(263-4-3302) 262.4(2505-275-9) 233-2(224-9-242-0) 1911(182-4-199-6) 158.6(143-3-177-9) Liberia 271-6(257-9-285-6) 240-6(227-8-252-70 235-4(223-6-247-7 172-2(163-4-181-5) 98.9(86-6-113-0) Mali 370-33594-382-3) 3017(2943-309-7刀 254-0(247-2-260-0) 212-4(2057-2193) 161-2(142-6-179-5) Mauritania 1899(182-6-1967刀 143-1(138-9147-2) 112-8(109-4-116-2) 100-3(964-1047) 85-577-8-95-0) Niger 354-7(3414-368-2) 326-5(317-1-336-2) 297-0(2892-305-3) 2237216-0-231-5) 161-1(142-0-1853) Nigeria 224-4(214-1-236-5) 200-5(1922-208-7) 194-1(187-1-201-8) 177-0(169-2-185-8) 157-0(140-9-174-0) Sao Tome and Principe 132-1(1191-146-3) 114-8(106-6-1247刀 1094(1015-1183) 749(674-82-8) 62-2(50-2-76-2) Senegal 278-5(270-6-287-1) 203-1(197-4-2082) 146-5(142-0-150-4) 1235(119-1-128-2) 86.57-7-97-0) Sierra Leone 3514(3257-378-8) 2924(279-7-3061) 241-6(232-7-250-7) 196-9(188-8-207-2) 1391(1247-152-8) The Gambia 291-0(263-8-324-0j 209-8(195-4-224-6) 146-0(138-0-154-1) 120-8(113.9-128-1) 80-7(69-5-93-7刀 Togo 225-8(218-4-233-8) 175-0(170-5-180-2) 142-4(137-9-147-5) 1140(108.3-1196) 91-4(82-1-101.8) Countries are groupec n the basis of epidemiological profiles and geography 5 mortality is defined as the probability of dea ath between birth and age 5years. Table 1:Under-5 mortality(uncertainty interval)per 1000,by decade and national random effects on both intercept and slope explored and out-of-sample validity tests undertaken.The and the resulting probabilities were scaled to sum to best performing models from these analyses were 1.0 and converted to age-specific probabilities of death implemented.In out-of-sample predictive validity tests, conditional on survival to the beginning of the period.For with the models fitted repeatedly with data from random both steps,a range of different model specifications were sets of 80%of countries,the median relative error in the 1996 www.thelancet.com Vol 375 June 5,2010Articles 1996 www.thelancet.com Vol 375 June 5, 2010 and national random eff ects on both intercept and slope and the resulting probabilities were scaled to sum to 1·0 and converted to age-specifi c probabilities of death conditional on survival to the beginning of the period. For both steps, a range of diff erent model specifi cations were explored and out-of-sample validity tests undertaken. The best performing models from these analyses were implemented. In out-of-sample predictive validity tests, with the models fi tted repeatedly with data from random sets of 80% of countries, the median relative error in the 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (Continued from previous page) Sub-Saharan Africa, east Burundi 229·8 (219·7–241·0) 192·1 (184·1–199·0) 175·8 (166·5–187·2) 150·1 (141·5–158·6) 130·3 (115·1–148·0) Comoros 197·8 (182·1–214·4) 159·5 (153·3–166·1) 115·6 (110·9–120·6) 83·4 (75·1–92·8) 61·5 (52·9–72·1) Djibouti 116·2 (100·2–133·8) 111·3 (103·5–119·2) 110·0 (104·6–116·1) 89·6 (84·8–94·4) 66·7 (58·9–74·6) Eritrea 232·0 (217·7–248·5) 185·8 (178·3–191·8) 142·7 (138·2–148·4) 100·6 (93·0–108·7) 78·2 (66·9–94·5) Ethiopia 255·4 (240·1–270·5) 237·1 (229·1–245·6) 201·9 (194·9–209·3) 136·9 (130·7–142·3) 101·0 (89·3–117·6) Kenya 142·0 (137·2–146·7) 112·2 (109·3–115·0) 103·8 (101·2–106·8) 100·4 (95·9–104·4) 82·2 (72·0–91·9) Madagascar 188·4 (179·0–197·4) 180·8 (174·5–186·7) 158·0 (153·0–163·2) 104·5 (99·3–109·6) 70·5 (62·9–79·7) Malawi 343·9 (330·3–358·1) 260·6 (252·3–270·1) 211·3 (204·8–217·6) 148·4 (143·4–153·4) 96·8 (84·3–111·6) Mozambique 271·3 (255·9–287·9) 231·5 (223·2–241·1) 226·6 (218·7–236·1) 163·5 (156·1–170·8) 133·7 (114·3–157·9) Rwanda 