aviation THE ENVIRONMENT lan a waitz Professor and Deputy Head Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology @2003 Waitz
AVIATION & THE ENVIRONMENT Ian A. Waitz Professor and Deputy Head Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology © 2003 Waitz 1
LECTURE OUTLINE Overview of environmental effects of aircraft · Aircraft noise Impacts and regulatory issues Technology trends Aircraft pollutant emissions Impacts and regulatory issues Technology and emissions trends Summary and references @2003 Waitz 2
LECTURE OUTLINE • Overview of environmental effects of aircraft • Aircraft noise – Impacts and regulatory issues – Technology trends • Aircraft pollutant emissions – Impacts and regulatory issues – Technology and emissions trends • Summary and references © 2003 Waitz 2
AIRPORT Noise RANKING OF ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Water Qualityitry Current and Future Air Quality Compatibility with Land-use limitations None Applicable Wetlands Most serious problem currently Most serious problem in future Source: GAOs survey of the nations 50 busiest commercial service airports @2003 Waitz (GAO,2000)3
Noise None applicable Compatibility with nearby land uses Air quality Most serious problem currently Most serious problem in the future Wetlands AIRPORT 29 Noise 22 RANKING OF ENVIRONMENTAL 12 Water quality ISSUES Water Quality 6 6 Current and Future Air Quality 16 Compatibility with 2 Land-use limitations 4 1 None Applicable 0 0 Wetlands 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Number of airports Most serious problem currently Most serious problem in future Source: GAO’s survey of the nation’s 50 busiest commercial service airports. © 2003 Waitz (GAO, 2000) 3
CHARACTERISTICS OF NOISE AND EMISSIONS ISSUES · noise oca Persistence= minutes Well-established metrics Impacts: annoyance, sleep disturbance, domestic animals endangered species? health impacts? · Emissions Local, regional, global Effluents: CO,Ho. no. co, vocs, soot, others Persistence =1 day -1000 years Drastic change in public/scientific perception and regulatory frameworks Impacts: human health, ecosystem health @2003 Waitz
CHARACTERISTICS OF NOISE AND EMISSIONS ISSUES • Noise – Local – Persistence = minutes – Well-established metrics – Impacts: annoyance, sleep disturbance, domestic animals?, endangered species?, health impacts? • Emissions – Local, regional, global – Effluents: CO2, H2O, NOx, CO, VOC’s, soot, others – Persistence = 1 day -1000 years – Drastic change in public/scientific perception and regulatory frameworks – Impacts: human health, ecosystem health © 2003 Waitz 4
AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ·“ EXTERNALITIES” a large fraction of current aviation health and welfare impacts are real costs to society but are not accounted for by the providers or users of the service The government's objectives for aviation are that. the polluter should pay and aviation, like other industries, should meet its external costs, including environmental costs (From UK Department of Transport, Aviation and the Environment, Using Economic Instruments, March 2003) @2003 Waitz
AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS • “EXTERNALITIES” – A large fraction of current aviation health and welfare impacts are real costs to society but are not accounted for by the providers or users of the service “The government’s objectives for aviation are that…the polluter should pay and aviation, like other industries, should meet its external costs, including environmental costs.” (From UK Department of Transport, Aviation and the Environment, Using Economic Instruments, March 2003) © 2003 Waitz 5
EXTERNAL COSTS OF AVIATION VALUATION SOCIAL INSTITUTIONAL BASIS(industry affected public (regulatory policy) of Total S Impact Area Totals S/ Total$$ capita ddressed by (objective) requlation Noise $26B 2100 $29B 6000 11% (quiet environs) Air Quality $11B $140 25B 30 22% (safe air) Climate Change-$100B $345 $00B $0 (stable climate) OTAL 37 54B % Regulatory framework currently accommodates -5% potential internalization of external costs Noise cost per capita greater than emissions aligns with public opinion and institutional attention Most vociferous opposition to noise, but air quality becoming >>PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ONLY<< @2003 Waitz more of an issue(GA0 2000) ukachko. 2003
