一、多元线性回归模型 二、多元线性回归模型的参数估计 三、OLS估计量的统计性质 四、参数估计量的方差-协方差矩阵和随机误差项σ2方差的估计 五、样本容量问题 六、多元线性回归模型实例

Time series vs Cross sectional e Time series data has a temporal ordering unlike cross-section data Will need to alter some of our assumptions to take into account that we no longer have a random sample of individuals Instead. we have one realization of a stochastic(i.e. random) process Economics 20- Prof anderson

Testing for AR(IS eria Correlation Want to be able to test for whether the errors are serially correlated or not Want to test the null thatp=0 in u,=pu, 1 +et=2.. where u is the model error

Fixed Effects estimation When there is an observed fixed effect. an alternative to first differences is fixed effects estimation Consider the average over time of y Bx1+…+Bxik+a1+l The average of a, will be ai so if you subtract the mean. a will be differenced out just as when doing first differences Economics 20- Prof anderson

Why Use Instrumental Variables? e Instrumental Variables(IV)estimation is used when your model has endogenous xs That is, whenever Cov(x,l)≠0 Thus. i can be used to address the problem of omitted variable bias 2 Additionally iv can be used to solve the classic errors-in-variables problem Economics 20- Prof anderson

Simultaneity Simultaneity is a specific type of endogeneity problem in which the explanatory variable is jointly determined with the dependent variable 2 As with other types of endogeneity, IV estimation can solve the problem o Some special issues to consider with simultaneous equations modelS(SEM) Economics 20- Prof anderson

Testing for Unit roots Consider an AR(1): y=a+p +e,t Let Ho: p=1, (assume there is a unit root) Define 0=p-1 and subtract y, from both sides to obtain Ay,=a+ B+e, Unfortunately, a simple t-test is inappropriate, since this is an I(1) process ADickey-Fuller Test uses the t-statistic, but different critical values Economics 20- Prof anderson

Choosing a Topic Start with a general area or set of questions Make sure you are interested in the topic Use on-line services such as EconLit to investigate past work on this topic Narrow down your topic to a specific question or issue to be investigated Work through the theoretical issue Economics 20-Prof. Anderson

Binary dependent variables Recall the linear probability model, which can be written as P(=1x)=Bo+xB a drawback to the linear probability model is that predicted values are not constrained to be between 0 and An alternative is to model the proba、,s a function, G(Bo+xB), where 0