232·3 (222·9–241·5) 203·7 (194·5–213·9) 169·4 (161·7–177·6) 166·0 (158·0–174·6) 102·9 (88·2–118·6) Somalia 206·3 (178·7–240·6) 189·0 (171·0–205·4) 174·2 (164·8–184·1) 145·1 (137·3–153·3) 111·4 (98·4–123·4) Sudan 152·1 (146·8–157·3) 141·2 (136·4–146·2) 118·1 (111·4–124·3) 103·7 (89·7–118·8) 92·1 (77·5–110·3) Tanzania 207·7 (199·5–215·9) 173·2 (167·9–178·0) 153·1 (147·9–158·0) 127·1 (121·7–133·0) 98·4 (85·6–116·2) Uganda 190·4 (183·8–196·3) 185·9 (181·5–190·7) 167·8 (163·5–172·1) 141·1 (136·8–145·6) 116·7 (105·0–127·5) Zambia 181·8 (175·0–189·4) 168·3 (163·2–173·4) 172·8 (167·9–178·1) 143·4 (138·4–149·1) 118·8 (106·3–134·0) Sub-Saharan Africa, southern Botswana 98·4 (92·4–103·8) 62·1 (59·1–65·6) 54·2 (48·5–61·1) 59·0 (50·3–69·8) 49·1 (37·7–62·2) Lesotho 172·0 (160·9–182·3) 113·9 (109·1–118·8) 94·5 (90·8–98·2) 104·9 (100·2–109·7) 96·8 (78·8–115·6) Namibia 111·5 (105·1–118·2) 95·4 (91·7–99·6) 72·0 (69·3–75·2) 62·1 (59·2–65·7) 54·9 (45·6–64·4) South Africa 132·8 (119·2–146·8) 86·8 (81·2–92·2) 57·6 (54·2–61·1) 37·3 (37·0–37·6) 50·9 (43·2–60·3) Swaziland 188·0 (167·2–210·3) 122·3 (115·0–130·5) 73·7 (69·3–78·4) 99·3 (93·7–106·4) 101·2 (79·5–126·0) Zimbabwe 111·3 (106·5–116·4) 93·2 (89·9–96·9) 73·3 (70·4–76·1) 73·7 (70·1–77·4) 70·4 (57·3–86·1) Sub-Saharan Africa, west Benin 280·6 (269·5–293·1) 222·1 (215·0–228·1) 176·5 (172·0–180·9) 137·0 (132·7–141·8) 100·7 (89·3–111·3) Burkina Faso 319·5 (305·5–334·2) 250·2 (242·5–258·0) 204·7 (198·2–211·0) 172·4 (165·4–179·7) 133·7 (114·3–155·8) Cameroon 214·3 (205·8–223·6) 174·4 (169·1–181·0) 143·5 (138·4–148·3) 140·3 (134·1–146·5) 114·4 (94·3–140·1) Cape Verde 116·2 (107·0–130·5) 79·3 (74·5–83·3) 58·2 (54·8–61·3) 45·4 (40·8–51·5) 32·3 (26·9–39·1) Chad 260·0 (243·3–276·9) 245·4 (238·6–253·2) 210·8 (204·9–216·5) 189·0 (182·2–196·6) 168·7 (149·1–190·0) Côte d’Ivoire 225·3 (217·1–234·8) 170·4 (165·0–175·5) 149·2 (145·3–153·6) 128·7 (123·7–133·4) 107·3 (95·3–121·5) Ghana 174·7 (170·0–179·6) 149·4 (146·3–152·9) 122·2 (119·5–125·0) 98·6 (96·1–101·1) 77·5 (72·2–83·4) Guinea 318·9 (300·7–336·9) 274·0 (266·3–281·2) 226·8 (220·9–232·5) 174·2 (168·4–180·2) 132·7 (119·3–146·1) Guinea-Bissau 295·0 (263·4–330·2) 262·4 (250·5–275·9) 233·2 (224·9–242·0) 191·1 (182·4–199·6) 158·6 (143·3–177·9) Liberia 271·6 (257·9–285·6) 240·6 (227·8–252·7) 235·4 (223·6–247·7) 172·2 (163·4–181·5) 98·9 (86·6–113·0) Mali 370·3 (359·4–382·3) 301·7 (294·3–309·7) 254·0 (247·2–260·0) 212·4 (205·7–219·3) 161·2 (142·6–179·5) Mauritania 189·9 (182·6–196·7) 143·1 (138·9–147·2) 112·8 (109·4–116·2) 100·3 (96·4–104·7) 85·5 (77·8–95·0) Niger 354·7 (341·4–368·2) 326·5 (317·1–336·2) 297·0 (289·2–305·3) 223·7 (216·0–231·5) 161·1 (142·0–185·3) Nigeria 224·4 (214·1–236·5) 200·5 (192·2–208·7) 194·1 (187·1–201·8) 177·0 (169·2–185·8) 157·0 (140·9–174·0) Sao Tome and Principe 132·1 (119·1–146·3) 114·8 (106·6–124·7) 109·4 (101·5–118·3) 74·9 (67·4–82·8) 62·2 (50·2–76·2) Senegal 278·5 (270·6–287·1) 203·1 (197·4–208·2) 146·5 (142·0–150·4) 123·5 (119·1–128·2) 86·5 (77·7–97·0) Sierra Leone 351·4 (325·7–378·8) 292·4 (279·7–306·1) 241·6 (232·7–250·7) 196·9 (188·8–207·2) 139·1 (124·7–152·8) The Gambia 291·0 (263·8–324·0) 209·8 (195·4–224·6) 146·0 (138·0–154·1) 120·8 (113·9–128·1) 80·7 (69·5–93·7) Togo 225·8 (218·4–233·8) 175·0 (170·5–180·2) 142·4 (137·9–147·5) 114·0 (108·3–119·6) 91·4 (82·1–101·8) Countries are grouped into 21 regions on the basis of epidemiological profi les and geography. Under-5 mortality is defi ned as the probability of death between birth and age 5 years. Table 1: Under-5 mortality (uncertainty interval) per 1000, by decade