16886-Feb3,2004 16.886-Air Transportation Systems Architecting Course Introduction (Image removed due to copyright considerations February 3, 2004 Prof earll murman
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 16.886 - Air Transportation Systems Architecting Course Introduction February 3, 2004 Prof. Earll Murman (Image removed due to copyright considerations.)
16886-Feb3,2004 Course Information 16.886 Air Transportation Systems Architecting Graduate(Spring )H-Level grad Credit Prereq: 16.885 or permission of instructor Units: 3-2-7 Lecture: tR930-11 AM Lab: Wed 3-5 pm Faculty: Earll Murman, John-Paul Clarke, John hansman Bob liebeck, Al Haggerty, Guest lecturers Accounts will be set up on workstations
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Course Information 16.886 Air Transportation Systems Architecting Graduate (Spring) H-Level Grad Credit Prereq: 16.885 or permission of instructor Units: 3-2-7 Lecture: TR9.30-11 AM Lab: Wed 3-5 pm Faculty:Earll Murman, John-Paul Clarke, John Hansman Bob Liebeck, Al Haggerty, Guest lecturers Accounts will be set up on workstations
16886-Feb3,2004 Agenda Drivers-Commercial and Military Cargo Transport Needs Responses-Conventional and Advanced concepts Formation Flight -A Possible Approach Basic concepts One flight result other considerations · Plan for the semester Questions and responses Turn in Student profile and preferences at end of class
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Agenda • Drivers - Commercial and Military Cargo Transport Needs • Responses - Conventional and Advanced Concepts • Formation Flight - A Possible Approach – Basic concepts – One flight result – Other considerations • Plan for the semester • Questions and responses – Turn in Student Profile and Preferences at end of class
16886-Feb3,2004 Commercial drivers Globalization trends Longer distances between producers and consumers Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa Lean manufacturing Focus on to eliminate waste, e.g. JIT Faster response to market demands Air freight operators looking for new markets Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface Gap in capability-"middle market Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days Air is expensive but takes only 3-6 days Operating economics drive Increased capacity per air freighter Reduced crew and fuel costs
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Drivers • Globalization trends – Longer distances between producers and consumers – Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa • Lean manufacturing – Focus on “flow” to eliminate waste, e.g. JIT – Faster response to market demands • Air freight operators looking for new markets – Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface – Gap in capability- “middle market” • Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days • Air is expensive but takes only 3-6 days • Operating economics drive – Increased capacity per air freighter – Reduced crew and fuel costs
16886-Feb3,2004 Commercial trends Bartowski(FedEx)"Future Concepts for Air Cargo Delivery, AIAA Paper 2003-2629 Freighter fleet expected to double in 20 years 90%of fleet capacity in wide-body aircraft in 20 years leading to 23% grown in payload capacity Growth is in the middle market" between air and surface for world wide freight market Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China Jiang et al MIT ICAt), Market and Infrastructur Air cargo growth through China airports expected to grow at 11.2% per annum for next 20 years Includes both domestic and import/export
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Trends • Bartowski (FedEx) “Future Concepts for Air Cargo Delivery”, AIAA Paper 2003-2629 – Freighter fleet expected to double in 20 years – 90% of fleet capacity in “wide-body” aircraft in 20 years leading to 23% grown in payload capacity – Growth is in the “middle market” between air and surface for world wide freight market. • Jiang, et al (MIT ICAT), “Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China” – Air cargo growth through China airports expected to grow at 11.2% per annum for next 20 years. Includes both domestic and import/export
16886-Feb3,2004 Commercial trends- Contd Allison, et al"Expedited Transport Airlines", Final Report for 16.899 Air Transportation System architecting World air cargo and freight to grow at 6.4-6.5%per year for next 10 years Total worldwide freight shipping expected to go from 132 to 383 Freight- Ton-Kilometers in 20 years Freighter Fleet to grow from 1, 775 to 3, 078, including retirement of 1, 228 old freighters, mostly narrow body ong range freighter segment will be the fastest growing Standard shipments take 4-6 days with only 10-15%time in the air. Most the time is ground transport, handling, waiting Top 10 markets will generate 40% of global airfreight in next 10 years Intra asia, China→ Europe, China→ North america, North America台→ Asia, Europe o> Asia, North America Europe, DomestIc USA Lots of good data in this report from last year's class
