402 International Organization Challenging that narrative,I argue that Britain's capitulation after the Battle of Yorktown(1781)depended on the prior transformation of a pivotal policymaker's commercial strategy.This thesis defends the "idiographic"counterfactual that if Shelburne had not engaged Smith's ideas,the American Revolutionary War would have ended on vastly different terms.36 This,of course,cuts against the consensus that American independence was determined by the fortunes of war. Military Disaster Was an Insufficient Cause It is widely assumed that Britain's capitulation became "inevitable"after the loss at Yorktown in 1781.37 Students of international politics,however,know better than to blithely accept claims of historical inevitability.38 Determining the causal weight of multiple variables,however,proves difficult given that Britain's deci- sion to grant independence constitutes a single case.I use both of Fearon's meth- ods to test causality in such small-N cases.First,I increase the number of "actual cases"by comparing Yorktown to similar military setbacks.Second,I develop "counterfactual cases"that might have followed if Shelburne had not embraced Smith's ideas(all else remaining equal).39 Beyond the fact that it was the last major American battle in the war,it is dif- ficult to understand why Yorktown is so commonly assumed to have been"deci- sive."40 The loss at Yorktown,while substantial,was hardly Britain's wartime nadir. The loss at Saratoga in 1777 was equally costly from a military standpoint.4 More important,the loss prompted the French to formally commit to the American cause, transforming a "settler revolt"into a world war.2 The summer of 1779 was even bleaker.Following Spain's declaration of war,the French and Spanish amassed an invasion force of 30,000.43 Caught completely unprepared,the meager military force in Britain improvised coastal earthwork defenses while the government enacted universal impressment.44 Had unfavorable winds and sickness not fore- stalled the Franco-Spanish armada,the "American"Revolutionary War may have ended with the British surrendering to the French and Spanish in England. More nuanced accounts emphasize Britain's cumulative losses,suggesting that Yorktown put Britain over a critical threshold."As the nation began to feel the drain and disappointment of an unsuccessful war,"Harlow suggests,"bellicosity 36.Tetlock and Belkin 1996,7-8. 37.Whiteley1996,197. 38.Fearon1991,173. 39.Ibid,172. 40.Wood1990.292 41.Each campaign cost Britain roughly 8,000 troops.See Ketchum 1999,437;and Lengel 2005. 343. 42.Greene2000,100. 43.Mackesy1993,279-81. 44.Fitzmaurice 1875-76.vol.3.48.Challenging that narrative, I argue that Britain’s capitulation after the Battle of Yorktown ~1781! depended on the prior transformation of a pivotal policymaker’s commercial strategy+ This thesis defends the “idiographic” counterfactual that if Shelburne had not engaged Smith’s ideas, the American Revolutionary War would have ended on vastly different terms+ 36 This, of course, cuts against the consensus that American independence was determined by the fortunes of war+ Military Disaster Was an Insufficient Cause It is widely assumed that Britain’s capitulation became “inevitable” after the loss at Yorktown in 1781+ 37 Students of international politics, however, know better than to blithely accept claims of historical inevitability+ 38 Determining the causal weight of multiple variables, however, proves difficult given that Britain’s deci￾sion to grant independence constitutes a single case+ I use both of Fearon’s meth￾ods to test causality in such small-N cases+ First, I increase the number of “actual cases” by comparing Yorktown to similar military setbacks+ Second, I develop “counterfactual cases” that might have followed if Shelburne had not embraced Smith’s ideas ~all else remaining equal!+ 39 Beyond the fact that it was the last major American battle in the war, it is dif- ficult to understand why Yorktown is so commonly assumed to have been “deci￾sive+”40 The loss at Yorktown, while substantial, was hardly Britain’s wartime nadir+ The loss at Saratoga in 1777 was equally costly from a military standpoint+ 41 More important, the loss prompted the French to formally commit to the American cause, transforming a “settler revolt” into a world war+ 42 The summer of 1779 was even bleaker+ Following Spain’s declaration of war, the French and Spanish amassed an invasion force of 30,000+ 43 Caught completely unprepared, the meager military force in Britain improvised coastal earthwork defenses while the government enacted universal impressment+ 44 Had unfavorable winds and sickness not fore￾stalled the Franco-Spanish armada, the “American” Revolutionary War may have ended with the British surrendering to the French and Spanish in England+ More nuanced accounts emphasize Britain’s cumulative losses, suggesting that Yorktown put Britain over a critical threshold+ “As the nation began to feel the drain and disappointment of an unsuccessful war,” Harlow suggests, “bellicosity 36+ Tetlock and Belkin 1996, 7–8+ 37+ Whiteley 1996, 197+ 38+ Fearon 1991, 173+ 39+ Ibid+, 172+ 40+ Wood 1990, 292+ 41+ Each campaign cost Britain roughly 8,000 troops+ See Ketchum 1999, 437; and Lengel 2005, 343+ 42+ Greene 2000, 100+ 43+ Mackesy 1993, 279–81+ 44+ Fitzmaurice 1875–76, vol+ 3, 48+ 402 International Organization