Explosion of Commercial Space and the Implications for National Security General(Ret) Thomas S. Moorman, Jr Background Space not mainstream · Desert storn Air Force role Space Service Strategic Vision Budget Outlook National Defense Panel Report An approach Greater reliance on commercial In coming years, most dramatic changes in national spacel program will be commercial space
Explosion of Commercial Space and the Implications for National Security General (Ret) Thomas S. Moorman, Jr. Background • Space not mainstream • Desert Storm • Air Force Role - Space Service - Strategic Vision - Budget - Outlook • National Defense Panel Report An approach - Greater reliance on commercial space In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space program will be commercial space
Evolution of National Space sectors Civil-Primary naSa Military Intelligence Missile gap U2 Model- AF/CIA Cooperation NRO Commercial Communications Satellite Industry Other Industries in 1980s agan Sp Poli Independent Interdependent >Commercial a far biggeractor
Evolution of National Space Sectors • Civil – Primary NASA • Military • Intelligence - Missile Gap - U2 Model – AF/CIA Cooperation - Corona - NRO • Commercial - Communications Satellite Industry - Other Industries in 1980’s - Reagan Space Policy Independent Æ InterdependentÆCommercial a far bigger actor
Explosion of Commercial Space Space dominated by Government now changing Rapid evolution of info technology Progress in international space policy Changes in cost/processes of satellite manufacturing Current picture Infusion of capital $85B today -$121B by 2000 Commercial space growing at 20%, government 2% 1996 commercial revenue exceeds government Volume 1700 launches projected In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space program will be commercial
Explosion of Commercial Space • Space Dominated by Government now changing - Rapid evolution of info technology - Progress in international space policy - Changes in cost/processes of satellite manufacturing • Current Picture - Infusion of capital - • $85B today - $121B by 2000 - Commercial space growing at 20%, government 2% - 1996 commercial revenue exceeds government - Volume - • 1700 launches projected In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space program will be commercial space
Space Sectors- The Functions Military Civil Environ monitor ommunications Navigation/Timing Environ Monitoring Warning/Surveillance Navigation/Timing Space Control Launch pace Exploration Satellite C2 Manned Space emote Sensi Communications IMINT Communications MASINT Launch SIGINT Remote Sensing Satellite C2 Navigation/Timing Intelligence
Communications Environ Monitoring Navigation/Timing Warning/Surveillance Space Control Launch Satellite 2 Space Weapons Communications IMINT MASINT SIGINT Launch Satellite C2 Communications Environ Monitoring Navigation/Timing Launch Space Exploration Manned Space Remote Sensing Communications Launch Remote Sensing Satellite C2 Navigation/Timing Space Sectors - The Functions Military Civil Intelligence Commercial C
Space Sectors- The Players M Civil Air Force BMDO. DARPA DISA NASA Naval Space. DOC (NOAA) Army Space DOT AF Space NRO NIMA DIA Army N Marines r上or Intelligence
Air Force Army, Navy, BMDO, DARPA, DISA US Space, Naval Space, Army Space, AF Space NRO NIMA NSA DIA Army Navy Marines Air Force NASA DOC (NOAA), DOT Space Sectors - The Players Military Civil Intelligence Commercial
Space Sectors Interdependence M Space Control Space Exploration Space Weapons tellite C- Communications Launch Warning/ avigation/Timing Remote Sensing (IMINT) SIGINT ellie ommercial
Manned Space Environmental Monitoring Space Exploration SIGINT Space Space Weapons MASINT Warning/ Surveillance Satellite C2 Communications Launch Navigation/Timing Remote Sensing (IMINT) Space Sectors Interdependence Military Civil Intelligence Commercial Control
