Globalization's Latest Most PressingTrilemma: Re-Balancing the Competing Needsof Community, Democracy and IdentityMaking Senseof Globalization in a Cross-CulturalSettingInternationalConference,PreparedforUniversitiesofSanJuanandMendozaArgentinaMay2014
Globalization’s Latest Most Pressing Trilemma: Re-Balancing the Competing Needs of Community, Democracy and Identity Making Sense of Globalization in a Cross-Cultural Setting International Conference, Prepared for Universities of San Juan and Mendoza , Argentina May 2014
Paradox and UncertaintyFernand Braudel (1980) put his finger on the conditions for radical andincremental change: when societys institutions are trapped by bothtraditionalismandrigidity,'theycannotrespondtothenewpoliticalandstructuralrealitiestakingplaceintheworld'today.FromaBraudelianperspective,aseverestructuralcrisiscreatesroomfornew practicesandnorms.Existing institutions enter into decline unable to regain theirfocusandtransformtheir norms,values,and practices.The WTOis a leadingexampleofBraudelanstructuralknockoutblow.Itcontinuestooperatewitharear viewmirrorofhistorywithnoplantoshiftgears: Whatis a Braudelian regime change? Some examples: in India primaryhealthcareforall andfreegenericdrugs;freetradewithPakistananddismantling militarization relations; a 30% fall in the poverty rate; themobilization of hundreds of thousands micro activists to operate as a thirdfront in Indianpolitical life.Postcrisisglobalgovernancehasputnewoptionsatthetop oftheagendaEven though theinformationage continues to surpriseand disappoint, itchallengesourways ofmapping andtracking itsdiversesocialimpacts: Whatwill the post-recessionlandscapelooklike?-thatis a questionto wrapourheadsaround!
Paradox and Uncertainty • Fernand Braudel (1980) put his finger on the conditions for radical and incremental change: when society’s institutions are trapped by both ‘traditionalism and rigidity,’ they cannot respond to the new political and structural realities taking place in the world today. From a Braudelian perspective, a severe structural crisis creates room for new practices and norms. Existing institutions enter into decline unable to regain their focus and transform their norms, values, and practices. The WTO is a leading example of Braudelan structural knock out blow. It continues to operate with a rear view mirror of history with no plan to shift gears • What is a Braudelian regime change? Some examples: in India primary health care for all and free generic drugs; free trade with Pakistan and dismantling militarization relations; a 30% fall in the poverty rate; the mobilization of hundreds of thousands micro activists to operate as a third front in Indian political life. • Post crisis global governance has put new options at the top of the agenda. Even though the information age continues to surprise and disappoint, it challenges our ways of mapping and tracking its diverse social impacts. • What will the post-recession landscape look like?– that is a question to wrap our heads around!
Globalization: Why so Different? Five transformative developments have changed the globalization narrativeirreversibly.1.Theriseoftherestandthedramaticgrowthoftheglobal south-thelocomotiveoftheglobal economy2. The hollowing out of the middle class in the global North and theemergence ofa middleclass inthe BRICS.Twodestinies3.Therisingtideofglobal inequality world wide wherethe1percent have40percent of the world's wealth. Global finance is more concentrated, dominantandtoobigtoregulate4.Welcometo the world oflabour without organized labour.Union levels havedeclined across industrialized world to the point where the union freeworkplaceisnowstandardinmanyindustries.The nonstandard revolution of the world of work has triggered the decline ofrealwages,inadequate statutoryprotection,theweakening oflabour'sinstitutional voice, intense labour shedding technology and supported byincreasinglycompetitivelabourmarkets.5.Thesoftpowerofideas,socialvaluesandpublicopinionmorethanmatchthehardpower of markets.Inaonebillionplusglobal mediapublic and theinformationrevolution,socialmedia hasdevolved powertooffsidepublicsworldwide.The crisisofmultipartysystem,itsrepresentationandrelevancehas been brought into question by online publics
