Changing Exposure to Trade Figure 3.Predicted Effects of Declining Exposure to Trade Land-Labor Ratio High Low Class cleavage: Urban-rural cleavage: Advanced Economy Labor gains power. Land gains power. Land and capital lose. Labor and capital lose. (U.S.New Deal) (Western European Fascism) Urban-rural cleavage: Class cleavage: Backward Economy Labor and capital gain power. Land and capital gain power. Land loses. Labor loses. (South American Populism) (Asian Eastern European Fascism) economically advanced-although Ger- probably not under the domination-of many,after reparations and cessions of landowners and capitalists (Kato 1974; industrial territory,was surely less abun- Reischauer1974,186-87,195-99).(Sim- dant in capital than the United States- ilar suppressions of labor occurred in but the United States remained rich in China and Vietnam [Clubb 1972,135-40; land,which in Germany was scarce.Only Popkin 1979,xix,215].) an obtuse observer would claim that such In considering these contrasting re- factors as cultural inheritance and recent sponses,should we not take into account defeat in war played no role;but surely it that Argentina and Brazil were rich in is also important to recognize the sectoral land and poor in labor(recall the extent of impact of declining trade in the two immigration,especially into Argentina), societies.11 while in Japan (and,with local excep- As regards the less-developed econo- tions,in Asia generally)labor was abun- mies of the time,it may be profitable to dant and land was scarce (respectively, contrast the Depression's impact on such the lower left-and right-hand cells of South American cases as Argentina and Figure 3)? Brazil with its effects in the leading Asian country,Japan.In Argentina and Brazil, it is usually asserted(Cardoso and Faletto 1979,124-26 and Chap.5;Skidmore and A Preliminary Survey Smith 1984,59-60;Sunkel and Paz 1973, of the Evidence 352-54),the Depression gave rise to,or at the least strengthened,"Populist"coali- I want now to undertake a more sys- tions that united labor and the urban mid- tematic,if still sketchy,examination of dle classes in opposition to traditional, the historical evidence that bears on the landowning elites.In Japan,growing mili- hypotheses developed here.This effort tary influence suppressed representative will serve principally to suggest directions institutions and nascent workers'organi- for further research;it can in no way be zations,ruling in the interest-albeit described as conclusive. 1127Channinn Exposure to Trade Figure 3. Predicted Effects of Declining Exposure to Trade Land-Labor Ratio High Low Advanced Economy Class cleavage: Labor gains power. Land and capital lose. (U.S. New Deal) Urban-rural cleavage: Land gains power. Labor and capital lose. (Western European Fascism) Backward Economy Urban-rural cleavage: Labor and capital gain power. Land loses. Class cleavage: Land and capital gain power. Labor loses. (South American Populism) (Asian & Eastern European Fascism) economically advanced-although Ger￾many, after reparations and cessions of industrial territory, was surely less abun￾dant in capital than the United States￾but the United States remained rich in land, which in Germany was scarce. Only an obtuse observer would claim that such factors as cultural inheritance and recent defeat in war played no role; but surely it is also important to recognize the sectoral impact of declining trade in the two societies.l1 As regards the less-developed econo￾mies of the time, it may be profitable to contrast the Depression's impact on such South American cases as Argentina and Brazil with its effects in the leading Asian country, Japan. In Argentina and Brazil, it is usually asserted (Cardoso and Faletto 1979, 124-26 and Chap. 5; Skidmore and Smith 1984, 59-60; Sunkel and Paz 1973, 352-54), the Depression gave rise to, or at the least strengthened, "Populist" coali￾tions that united labor and the urban mid￾dle classes in opposition to traditional, landowning elites. In Japan, growing mili￾tary influence suppressed representative institutions and nascent workers' organi￾zations, ruling in the interest-albeit d probably not under the domination-of landowners and capitalists (Kato 1974; Reischauer 1974, 186-87, 195-99). (Sim￾ilar suppressions of labor occurred in China and Vietnam [Clubb 1972, 135-40; Popkin 1979, xix, 2151.) In considering these contrasting re￾sponses, should we not take into account that Argentina and Brazil were rich in land and poor in labor (recall the extent of immigration, especially into Argentina), while in Japan (and, with local excep￾tions, in Asia generally) labor was abun￾dant and land was scarce (respectively, the lower left- and right-hand cells of Figure 3)? A Preliminary Survey of the Evidence I want now to undertake a more sys￾tematic, if still sketchy, examination of the historical evidence that bears on the hypotheses developed here. This effort will serve principally to suggest directions for further research; it can in no way be described as conclusive