Analogies: The Rest of the Story 364 Polls: Problems and pitfalls 366 Self-Selected Samples 366 Slanted Questions 368 Playing by the Numbers 368 Recap 371 Exercises 373 Chapter 11 Causal Explanation 385 Two Kinds of Explanations 386 Physical Causal Explanations 386 Behavioral Causal Explanations 387 Explanatory Adequacy: A Relative Concept 389 The Importance of Testability 389 Nontestable Explanations 389 Circular Explanations 392 Unnecessary Complexity 392 Forming Hypotheses 393 The Method of Difference 393 The Method of Agreement 394 Causal Mechanisms and Background Knowledge 396 The Best Diagnosis Method 397 General Causal Claims 399 Confirming Causal Hypotheses 400 Controlled Cause-to-Effect Experiments 400 Alternative Methods of Testing Causal Hypotheses in Human Populations 402 Nonexperimental Cause-to-Effect Studies 402 Nonexperimental Effect-to-Cause Studies 403 Experiments on Animals 403 Mistakes in Causal Reasoning 404 Confusing Effect with Cause in Medical Tests 405 Overlooking Statistical Regression 406 Proof by Absence of Disproof 409 Appeal to Anecdote 409 Confusing Explanations with Excuses 410 Causation in the law 410Revised Pages viii CONTENTS Analogies: The Rest of the Story 364 Polls: Problems and Pitfalls 366 Self-Selected Samples 366 Slanted Questions 368 Playing by the Numbers 368 Recap 371 Exercises 373 Chapter 11 Causal Explanation 385 Two Kinds of Explanations 386 Physical Causal Explanations 386 Behavioral Causal Explanations 387 Explanatory Adequacy: A Relative Concept 389 The Importance of Testability 389 Nontestable Explanations 389 Circular Explanations 392 Unnecessary Complexity 392 Forming Hypotheses 393 The Method of Difference 393 The Method of Agreement 394 Causal Mechanisms and Background Knowledge 396 The Best Diagnosis Method 397 General Causal Claims 399 Confirming Causal Hypotheses 400 Controlled Cause-to-Effect Experiments 400 Alternative Methods of Testing Causal Hypotheses in Human Populations 402 Nonexperimental Cause-to-Effect Studies 402 Nonexperimental Effect-to-Cause Studies 403 Experiments on Animals 403 Mistakes in Causal Reasoning 404 Confusing Effect with Cause in Medical Tests 405 Overlooking Statistical Regression 406 Proof by Absence of Disproof 409 Appeal to Anecdote 409 Confusing Explanations with Excuses 410 Causation in the Law 410 moo86677_fm_i-xxii.indd viii 6/23/08 3:45:14 PM