Globalization: Why so Different? • Five transformative developments have changed the globalization narrative irreversibly. • 1. The rise of the rest and the dramatic growth of the global south – the locomotive of the global economy • 2. The hollowing out of the middle class in the global North and the emergence of a middle class in the BRICS. Two destinies • 3. The rising tide of global inequality world wide where the 1 percent have 40 percent of the world’s wealth. Global finance is more concentrated, dominant and too big to regulate • 4. Welcome to the world of labour without organized labour. Union levels have declined across industrialized world to the point where the union free workplace is now standard in many industries. • The nonstandard revolution of the world of work has triggered the decline of real wages, inadequate statutory protection, the weakening of labour’s institutional voice, intense labour shedding technology and supported by increasingly competitive labour markets. • 5. The soft power of ideas, social values and public opinion more than match the hard power of markets. In a one billion plus global media public and the information revolution, social media has devolved power to offside publics worldwide. The crisis of multiparty system, its representation and relevance has been brought into question by online publics
The Name of the GameNew Rules and Long TermStructural Change - Read myLips It's the Interdependent GlobalEconomy Stupid!!We have to DoBetter
The Name of the Game New Rules and Long Term Structural Change – Read my Lips It’s the Interdependent Global Economy Stupid!!We have to Do Better
The Rise of the Rest the BiggestStructural Change of AllTheBrics*risingshareShare of global GDpatpurchasingpowerparity(96)30BricsRussiaCBrazil.india, chna)25US2015Eu big fourCGoaFaceUkItaby101495051019922000Source:Forecast
The Rise of the Rest the Biggest Structural Change of All
China: Now The Largest Economy InThe WorldRealGDpatpurchasingpowerparity($tnin2Oi4prices)20USChina05101585959020001980ForecastPhoto:AFP/Getty
China: Now The Largest Economy In The World
The Global Division of WealthRS28051chinandiaJaoamGeranyRussiaBrazilFrarnUKlndonesiaalyMexico20100406080orkBank
The Global Division of Wealth
A Middle Income Fragmented World?GDPShareglobalOf2011Binconmemiddie-inconneHih-income86C56countniescotreS50.348.2o-inconme32countries1ardBakSOTCe
A Middle Income Fragmented World?
The Great Information Transformation:A MassiveAmount of Intense Innovation in a Very Short Amount ofTime1990TimBerners-LeeIt'sFreeforeveryoneWorldWideWebNoCopyright1997Page's and Brin's Google Search EngineRevolutionizes TheInformationRevolution199220milliononinternet20121.8billion web subscriber199235 million cell phone users20122.0 billion plus cell phone users1998-SteveJob'sAppleSmartTechnologyConsumerRevolutionMoreThan A Decade Long Revolution from the Ipod, Iphone, Ipad2012andItunesStore2004Mark Zuckerberg et al create prototype Facebook- 4000 initialsubscribers2012Facebook's‘Life without Curtains'exceeds 1billion plus users2003Skype developedfrom Swedish andDanish software2012Skype-Microsoft daily 660 million users2006JackDorsey'sTwitterlaunched140-charactertweet2012Over 500 million users handling over 1.8 billion tweets daily2012YouTube surpasses the 1billion viewer threshold2012Amazonebooksaccountformorethan50%ofbooksales
The Great Information Transformation: A Massive Amount of Intense Innovation in a Very Short Amount of Time 1990 Tim Berners-Lee It’s Free for everyone World Wide Web No Copyright 1997 Page’s and Brin’s Google Search Engine Revolutionizes The Information Revolution • 1992 20 million on internet • 2012 1.8 billion web subscriber • 1992 35 million cell phone users • 2012 2.0 billion plus cell phone users • 1998- Steve Job’s Apple Smart Technology Consumer Revolution More Than A Decade Long Revolution from the Ipod, Iphone, Ipad • 2012 and Itunes Store • 2004 Mark Zuckerberg et al create prototype Facebook- 4000 initial subscribers • 2012 Facebook’s ‘Life without Curtains’ exceeds 1 billion plus users • 2003 Skype developed from Swedish and Danish software • 2012 Skype-Microsoft daily 660 million users • 2006 Jack Dorsey’s Twitter launched 140-character tweet • 2012 Over 500 million users handling over 1.8 billion tweets daily • 2012 YouTube surpasses the 1 billion viewer threshold • 2012 Amazon ebooks account for more than 50% of book sales •
Global Labour - Its Losing Battle To CatchUp. Less And Less Bargaining LeverageTrendsingrowthinaveragewagesandlabourproductivityindeveloped economies(index:1999=100)-(Fig.36)116epuraonpodpuebemeyenur1121081041001999201120012003200520072009200020022004200620082010LabourproductivityIndexRealwageindexSincetheindices referto aweightedaverage,developments inthe three largestdevelopedeconomies(UnitedStates,JapanandGermany)haveaparticularimpactonthisoutcome:Labourproductivityismeasuredasoutputperworker(seenote9)Sources.ILOGlobalWageDatabase,ILOTrendsEconometricModel,March2o12
Global Labour – Its Losing Battle To Catch Up. Less And Less Bargaining Leverage