3 Flexible Exchange Rates,1973-1980: How Bad Have They Really Been? Richard Cooper 本文是研究浮动汇率制的一篇力作，发表于1981年。受到一些论文集的选载。 作者简介：Richard Cooper是当代美国著名经济学家，在国际金融和世界经 济方面发表了大量专著和论文。《相互依存经济学》(《The Economics of Interdependence》)是其代表作之一，现任美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院和经济 系讲座救授。 论文提要：本文从实证角度分析，认为1973年以来实行的浮动汇率制并非 错误的选择。世界经济当时经历的低增长率、高失业率和高通胀率并非浮动汇 率制本身造成，而是两次石油冲击和国际清偻力过度扩张引起的后果。文章分 析美国、日本和德国在1973-1980年间各自的名义有效汇率、实际有效汇率与 经常项日差额之间的关系，认为经通胀调整而得的实际汇率在这个期间相当稳 定。作者认为浮动汇率不是导致各国经济状况显著差异的原因，也不是冲击的 来源，而是阻止贸易保护主义的抬头和促进世界贸易的增长。最后作者探讨浮 动汇率制与隔绝外部冲击的关系。 Grand claims were once made for a system of flexible exchange rates.The classic statement was by Milton Friedman (1953),and the most complete development was Egon Sohmen's Flezible Exchange Rates:Theory and Controversy (1%1). Robert Triffin,while never discussing flexible exchange rates in analytical detail,has over around the loss of discipline on fiscal and monetary authorities that flexible exchange rates permit with respect to anti-inflation policies.Triffin has also been concerned with the that flexibe might lead to suurbu-price relationship that they would engender protectionist actions.He has feared the disintegrative impact that fexible exchange rates might have and,hence,upon political relations between nations,an impact that would run strongly counter to his lifelong objective of promoting economic integration among nations,and especially among European nations. (1955:16) 30