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Consistency e Under the Gauss-Markov assumptionS OLS IS BLUE, but in other cases it wont always be possible to find unbiased estimators o In those cases, we may settle for estimators that are consistent, meaning as n→>∞,the distribution of the estimator collapses to the parameter value Economics 20- Prof anderson
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Parallels with Simple regression Bo is still the intercept B, to Bk all called slope parameters u is still the error term(or disturbance) Still need to make a zero conditional mean assumption, so now assume that E(lx,x2…,x)=0 Still minimizing the sum of squared residuals. so have k+l first order conditions Economics 20- Prof anderson
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Ch.8 Nonspherical Disturbance This chapter will assume that the full ideal conditions hold except that the covari- ance matrix of the disturbance, i.e. E(EE)=02Q2, where Q is not the identity matrix. In particular, Q may be nondiagonal and / or have unequal diagonal ele- ments Two cases we shall consider in details are heteroscedasticity and auto-
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Ch. 7 Violations of the ideal conditions 1 ST pecification 1.1 Selection of variables Consider a initial model. which we assume that Y=x1/1+E, It is not unusual to begin with some formulation and then contemplate adding more variable(regressors) to the model
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Ch. 6 The Linear model under ideal conditions The(multiple) linear model is used to study the relationship between a dependent variable(Y) and several independent variables(X1, X2, ,Xk). That is ∫(X1,X2,…,Xk)+ E assume linear function 1X1+B2X2+…+6kXk+E xB+ where Y is the dependent or explained
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Ch. 5 Hypothesis Testing The current framework of hypothesis testing is largely due to the work of Neyman and Pearson in the late 1920s, early 30s, complementing Fisher's work on estimation. As in estimation, we begin by postulating a statistical model but instead of seeking an estimator of 6 in e we consider the question whether
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Ch. 3 Estimation 1 The Nature of statistical Inference It is argued that it is important to develop a mathematical model purporting to provide a generalized description of the data generating process. A prob bility model in the form of the parametric family of the density functions p=f(:0),0E e and its various ramifications formulated in last chapter
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Ch. 24 Johansen's mle for Cointegration We have so far considered only single-equation estimation and testing for cointe- gration. While the estimation of single equation is convenient and often consis- tent, for some purpose only estimation of a system provides sufficient information This is true, for example, when we consider the estimation of multiple cointe- grating vectors, and inference about the number of such vectors. This chapter examines methods of finding the cointegrating rank and derive the asymptotic
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第一章 回归分析 第二章 双变量回归分析 第三章 多变量回归分析
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第十章时间序列分析 我们对经济量进行分析的最终目的,是为了预测某些经济变量的未来 值。进行预测的方法有两种。一种是根据一定的经济理论,建立各种相互 影响的经济变量之间的关系模型,根据观测到的经济数据估计出模型参数, 利用模型来预测有关变量的未来值。这种方法的优点在于精确地考虑到了 各经济变量之间的相互影响,有理论依据,但是由于抽样信息不完备,经 济模型和经济计量模型不可能真正准确地反映了经济现实,因而得到的结 果不可能是相当准确
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