Decision Making and Sustainable Development Unit2:环境决策与可持续发展 Risk Growth Cost Decisions Environment Benefit
Decision Making and Sustainable Development Unit 2: 环境决策与可持续发展
Useful Words and Expressions Risk-风险 Probability-可能性(概率上的) Possibility-可能性(一般意义上的) Benefit-效益 Assessment-评价 Exposure-暴露 Pollutant一污染物 Toxin-毒素 Priority-优先 Regulatory-规则的 Monitor-监测(动词)
Useful Words and Expressions • Risk – 风险 • Probability – 可能性 (概率上的 ) • Possibility – 可能性 (一般意义上的 ) • Benefit – 效益 • Assessment – 评价 • Exposure – 暴露 • Pollutant – 污染物 • Toxin – 毒素 • Priority – 优先 • Regulatory – 规则的 • Monitor – 监测 (动词 )
Useful Words and Expressions Threshold-阈值 Perception-感觉、感受 Consumption-消耗、消费 Supp!y-供应、供给 Demand-需求 Emission一发出、发射 Subsidy-补助、补贴(来自政府的) Sustainable-可持续的 Renewable-可更新的 Adaptable-可采用的 nstitutiona|-制度的
Useful Words and Expressions • Threshold – 阈值 • Perception – 感觉、感受 • Consumption – 消耗、消费 • Supply – 供应、供给 • Demand – 需求 • Emission – 发出、发射 • Subsidy – 补助、补贴 (来自政府的 ) • Sustainable – 可持续的 • Renewable – 可更新的 • Adaptable – 可采用的 • Institutional – 制度的
Measuring Risk Two primary factors in most decisions Risk: how likely is it that something will happen? Cost: what is the cost of this course of action? Risk analysis involves defining a mathematical probability relating the likelihood of an event (adverse effect) Probability and Possibility Probability: quantitative -how likely Possibility: qualitative -if or not
Measuring Risk • Two primary factors in most decisions: – Risk: how likely is it that something will happen? – Cost: what is the cost of this course of action? • Risk analysis involves defining a mathematical probability relating the likelihood likelihood of an event (adverse effect). • Probability and Possibility – Probability Probability: quantitative – how likely – Possibility Possibility: qualitative – if or not
Risk Analysis and Decision Making Consequences Decision-making of risk process and Decisions prioritization Decision-Making Process: The assessment, cost, and consequences of risks are all important to the decision-making process
Risk Analysis and Decision Making Decision Decision -Making Process Making Process: The assessment, cost, and consequences of risks are all important to the decision-making process
Risk Assessment Environmental risk assessment uses facts and assumptions to estimate probability of harm to human health or the environment resulting from exposure to pollutants, toxins, or management decisions Estimates typically based on broad assumptions to ensure a lack of complete knowledge does not result in an underestimation of risk
Risk Assessment – Environmental risk assessment Environmental risk assessment uses facts and assumptions to estimate probability of harm to human health or the environment resulting from exposure to pollutants, toxins, or management decisions. Estimates typically based on broad assumptions to ensure a lack of complete knowledge does not result in an underestimation of risk
Risk Assessment Over the past decade, the largest impact has come in practices involving carcinogens Risk assessment is also being used to help set regulating priorities and supporting regulatory action
Risk Assessment – Over the past decade, the largest impact has come in practices involving carcinogens carcinogens. – Risk assessment is also being used to help set regulating priorities and supporting regulatory action
Very high cancer nisk 1in10 Lake trout 1in100 Laie trout LaKU trout 出 什H 1in1000 1in1000 Lake trout Lake trout (>30 Pacific co Chinook sa Lake trout (20 Perch (all si Coho salm Lobster(Quir 田 1in10.000 in10.000 m Lobster(Quin Chinook saln Sound, WA) 田 Pacific cod 1in100.000 1in100.000 Perch (all si Cod/Haddock Chinook salmo 1in1.000 1in1000000 Canned tuna Red meat 1in10000.000 Cod/Haddock Chicken Red meat Cod/Haddock Canned tuna Very low 1 meal/week 1 meal/month Cancer Risk and Fish Consumption: a study by the national wildlife Federation provides estimates for cancer risks associated with the consumption of sport fish
Cancer Risk and F Cancer Risk and Fish Consumption sh Consumption: A study by the national Wildlife Federation provides estimates for cancer risks associated with the consumption of sport fish. 高频度鲑鱼食用导致高致癌率 高频度鲑鱼食用导致高致癌率 致癌率随食用频度降低 致癌率随食用频度降低 致癌率随食用频度降低 致癌率随食用频度降低
Risk Management Risk Management: A decision-making process that includes: Assigning priorities to different risks Determining necessary funding to reduce risks to an acceptable level Deciding where greatest benefit will be realized from limited funds Determining acceptable level of risk Planning, enforcement, and monitoring
Risk Management • Risk Management Risk Management: A decision-making process that includes: – Assigning priorities priorities to different risks. – Determining necessary funding funding to reduce risks to an acceptable level. – Deciding where greatest benefit benefit will be realized from limited funds. – Determining acceptable level acceptable level of risk. – Planning, enforcement, and monitoring
Risk Management Politics of risk management frequently focus on adequacy of supporting scientific evidence Defining the extent of the problem helps determine the rest of the management process Below a certain risk threshold, action may be unnecessary
Risk Management • Politics of risk management frequently focus on adequacy adequacy of supporting scientific evidence. • Defining the extent of the problem helps determine the rest of the management process. – Below a certain risk threshold threshold, action may be unnecessary