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Trends - Cont’d • Allison, et al “Expedited Transport Airlines”, Final Report for 16.899 Air Transportation System Architecting. – World air cargo and freight to grow at 6.4-6.5% per year for next 10 years. – Total worldwide freight shipping expected to go from 132 to 383 FreightTon-Kilometers in 20 years. – Freighter Fleet to grow from 1,775 to 3,078, including retirement of 1,228 old freighters, mostly narrow body. – Long range freighter segment will be the fastest growing – Standard shipments take 4-6 days with only 10-15% time in the air. Most the time is ground transport, handling, waiting. – Top 10 markets will generate 40% of global airfreight in next 10 years: Intra Asia, China ⇒ Europe, China ⇒ North America, North America ⇔ Asia, Europe ⇔ Asia, North America ⇔ Europe, Domestic USA Lots of good data in this report from last year’s class
16886-Feb3,2004 Military Drivers Threats are global Reaction times are shorter Trends are towards Us basing for security, economic and political factors Result is US forces are becoming more expeditionary Rumsfeld's Transformation goals for Army Deploy 1 division anywhere in the world in 5 days Deploy 5 divisions anywhere in the world in 30 days Division is 16, 000 personnel and all their equipment Long range bombers based on continental US require considerable tanker support which is expensive and logistically complicated We need more information on military drivers
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Military Drivers • Threats are global • Reaction times are shorter • Trends are towards US basing for security, economic and political factors • Result is US forces are becoming more expeditionary • Rumsfeld’s Transformation goals for Army – Deploy 1 division anywhere in the world in 5 days – Deploy 5 divisions anywhere in the world in 30 days • Division is 16,000 personnel and all their equipment • Long range bombers based on continental US require considerable tanker support which is expensive and logistically complicated. We need more information on military drivers
16886-Feb3,2004 Summary of Drivers Both commercial and military Need more weight and volume transported over long distances Mostly intercontinental Need "block times"in days rather than weeks Ground transport and handling is important Focus on integrated system, not just aircraft Need affordable costs More expensive than surface but less expensive than current air
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Summary of Drivers • Both commercial and military – Need more weight and volume transported over long distances. – Mostly intercontinental – Need “block times” in days rather than weeks • Ground transport and handling is important • Focus on integrated system, not just aircraft – Need affordable costs • More expensive than surface but less expensive than current air
16886-Feb3,2004 Responses to Drivers age removed due to copyright considerations Existing technology More wide body aircraft Many converted passenger aircraft Larger aircraft - A380 Courtesy of Boeing Corporati Used with permission Advanced technologies Blended Wing Body Image removed due to copyright considerations ing in Ground Effect Other Courtesy of Boeing Corporation Used with permIssion. Formation flight Courtesy of Aero Vehicles, Inc. Used with permission
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Responses to Drivers • Existing technology – More wide body aircraft • Many converted passenger aircraft – Larger aircraft - A380 • Advanced technologies – Blended Wing Body – Wing in Ground Effect – Other – Formation flight Image removed due to copyright considerations. Courtesy of Boeing Corporation. Used with permission. Courtesy of Boeing Corporation. Used with permission. Image removed due to copyright considerations. Courtesy of AeroVehicles, Inc. Used with permission
16.886-Feb3,2004 Blended Wing Body Principles -Low wetted area, span loading, composites, modular Courtesy of Boeing Corporation. Used with permission layout Metrics for FedEx study* Payload/Range Comparison TOGW1,350,000b Payload 525,000 lb Range 5000 nm Volume 51. 000 ft 62 payload and 15% DoC advantage over A380 Limitations -Still a paper A380F BWB 747 DC10 airplane. No showstoppers Barkowski, R, "Future Concepts for Air Cargo Delivery", AIAA Paper 2003-2629. Also see Wakayama, S, Gilmore, R, Brown, D, " Design Trades for a Large Blended-Wing- Body Freighter", AIAA Paper 2003-2503
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Blended Wing Body • Principles - Low wetted area, span loading, composites, modular layout • Metrics for FedEx study* – TOGW 1,350,000 lb – Payload 525,000 lb – Range 5000 nm – Volume 51,000 ft 3 – 62 % payload and 15% DOC advantage over A380 • Limitations - Still a “paper” airplane. No showstoppers. * Barkowski, R, “Future Concepts for Air Cargo Delivery”, AIAA Paper 2003-2629. Also see Wakayama, S, Gil more, R,, Brown, D., “Design Tra des for a Lar ge Bl ended-Wing-Body Freighter”, AIAA Paper 2003-2503 A380F Range Payload (1000 lbs) Payload/Range Comparison BWB B747F DC10 Courtesy of Boeing Corporation. Used with permission