Included observations:106 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. C 100.0492 0.584318171.22400.0000 M2Z -0.0110370.140613-0.0784930.9376 M2Z-1) 0.016169 0.137998 0.117166 0.9070 M2Z(-2) 0.053044 0.136808 0.387723 0.6991 M2Z(-3) 0.028679 0.1431550.200333 0.8416 M2Z(-4) 0.1308250.139183 0.9399510.3496 M2Z(-5) 0.137794 0.142502 0.966965 0.3359 M2Z(-6) 0.248778 0.1433941.734924 0.0859 R-squared 0.055557 Mean dependent var 101.1377 Adjusted R-squared -0.011904 S.D.dependent var 2.347946 S.E.of regression 2.361879 Akaike info criterion 4.629264 Sum squared resid 546.6902 Schwarz criterion 4.830278 Log likelihood 237.3510 F-statistic 0.823546 Durbin-Watson stat 0.094549 Prob(F-statistic) 0.570083 从回归结果来看，M2Z各滞后期的系数逐步增加，表明当期货币供应量的变化对物价 水平的影响要经过一段时间才能逐步显现。但各滞后期的系数的t统计量值不显著，因此还 不能据此判断滞后期究竟有多长。为此，我们做滞后12个月的分布滞后模型的估计，结果 见表77。 表7.7 Dependent Variable:TBZS Method:Least Squares Date:07103/05Time:17:09 Sample(adiusted):1997:02 2005:05 Included observations:100 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob 98.356680.467897210.2102 0.0000 M2Z -0.167665 0.121743 -1.377203 0.1720 41 41 Included observations: 106 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 100.0492 0.584318 171.2240 0.0000 M2Z -0.011037 0.140613 -0.078493 0.9376 M2Z(-1) 0.016169 0.137998 0.117166 0.9070 M2Z(-2) 0.053044 0.136808 0.387723 0.6991 M2Z(-3) 0.028679 0.143155 0.200333 0.8416 M2Z(-4) 0.130825 0.139183 0.939951 0.3496 M2Z(-5) 0.137794 0.142502 0.966965 0.3359 M2Z(-6) 0.248778 0.143394 1.734924 0.0859 R-squared 0.055557 Mean dependent var 101.1377 Adjusted R-squared -0.011904 S.D. dependent var 2.347946 S.E. of regression 2.361879 Akaike info criterion 4.629264 Sum squared resid 546.6902 Schwarz criterion 4.830278 Log likelihood -237.3510 F-statistic 0.823546 Durbin-Watson stat 0.094549 Prob(F-statistic) 0.570083 从回归结果来看，M2Z 各滞后期的系数逐步增加，表明当期货币供应量的变化对物价 水平的影响要经过一段时间才能逐步显现。但各滞后期的系数的 t 统计量值不显著，因此还 不能据此判断滞后期究竟有多长。为此，我们做滞后 12 个月的分布滞后模型的估计，结果 见表 7.7。 表 7.7 Dependent Variable: TBZS Method: Least Squares Date: 07/03/05 Time: 17:09 Sample(adjusted): 1997:02 2005:05 Included observations: 100 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 98.35668 0.467897 210.2102 0.0000 M2Z -0.167665 0.121743 -1.377203 0.1720