EXTERNAL COSTS OF AVIATION VALUATION SOCIAL INSTITUTIONAL BASIS (industry + affected public) (regulatory policy) Impact Area (objective) Total $ $ / capita Total $ $ / capita % of Total $ addressed by regulation Noise $ 26B $ 2100 $ 2.9B $ 6000 11% (quiet environs) Air Quality $ 11B $ 140 $ 2.5B $ 30 22% (safe air) Climate Change ~$100B $ 345 $ 0.0B $ 0 0% (stable climate) TOTAL ~$137B $ 5.4B 5% • Regulatory framework currently accommodates ~ 5% potential internalization of external costs • Noise cost per capita greater than emissions aligns with public opinion and institutional attention – Most vociferous opposition to noise, but air quality becoming more of an issue (GAO 2000) >>PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ONLY<< Lukachko, 2003 © 2003 Waitz 6
GROWTH IN MOBILITY PROVIDED BY U.S AVIATION INDUSTRY (DOT Form 41 data) Fastest Growing Mode of Transportation(4-6%/yr) Revenue Passenger Miles Performed by All Airlines Operating Aircraft with >60 Seats 8E+11 7E+11 u6E+11 足 5E+11 势4E+11 3E+11 2E+11 1E+11 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 @2003 Waitz 7
GROWTH IN MOBILITY PROVIDED BY U.S. AVIATION INDUSTRY (DOT Form 41 data) Fastest Growing Mode of Transportation (4-6%/yr) Revenue Passenger Miles Performed by All Airlines Operating Aircraft with >60 Seats 8E+11 7E+11 6E+11 5E+11 4E+11 3E+11 2E+11 1E+11 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year © 2003 Waitz 7
AIR TRAVEL PROJECTED TO BE FASTEST GROWING MODE OF TRANSPORTATIoN (4-6%yr) DRIVEN BY POPULATION AND GDP GROWTH AND AVAILABLE DAILY TRAVEL TIME automobiles Buses Railways □ Aircraft 1960 1990 2020 55×1012RPK23×1012RPK 54×1012RPK 105×1012RPK @2003 Waitz Source: Schafer et al. (1998), GDPlcap growth rates from IPCC IS92a Scenario
AIR TRAVEL PROJECTED TO BE FASTEST GROWING MODE OF TRANSPORTATION (4-6%/yr) - DRIVEN BY POPULATION AND GDP GROWTH, AND AVAILABLE DAILY TRAVEL TIME - Automobiles Buses Railways Aircraft 1960 1990 2020 2050 5.5 ×1012 RPK 23 ×1012 RPK 54 ×1012 RPK 105 ×1012 RPK Source: Schafer et al. (1998), GDP/cap growth rates from IPCC IS92a Scenario © 2003 Waitz 8
MOBILITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT Environmental issues are likely to impose the fundamental limitation on air transportation growth in the 21st century U.S. National Science and Technology Counci, 1995 Expansion Projects Delayed due to Expansion Projects Cancelled or Indefinitely Environmental lssues Postponed due to Environmental Issues 28%(9 airports)with 25%(12 airports)with at no impact least 1 project affected projects delayed no impact at at 72%(23 airports) 75%(36 airports Source: GAO (2000)survey of 50 busiest commercial Source: GAo (2000)survey of 50 busiest commercial airports. N33 for this question, 1 airport did not respond airports. N=50 for this question, 2 airports with no projects planned @2003 Waitz
MOBILITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT “ Environmental issues are likely to impose the fundamental limitation on air transportation growth in the 21st century. ” U.S. National Science and Technology Council, 1995 72% 28% 25% 75% Expansion Projects Delayed due to Environmental Issues Source: GAO (2000) survey of 50 busiest commercial airports. N=33 for this question, 1 airport did not respond. 28% (9 airports) with no impact projects delayed at 72% (23 airports) Expansion Projects Cancelled or Indefinitely Postponed due to Environmental Issues 25% (12 airports) with at least 1 project affected no impact at 75% (36 airports) Source: GAO (2000) survey of 50 busiest commercial airports. N=50 for this question, 2 airports with no projects planned. © 2003 Waitz 9
AIRPORTS ARE REACHING CAPACITY LIMIT Figure 2: Anticipated Date for Airports to Reach Capacity Number of airports 11 10 2 Already 1-2 years 3-4 years 5-6 years 7-9 years 10 o Other more Estimated time to reach capacity @2003 Waitz Source: GAOs survey of the nations 50 busiest commercial service airports 10
AIRPORTS ARE REACHING CAPACITY LIMIT Figure 2: Anticipated Date for Airports to Reach Capacity Number of airports 14 13 11 5 2 8 7 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Already 1-2 years 3-4 years 5-6 years 7-9 years 10 or Other at or more above years capacity Estimated time to reach capacity Source: GAO’s survey of the nation’s 50 busiest commercial service airports. © 2003 Waitz 10