 Modeling strategies of SEM（模型的用途）  Model confirmation：验证（confirmatory）先设模型的恰当性  Model generation：设起始模型，与观察数据比较之后，进行必要的修正，反复估计而得到最佳拟合的模型  Model competation：利用不同模型的比较以决定何者最能反应真实数据 1、模型设定（model specification） 2、模型识别（model identification） 3、模型估计（model estimation） 4、模型评价（model evaluation） 5、模型修正（ model modification）

The book is divided into five sections: 1 The Business Model Canvas, a tool for describing, analyzing, and designing business models, 2 Business Model Patterns, based on concepts from leading business thinkers, 3 Techniques to help you design business models, 4 Re-interpreting strategy through the business model lens, and 5 A generic process to help you design innovative business models, tying together all the concepts, techniques, and tools in Business Model Generation. The last section offers an outlook on five business model topics for future exploration. Finally, the afterword provides a peek into “the making of” Business Model Generation

 Introduction  Mathematical model  Generator model  Load model  Prime mover model  Governor model  Tie-line model  Automatic Generation Control (AGC:自动发电控制)

第一章 绪论 ◼ 软件与软件危机 ◼ 软件工程学 ◼ 传统软件工程和面向对象软件工程 ◼ 软件工程的应用 第二章 软件开发模型 ◼ 传统开发模型 ◼ 瀑布模型（waterfall model） ◼ 快速原型模型（rapid prototype model） ◼ 演化开发模型 ◼ 增量模型（incremental model） ◼ 螺旋模型（spiral model） ◼ 面向对象开发模型 ◼ 构件集成模型（component integration model） ◼ 形式化开发模型 ◼ 转换模型（transformational model） ◼ 净室模型（cleanroommodel） 第三章 软件需求分析 ◼ 需求分析的任务与步骤 ◼ 需求获取的常用方法 ◼ 分析建模 ◼ 软件需求说明 ◼ 结构化分析方法 ◼ 面向对象分析方法 第四章 软件设计概述 ◼ 软件设计的任务 ◼ 软件设计的基本概念 ◼ 模块化设计 ◼ 设计需要处理的问题 ◼ 设计文档及其复审 第五章 传统的设计方法 ◼ 结构化设计模型 ◼ 结构化设计方法 ◼ 过程设计 ◼ Jackson方法

Model Uncertain Prior analysis assumed a perfect model. What if the model is in correct= actual system dynamics GA(s)are in one of the sets Multiplicative model G,(s=GN(s(1+E(s)) Additive model Gp(S)=GN(S)+E(s) where

Our task How to estimate and test discount factor model. Ep,=E(m (data 1, parameter)) 1. Bring an asset pricing model to data to estimate free parameters. For example, parameter,yinm=B(c+1/c)-y Or the b in m=b f 2. Evaluate the model, is it a good model or not? Is another model better?

1. Input-output economics, the foundation of CGE & GSC (a) the input-output table (b) national accounts (c) the one-country input-output model (d) the Leontief paradox (e) effective rates of protection (e) the multi-regional or multi-national I-O model - starting point for CSC analysis 2. CGE modelling (a) Johansen’s model of Norway (b) Johansen’s solution matrix versus Leontief’s inverse (c) trade in a CGE model, Armington to Melitz 3. Applying existing CGE models to supply chain issues (a) Walmsley & Minor on reversing NAFTA (b) Dixon, Rimmer and Waschik on Buy-America(n) 4. Towards a CGE model with supply chain features: designs, components, assembly and sales 5. Concluding remarks

The Open Economy in the SR The Mundell-Fleming Model Model under floating ex-rate Model under fixed ex-rate Interest-rate- differentials Debate over floating v.s. fixed ex-rate Mundell-Fleming model with changing price level Model in large open economy

Introduction The objective of this chapter is to put the previously discussed two models --the models of product market and money market --together and discuss how output and interest rate is determined The model presented in this chapter is often called the IS-LM model (IS: the product market model; LM the money market model)

The objective of this chapter is to put the previously discussed two models -- the models of product market and money market --together and discuss how output and interest rate is determined The model presented in this chapter is often called the IS-LM model (IS: the product market model; LM the money market model)