762 Economic Development and Cultural change hensive Report on Study of the Development of Grain and Cash Crops Produc tion in China, in Srudy of the Development of Grain and Cash Crop Develop- ment in China, voL. 4, ed. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(Beijing Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 1985) 6. L Y Chen and A Buckwell, Chinese Grain Economy and Policy(wall ingford: C A.B. International, 1991) 7. Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Projections Model for Predicting Agricultural Output: An Introduction, ' in Re earch in China-Issues and Data Sources, Proceedings of Western Regional Coordinating Committee 101(Washington, D.C., April 21-22, 1995) 8. K. Anderson, B. Dimaranan, T. hertel and w. martin,"'Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-Wide Perspective, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 41, no. 1(1997) 19-4 9. R. Garnaut and G. Ma, Grain in China: A Report(Canberra: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, East Asian Analytical Unit, 1992) 10. C. Carter and F. Zhong, ""Chinas Past and Future Role in the grair Trade, Economic Development and Cultural Change 39 July 1991): 791-814 12. Alternatively, if the baseline starting points differ, significant variations in predictions can occur, even if the projection frameworks are alike in all other aspects. In fact, because of differences in estimates of meat consumption, one of the factors that causes the largest differences among the models is that some analysts use per capita meat production figures as a starting point for their base line take-off point, while others use figures based on consumption figures. Un fortunately, because of overreporting of production figures(caused by double geration) and underestimation of consumption (because of the fact that current enumeration techniques overlook much of the production-based estimates of demand have grown to be more than 200% higher than estimates based on consumption data. In a recent conference, the postcon ference workshop on"China's Food Economy in the 21st Century, at the an- nual meetings of the American Agricultural Economics Association, Toronto, July 31, 1997, the baseline level of meat demand projections was determined to be one of the single most important factors distinguishing the various predicti 13. Brown(. I above) 14. Carter and Zhong 15. Garnaut and Ma: Chen and Buckwell 16. Economic Research service 17. High import projections for supply-side reasons come from Brown and Carter and Zhong. Those for demand-side reasons are from Garnaut and Ma and the Economic research service 18. S, Fan, G. Cramer, and E. wailes," The Impact of Trade Liberalization on China,'s Rice Sector, ' Agricultural Economics 11(September 1994): 71-81 19. Fan and Agcaoili (n 4 above); and the Economic Research Service 20. Carter and Zhong(n. 10 above); and Fan, Cramer, and wailes 1. T. Sicular, "Redefining State, Plan and Market: China's Reforms in Agriculture Commerce, China quarterly 143(December 1995): 1020-46; and Watson, ""Chinas Agricultural Reforms: Experiences and Achievements of the Agricultural Sector in the Market Reform Process, Working Paper no 94/ (University of Adelaide, Chinese Economy Research Unit, Adelaide, 1994) 22. S. Rozelle, A. Park, J. Huang, and H. Jin, "Bureaucrat to Entrepreneur: Copyright 1999. All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved