Global Economic Briefing Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research Inc June22.2016 Dr Edward yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana yardeni com Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blogyardeni.com thinking outside the box
Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc. June 22, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
Table of contents Total Assets of Major Central Banks Fed Balance sheet Fed Assets Fed Bond purchases Federal Reserve Repo Balances ECB Balance Sheet Bank of Japan PBOC Balance Sheet 23456789 US Treasuries agencies held by central banks June 22, 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Table Of Contents June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc. Total Assets of Major Central Banks 1 Fed Balance Sheet 2 Fed Assets 3 Fed Bond Purchases 4 Federal Reserve Repo Balances 5 ECB Balance Sheet 6 Bank of Japan 7 PBOC Balance Sheet 8 US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks 9
Total Assets of Major Central Banks Figure 1 TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS (all in trillions of US dollars) 543 Total 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 320 T15T20162017 5.0 FED Total (4.4) Total (3.5) 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 BOJ PBOC 3.6 3.4 Total (3.9) Total (5.1) 208642086420 3 27 Includes US, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC Source: Haver Analytics Page 1 /June 22. 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard
Figure 1. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 May TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS (all in trillions of US dollars) Total Assets* (16.9) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 May Total Excluding PBOC (11.8) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 May FED Total (4.4) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 May ECB Total (3.5) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 BOJ May Total (3.9) * Includes US, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC. Source: Haver Analytics. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 May PBOC Total (5.1) yardeni.com Total Assets of Major Central Banks Page 1 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
Fed Balance sheet Figure 2. FED’ S ASSETS FED'S LIABILITIES 4.0(trillion dollars) (trillion dollars) US Treasuries Agency Debt Liquidity Facilities 05074 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 320 T15T20162017 53222 5296 with Fed Agency Debt MBs Deposits at Fed) 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 20081200912010l20112012120l312014120151201612017 144 Central Bank Liquidity Swaps Other Loans 104 100 Federal Reserve Notes Source federal r figure for weeks ending Wednesdays Page 2/June 22. 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard
Figure 2. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 FED’S ASSETS* 6/15 (trillion dollars) US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS Liquidity Facilities 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 6/15 FED’S LIABILITIES* (trillion dollars) Total 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .0 .3 .6 .9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 6/15 Agency Debt + MBS US Treasury Securities 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .0 .3 .6 .9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 6/15 Reserve Balances with Fed (Depository Institutions’ Deposits at Fed) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 6/15 Central Bank Liquidity Swaps Other Loans *Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays. Source: Federal Reserve Board. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .76 .80 .84 .88 .92 .96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.28 1.32 1.36 1.40 1.44 6/15 Federal Reserve Notes yardeni.com Fed Balance Sheet Page 2 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
Fed assets Figure 3 4.8 FED'S ASSETS QE2 QE3 QE4 6/1544 (trillion dollars) 4.0 2.8 Total Assets US Treasuries cy Debt varden. com 2008 2009 20117 2012 2015 lys $1. 24tn in mortgage securities. QE2(announced 11/3/10)= Fed buys $600bn in Treasu bn/month in mortgage securities(to infinity and yond). QE4(announced 12/12/12)=Fed buys $45bn/month Source: Federal reserve board Figure 4. FED'S 2.4 ASSETS QE3 & QE4 r(trillion dollars) 2.0 US Treasury Securities 18 18 Agency Debt 16 2014 daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday nounced 1 1/25/08)=Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10)=Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries. QE3(announced 9/13/12)=Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities(to infinity and beyond). QE4(announced 12/12/12)= Fed buys $45bn/month in Trea ource: Federal Reserve board Page 3/ June 22, 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard Inc
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .4 .8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 .4 .8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 QE1 QE2 QE3 & QE4 6/15 FED’S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) Total Assets US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS Note: QE1 (announced 11/25/08) = Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10) = Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (announced 9/13/12) = Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 (announced 12/12/12) = Fed buys $45bn/month in Treasuries. * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Source: Federal Reserve Board. yardeni.com Figure 3. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 QE1 QE2 QE3 & QE4 6/15 FED’S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) Agency Debt + MBS US Treasury Securities Note: QE1 (announced 11/25/08) = Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10) = Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (announced 9/13/12) = Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 (announced 12/12/12) = Fed buys $45bn/month in Treasuries. * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Source: Federal Reserve Board. yardeni.com Figure 4. Fed Assets Page 3 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
