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(26]Edward Mansfield,and Jack Snyder,Democratic Transi- [41]Joshua Kurlantzick,Charm Offensive:How China's Soft tions,Institutional Strength,and War",International Or Power is Tramgforming the World,New Haven and London: gaizaion,Vol.56.2002,pp.297337. Yale University Press,2007. (27]Richard Rosecrance,The Ris of the Trading State:Commerce 作者简介：黄琪轩，上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院讲师。（上海，200030) 收稿日期：20100826 1994-2012 China Academic Journal Electronic Publis House.All rights reserved.htp://www.enki.netdstein, War and Gender , New York: Cambridge University Pr ess , 2001. 1132 Graham Alison, / Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis0 , American Political Science Review , Vol. 63, 1969, pp. 689-718. 1142 Richard Betts, Enemies of Intel ligence : Knowle dge and Power in American National Security , New York: Columbia Uni￾versity Press, 2007. 1152 A. J. P. Taylor, War by Time- table: How The First Wor ld War Began , London : Macdonald & Co, 1969. 1162 Jack Levy, / Organizational Routines and the Causes of War 0 , International Studies Quarterly , Vol. 30, 1986, pp. 193-222. 1172 Jerome Slater and Terr y Nardin, / The Concept of a Militar￾y- Industrial Complex0, in Steven Rosen, ed. , Testing th e Theory of the Military-Industr ial Complex . Lexington, Mass. : Lexington Books, 1973. 1182 列宁:5列宁全集6 (第 26 卷)1M2, 人民出版社, 1988 年版, 第 296 页。 1192 列宁:5列宁全集6 (第 24 卷)1M2, 人民出版社, 1960 年版, 第 426 页。 1202 Stephen Walt, / Revolution and War0 , World Politics , Vol. 44, 1992, pp. 321-68. 1212 参见 Michael Doyle, / Liberalism and World Politics0, A￾merican Political Science Review , Vol. 80, 1986, pp. 1151-70, 以及 Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace : Democracy , Interde pendence , and Inter national Org anizations , New Yor k: W. W. Norton, 2001 等。 1222 Clif ton Morgan and Sally Campbell, / Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?0 , Journal of Conf lict Resolution , Vol. 35, 1991, pp. 187-211. 1232 John Owen, / How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace0 , International Security , Vol. 19, 1994, pp. 50-86. 1242 Kenneth Schultz, / Domestic Opposition and Signaling in In￾ternational Crises0 , American Political S cience Review , Vol. 92, 1998, pp. 829-844. 1252 Henr y Farber and Joanne Gowa, / Polities and Peace0 , Inter￾national Security , Vol. 20, 1995, pp. 123-146. 1262 Edwar d Mansfield, and Jack Snyder, / Democratic Transi￾tions, Institutional Strength, and War0, I nternational Or￾ganization , Vol. 56. 2002, pp. 297-337. 1272 Richard Rosecrance, Th e Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern Wor ld , New York: Basic Books, 1985, pp. 23-26. 1282 Richard Rosecrance, / International Security and the Virtual State: States and Firms in World Politics0 , Review of I nter￾national Studies , Vol. 28, 2002, pp. 443-455. 1292 Dale Copeland, / Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations International Security0 , Vol. 20, 1996, pp. 5-41. 13021392如柯希纳的研究强调资本的全球流动有助于世界和 平, 银行家常常能化解迫在眉睫的战争危机。参见 Jona￾than Kirshner, Appeasing Bank ers : Financi al Caution on the Road to War , Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Pr ess, 2007, p. 19. 1312 Jonathan Monten, / The Roots of the Bush Doctrine: Pow￾er, Nationalism, and the Promotion of Democracy0 , I nter￾national Security , Vol. 29, 2005, pp. 112-156. 1322 参见 1美2斯蒂芬# 范# 埃弗拉: 5战争的原因61M2, 何曜 译, 上海人民出版社, 2007 年版, 第 176-177 页。同时也可 参见 Stephen Van Evera , / Off ense, Defense, and the Cau￾ses of War0, I nternational Security , Vol. 22, 1998, pp. 5-43. 1332 [ 美] 罗伯特# 吉尔平:5世界政治中的战争与变革61M2, 宋新宁、杜建平译, 邓正来、乔娅校, 上海人民出版社, 2007 年版。 1352 Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, eds. , Par ity and War : E￾valuations and Extensions of The War Ledger , Ann Ar bor : U￾niversity of Michigan Pr ess, 1996. 1362 Henk Houweling, and Jan Siccama, / Power Transitions as a Cause of War0, Journal of Conjict Resolution , Vol. 32, 1988, p. 101. 1372 关于对各个层次的统计检验, 参见 Scott Bennett and Allan Stam, Th e Beh avioral Origins of War , Ann Ar bor: The Uni￾versity of Michigan Press, 2004. 1382 [ 德] 卡尔# 斯密特:5政治的概念61M2, 刘宗坤等译, 上海 人民出版社, 2003 年版, 第 153 页。 1402 Jonathan Kirshner, / Realist Political Economy: Traditional Themes and Contemporary Challenges 0 , in Routledge Handbook of International Political Economy , edt by Mark Blyth, London and New York: Routledge, 2009, pp. 23-35. 1412 Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Of fensi ve: H ow Chinaps Soft Power is Transf orming the World , New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2007. 作者简介: 黄琪轩, 上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院讲师。( 上海, 200030) 收稿日期: 2010-08-26 # 57 # 5国际论坛6 2011 年第 2 期