Commercial Space Communications Giant in the past Information Revolution Bandwidth is King Market-$50B in new develop rograms Geosynchronous(GEO) .30-40 launches annually Will get heavier Cyberstar, Spaceway, Astrolink, Eurosky Wa Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Medium Earth Orbit(MEO) Large constellations/Huge investments Teledesic, Celestri, WEST, Skybridge Commercial Space communications LEO-Inexpensive World-wide cellular US owned big leo .Iridium Globalstar. Constellation Foreign big leo CO Global(79 National Consortium), Signal(Russia) Euro african US little LEO Orbcomm. Gemmet. FaI Sat and Stars Foreign little leo Elekon(Russia/Germany), GONET(Russia), IRIS (Belgium), LEO One(Mexico) Outlook Well capitalized High risk All launch within 2-3 year
Commercial Space Communications • Giant in the past - Information Revolution - Bandwidth is King • Market - $50B in new development • Programs - Geosynchronous (GEO) •30-40 launches annually • Will get heavier • Cyberstar, Spaceway, Astrolink, Eurosky Way - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) • Large constellations/Huge investments • Teledesic, Celestri, WEST, Skybridge Commercial Space Communications • LEO- Inexpensive World-wide cellular - US owned big LEO •Iridium, Globalstar, Constellation - Foreign big LEO • ICO Global (79 National Consortium), Signal (Russia), - Euro African - US little LEO • Orbcomm, Gemmet, FAI Sat and Starsys - Foreign little LEO • Elekon (Russia/Germany), GONET (Russia), IRIS - (Belgium), LEO One (Mexico) • Outlook - Well capitalized - High risks - All launch within 2-3 years
Commercial Space Communications Implications for National Security Operational Flexibility osmia direct broadcast system Gapfiller Short acquisition cycles New technology infusion · Satellite design Simplified SAT C Stable flexible capital Commercial Space launch Change as dramatic as communications Market 1975-1995-23 launches/year, 75-80% government 1997-2006-45-52 launches/year, commercial exceeds government Space launch modernization Increasing costs, decreasing National Space Launch Transportation Policy(1994) EELV-$2B,MLV(2001),HLV(2004) NASA Reusable Launch Vehicle(RLV) ·X-33
Commercial Space Communications • Implications for National Security - Operational • Capacity • Flexibility • Bosnia & Direct Broadcast System • Gapfiller - Efficiencies • Short acquisition cycles • New technology infusion • Satellite design • Simplified SAT C2 • Stable & flexible capital Commercial Space Launch • Change as dramatic as communications • Market - 1975-1995-23 launches/year, 75-80% government - 1997-2006-45-52 launches/year, commercial exceeds government • Space launch modernization - Increasing costs, decreasing - National Space Launch Transportation Policy (1994) - EELV-$2B, MLV (2001), HLV (2004) - NASA Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) •X-33
om cial space la Implications for National Security More timely launch Costs decreasing Commercialization of launch services Government a customer Reassign expensive military Commercial Space- Remote sensing Past- Sole domain of the government NRO Landsat Policy debate in early 1990s Resolution dissemination Two schools of thought Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992 Permitted commercialization/licensing Established rules of the road Landsat management Sale of technology
Commercial Space Launch • Implications for National Security - More timely launch - Costs decreasing - Commercialization of launch services • Government a customer • Pay for capability on orbit - Reassign expensive military Commercial Space – Remote Sensing • Past – Sole domain of the Government - NRO - Landsat • Policy debate in Early 1990’s - Foreign competition - Resolution & dissemination - Two schools of thought • Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992 - Permitted commercialization/licensing - Established rules of the road - Landsat management - Sale of technology
Commercial Space-Remote Sensing Market $2.65B industry by 2000 Innumerable uses- huge potential Field of Dreams · Programs US-7 licenses. volatile Earthwatch- Early Bird 1, Quick Bird Space Imaging EOSAT Orbimage -Orbview Series France(SPOT Japan (ALOs) Canada(radarsat) China/Brazil (CBers) dia (irs) Brazil (eros)
Commercial Space – Remote Sensing • Market - $2.65B industry by 2000 - Innumerable uses – huge potential - “Field of Dreams” • Programs - US – 7 licenses, volatile • Earthwatch – Early Bird 1, Quick Bird • Space Imaging EOSAT • Orbimage – Orbview Series - International • France (SPOT) • Japan (ALOS) • Canada (RADARSAT) • China/Brazil (CBERS) • India (IRS) • Brazil (EROS)
