提出的我国古代稳定粮价的方法 一“平粜法”对当时社会生活的影响说明科学方法 的价值和作用，引导学生运用自己的专业知识和技能为国家和人民做贡献。其次，通 过介绍时间序列研究方法的发展史是由一系列科学家的逐步贡献形成让学生明确科 学的发展需要科学家经过长期的探索与实践，进而培养学生坚持不懈的专注精神。再 从继范 ,欧洲经济学 家才发现类似的规律为例说明我国古代对相关科学 究的巨大贡献，增强学生的民族自豪感和自信心。 Time series analysis is an important branch of statistics.It mainly studies the proces of the occurrence and development of things with the change of time,looks for the law of the development and change of things.and predicts the future trend.Time series can be found everywhere in daily life.At present,time series analysis method is widely used in many fields,such as economy,finance,astronomy,meteorology,oceanography,physics. chemistry,medicine quality control,ete.It has become a common statistical method in many industries.As a branch of mathematical statistics,time series analysis follows the basic principle of mathematical statistics.but due to the time of the unrepeatable.we can only get the only one observation at a time.This special data structure makes time series analysis very special and leads to a self-contained set of analytical methods for time series data.According to the time series analysis methods,time series analysis is applied to understand and analyze various social and financial phenomena.With the use of relevant software in time series,it is easy to operate and has a strong application.This course mainly introduces the basic theories and methods of time series analysis,including AR model,MA model,ARMA model,unit root test method,stable sequence model identification method. model test optimization and prediction,non-stationary time series model,non-stationary series analysis without seasonal effect,non-stationary series analysis with seasonal effect model,factor decomposition theory,exponential smoothing prediction model,multiple time series analysis theories ARIMAX model.co-integration and error correction model,etc In addition,R is not just a statistical software.It is also a powerful platform for interactive data analysis and exploration.Many fields.such as financial economy and medical data mining,have developed their analysis methods based on R.On this platform time series analysis methods can be easily embedded into the research of other fields and become the basic method of practical analysis of various industries.The most importan point is that because of R's openness and resource sharing.it can pool the wisdom and creativity of R users all over the world and develop at an amazing speed.It has free and broad development prospects that can be expected. 三、课程性质与教学目的 (一)课程性质2 提出的我国古代稳定粮价的方法——“平粜法”对当时社会生活的影响说明科学方法 的价值和作用，引导学生运用自己的专业知识和技能为国家和人民做贡献。其次，通 过介绍时间序列研究方法的发展史是由一系列科学家的逐步贡献形成让学生明确科 学的发展需要科学家经过长期的探索与实践，进而培养学生坚持不懈的专注精神。再 次，从继范蠡之后，欧洲经济学家才发现类似的规律为例说明我国古代对相关科学研 究的巨大贡献，增强学生的民族自豪感和自信心。 Time series analysis is an important branch of statistics。It mainly studies the process of the occurrence and development of things with the change of time, looks for the law of the development and change of things, and predicts the future trend. Time series can be found everywhere in daily life. At present, time series analysis method is widely used in many fields, such as economy, finance, astronomy, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, medicine quality control, etc. It has become a common statistical method in many industries. As a branch of mathematical statistics, time series analysis follows the basic principle of mathematical statistics, but due to the time of the unrepeatable, we can only get the only one observation at a time. This special data structure makes time series analysis very special and leads to a self-contained set of analytical methods for time series data. According to the time series analysis methods, time series analysis is applied to understand and analyze various social and financial phenomena. With the use of relevant software in time series, it is easy to operate and has a strong application. This course mainly introduces the basic theories and methods of time series analysis, including AR model, MA model, ARMA model, unit root test method, stable sequence model identification method, model test optimization and prediction, non-stationary time series model, non-stationary series analysis without seasonal effect, non-stationary series analysis with seasonal effect model, factor decomposition theory, exponential smoothing prediction model, multiple time series analysis theories ,ARIMAX model, co-integration and error correction model, etc. In addition, R is not just a statistical software. It is also a powerful platform for interactive data analysis and exploration. Many fields, such as financial economy and medical data mining, have developed their analysis methods based on R. On this platform, time series analysis methods can be easily embedded into the research of other fields and become the basic method of practical analysis of various industries. The most important point is that because of R's openness and resource sharing, it can pool the wisdom and creativity of R users all over the world and develop at an amazing speed. It has free and broad development prospects that can be expected. 三、课程性质与教学目的 （一）课程性质