Fed Bond purchases Figure 5 FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY US AGENCY bondS +MBS ( monthly change, billion dollars 011 2012 15 2016 FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY BONDS 2012 2014 FED NET PURCHASES OF US AGENCY BONDS + MBS 2011 Source: Federal Reserve board Page 4/June 22, 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard
Figure 5. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 May FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY & US AGENCY BONDS + MBS (monthly change, billion dollars) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -50 0 50 100 150 -50 0 50 100 150 May FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY BONDS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -50 0 50 100 150 200 -50 0 50 100 150 200 May FED NET PURCHASES OF US AGENCY BONDS + MBS Source: Federal Reserve Board. yardeni.com Fed Bond Purchases Page 4 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
Federal Reserve Repo balances Figure 6. FEDERAL RESERVE REPO BALANCES (monthly change, thousands, sa 2008 2009 2011 Source: Federal Reserve Page 5/June 22, 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800 May FEDERAL RESERVE REPO BALANCES (monthly change, thousands, sa) Source: Federal Reserve. yardeni.com Figure 6. Federal Reserve Repo Balances Page 5 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
ECB Balance sheet Figure 7. 3200 TOTAL ASSETS SELECTED LIABILITIES 2800(billion euros) 3000 (billion euros) 1200 Deposit Facility Euro Area Credi 1000 2600 6/17 Institutions 2200 000 2008120o012010120112012l203120141201s12016 20081200gl2010l2011l2012l20131201412051201612017 6/17 ding to Euro Area Euro Area 1150 dit Institutions in euro 000 350 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 200812009120102011201212013120141201512016120170 Residents of Euro Ar Bank notes 1000 1000 500 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 20081200120101201120121201312014120151201612017/600 Reserves Gold Miscellaneous 00 Liabilities 6/17 Residents in Foreign Currency 400 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 2008120091201012011120121201312014120151201612017 Total liabilities minus sum of lending to euro area credit institutions in euro liabilities to other euro area residents in euro, and bank notes in circulation Source: European Central Bank Page 6/June 22, 2016/Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard Inc
Figure 7. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 TOTAL ASSETS 6/17 (billion euros) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 6/17 SELECTED LIABILITIES (billion euros) Euro Area Credit Institutions in Euro Deposit Facility 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 6/17 Lending to Euro Area Credit Institutions in Euro 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 6/17 Liabilities to Other Euro Area Residents in Euro 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 500 1000 1500 2000 6/17 Securities of Euro Area Residents in Euro General Govt Debt Denominated in Euro 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 600 800 1000 1200 6/17 Bank Notes in Circulation 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 200 400 600 800 6/17 Claims on Euro Area Residents in Foreign Currency Foreign Reserves Including Gold Source: European Central Bank. * Total liabilities minus sum of lending to euro area credit institutions in euro, liabilities to other euro area residents in euro, and bank notes in circulation. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 6/17 Miscellaneous Liabilities* yardeni.com ECB Balance Sheet Page 6 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
Bank of Japan Figure 8. JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES AT BOJ (trillion yen, reserve adjusted 0 LT,,,T,T,。0 Z- Zero Interest Rate Policy. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy Source: Bank of Japar JAPAN: INTEREST RATES (percent) Government Bank of Japan Overnight Rate g21931g41951961g71gg1gg100 I o2 I 0304los10610710g10g1olnl1211311411s116117118 ote: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy Source: Bank of Japan. Page 7 /June 22, 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research www.yard
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 Z May Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES AT BOJ (trillion yen, reserve adjusted) yardeni.com Source: Bank of Japan. Figure 8. 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 6/24 JAPAN: INTEREST RATES (percent) 10-Year Government Bond Yield Bank of Japan Overnight Rate Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. yardeni.com Figure 9. Bank of Japan Page 7 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
PBOC Balance sheet 5.PBOC ASSETS 4.7(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Total Assets(5.1) Foreign Exchange Assets(3.6) Nongold International Reserves by China(IMF data)(3.2) varden. com 2002120032004120052006·20071200812009120102011120121201320141201520162017 Source: Peoples Bank of China and IMF PBOC ASSETS Foreign Exchange tal PBOC Assets 200212003120041201200612007120081200g12010l2011120121201312014120151201612017 Page 8/June 22, 2016/ Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni research
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .2 .7 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.2 .2 .7 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.2 May PBOC ASSETS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Total Assets (5.1) Foreign Exchange Assets (3.6) Nongold International Reserves Held by China (IMF data) (3.2) Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF. yardeni.com Figure 10. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 May PBOC ASSETS (percent) Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF. yardeni.com Figure 11. PBOC Balance Sheet Page 8 / June 22, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc
