武漢理工大學應急（）護座我共同關心的天然炙害题陳泰然一臺大護座／大氣科學系特聘教授國立臺湾大学時間：2014年4月16日（星期三）上午地點：武漢理工大學湖量ONational Taiwan University
我們共同關心的天然災害議題 陳 泰 然 臺大講座 / 大氣科學系特聘教授 國立臺灣大學 時間：2014年 4月 16日（星期三）上午 地點：武漢理工大學 武漢理工大學應急（變）講座 1
9一丶極端氣象事件二丶天氣预報能力與限制三丶、天然害測预警風二豪（暴）雨三土石流四測预警體系
一、極端氣象事件 二、天氣預報能力與限制 （一）颱風 （二）豪（暴）雨 （三）土石流 （四）監測預警體系 三、天然災害監測預警 2
3四丶氣候（)氣候經题的發展（二）全球氣候系統動（三）氣候可能造成的影經（四）氣候燮之回廳策略丶法律制定及组織設置
四、氣候變遷 3 （一）氣候變遷議題的發展 （二）全球氣候系統變動 （三）氣候變遷可能造成的影響 （四）氣候變遷之回應策略、法律制定 及組織設置
4一丶極端氣象事件Increase in Extreme Events “Average" Year and Trends in the U.S.650Deaths26.000Severe6Atlantic Basin1,300Tornadoes5,000FloodsS15BinLossesThunderstormsHurricanesUSNatural CatastropheUpdateIncreasingnumber ofextremeMunichRENaturalCatastrophesintheUSA1980-2012NumberofeventsweathereventsatincreasingNumbercosttothenation2012Total:300184eventsAccurateforecastsforextreme20eventshaveextendedto4-820041days19Needto taketheseforecaststo121the next levelfor effective3decision support1980196219841990990200020022004200620082010 201219861819921941996chvsisaleventogical svantsClimniFlooddrought forest ine)cancerupbonovermert)極端事件增加，害大°0 2Dr3 u: Rt
Forecast day Increase in Extreme Events “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S. 6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 650 Deaths $15B in Losses • Increasing number of extreme weather events at increasing cost to the nation. • Accurate forecasts for extreme events have extended to 4-8 days • Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support 極端事件增加，災害擴大。 一、極端氣象事件 4
5Improved ForecastingForecast skills for extreme events extended out to days4-8 forFloods> Severe weatherHeat/coldwaves> SnowstormsHurricanes> Fire weather極端事件预報能力提昇，预報期限增長
Improved Forecasting Forecast skills for extreme events extended out to days 4-8 for ➢ Severe weather ➢ Fire weather ➢ Snowstorms Floods Heat/cold waves Hurricanes 極端事件預報能力提昇，預報期限增長 5
6龍風興水龍卷
龍捲風與水龍捲 6
1987年SaragosaTexas龍卷風筱
1987年 Saragosa Texas 龍捲風過後 7
88HowFarWe'veComeTornadoWarning Statistics 1987-201116.014.00ES12.0Lead Time (Minutes)IL7510.08.05006.0Probabily of DetectionFalseAlamRatio4.0LeadTime(minutes)2252.0e0:02.020201120062001199619911986Years龍警報不断改進
8 龍捲風警報不斷改進 8
9冰電
冰雹 9
Extreme Events.Increasing Vulnerabilities: Populations increasing along coastlines.WorldPopulation:1950-205010exposing risks to intense storms and coastal99Bilioninundation8Bilion7Billion: Increasing vulnerability to severe weather,6Billion5BillonBliorfloods, fire weatherR-lian. Floods and severe weather highlight theDSEo.Simportance of quantitative precipitation forecasts-Yearomrce:U.SCessBameasne2CoetENTER世界人口增加脆弱度升高1010
10 • Populations increasing along coastlines, exposing risks to intense storms and coastal inundation • Increasing vulnerability to severe weather, floods, fire weather • Floods and severe weather highlight the importance of quantitative precipitation forecasts Extreme Events, Increasing Vulnerabilities 脆弱度升高 世界人口增加 10