IntJ Mobile Communication. Vol 2 No.1. 2004 Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century Sameer Kumar College of Business, University of St. Thomas, Mail #f TMH 343, 1000 LaSalle Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55403-2005, USA Fax:6519624710 E-mail: skumar@ stthomas edu Abstract: The paper presents an overview of the mobile communications ndustry. Many aspects of the industry are analysed including the importance of nobile communications, brief history of the industry and mobile applications such as mobile phones, satellites, other handheld devices, wireless computin and m-commerce. The competitive landscape of the mobile phone market is explored based on competing protocols or standards, airtime carriers and handset providers. Trends and forecasts predicted by experts for the industry are also outlined. The key characteristics of the Us mobile market are compared with that of European and Asian markets Keywords: mobile communications: mobile market; mobile applications m-commerce; wireless computing Reference to thi should be made as follows: Kumar, S.(2004) Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century, Int. J. Mobile Communication. Vol Biographical notes: Sameer Kumar is a Professor and Qwest Endowed Chair in Global Communications and Technology Management in the Department of Management, College of Business at the University of St Thomas, Minneapolis, Minnesota. His major areas of interests include optimisation concepts applied to supply chain management, information technology, process innovation capital investment justifications and total quality management effectiveness 1 Introduction In the current information era, mobile communications has enabled us to use laptop personal computers linked to the internet without a'wiredLaN. Simply put, if the internet gave us the ability to access any web address on a desktop, mobiles have given us the access at any time and from anywhere. This capability, derived from modern telecommunication technology, is crucial in conducting international business operations Nevertheless, due to various mobile protocols and networks available in different parts of the world nowadays, for example, analogue, GSM, TDMA or CDMA, it becomes challenging for the airtime providers to expand their services across technological compatibility. The developing Third-Generation(3G) standard is attempting to unify all new-generation mobile devices in a single platform. With the new standard, the mobile gadgets may replace desktop PCs, laptop PCs, credit cards or even wallets in the near future[1. Copyright o 2004 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd
Int. J. Mobile Communication, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2004 67 Copyright © 2004 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century Sameer Kumar College of Business, University of St. Thomas, Mail # TMH 343, 1000 LaSalle Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55403-2005, USA Fax: 651 962 4710 E-mail: skumar@stthomas.edu Abstract: The paper presents an overview of the mobile communications industry. Many aspects of the industry are analysed including the importance of mobile communications, brief history of the industry and mobile applications such as mobile phones, satellites, other handheld devices, wireless computing and m-commerce. The competitive landscape of the mobile phone market is explored based on competing protocols or standards, airtime carriers and handset providers. Trends and forecasts predicted by experts for the industry are also outlined. The key characteristics of the US mobile market are compared with that of European and Asian markets. Keywords: mobile communications; mobile market; mobile applications; m-commerce; wireless computing. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Kumar, S. (2004) ‘Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century’, Int. J. Mobile Communication, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp.67–86. Biographical notes: Sameer Kumar is a Professor and Qwest Endowed Chair in Global Communications and Technology Management in the Department of Management, College of Business at the University of St Thomas, Minneapolis, Minnesota. His major areas of interests include optimisation concepts applied to supply chain management, information technology, process innovation, capital investment justifications and total quality management effectiveness. 1 Introduction In the current information era, mobile communications has enabled us to use laptop personal computers linked to the internet without a ‘wired’ LAN. Simply put, if the internet gave us the ability to access any web address on a desktop, mobiles have given us the access at any time and from anywhere. This capability, derived from modern telecommunication technology, is crucial in conducting international business operations. Nevertheless, due to various mobile protocols and networks available in different parts of the world nowadays, for example, analogue, GSM, TDMA or CDMA, it becomes challenging for the airtime providers to expand their services across technological incompatibility. The developing Third-Generation (3G) standard is attempting to unify all new-generation mobile devices in a single platform. With the new standard, the mobile gadgets may replace desktop PCs, laptop PCs, credit cards or even wallets in the near future! [1]
2 Why go mobile Mobile communication allows people to stay in touch with each other at anytime, almost anywhere and through handheld devices. Unconstrained by wires, mobile-system users can communicate while travelling as fast as about 60 miles (100 km)per hour The mobile phone converts the speaker's voice into radio waves that travel through the air until they reach a receiver at a nearby base station. The base station then sends the call through the telephone network to the intended recipient. The initial impetus for developing and marketing mobile telecommunications systems was to offer consumers mobility. At first, many consumers were not enticed by this capability due to its higher cost compared with fixed lines. However, that difference declining as companies create national or regional networks and alliances that offer pricing plans without roaming fees(charges for calls outside the carriers service area Unlike most countries in the world, in the USA, mobile phone users incur charges, whether the call is incoming or outgoing, thus bearing higher total cost. The full-feature capabilities of digital phones along with declining service charges have reduced the importance of pagers in the wireless industry. The introduction of two-way paging(which enables users to receive, store and play digitised voice messages) met with a disappointing response. The cellular phone is far more versatile in companson Short message service (SMS), based on GSM technology, is one of the fastest-groy services in mobile communications today on a global basis Nearly 32 billion messages per month were transmitted globally via SMS in February 2003[2] 2.1 Mobile vs wireless The terms, mobile and wireless, used in the Telecommunications industry, have their own specific meanings, but they share some common characteristics. For example, mobile vs stationary indicates the ability to access while the device is moving. Similarly, wireles vs. wired means ability to access while the device is not physically connected by a wired line In this paper, the reader will find both terms interchangeable. Even though mobile/wireless technologies can transmit voice and data by means of radio waves, infrared rays, microwaves and electromagnetic waves, this paper mainly discusses merely applications utilising radio waves as the medium due to its popularity 2.2 History 3) Digital wireless and cellular roots go back to the 1940s when commercial mobile telephony began or even as early as in the beginning of 1910s when radio transmission was first tested. Compared with the furious pace of development today, it may seem odd that mobile wireless has not progressed further in the last 100 years. Where are our video watch phones? There were many reasons for this delay, but the most important ones were technology, cautiousness and federal regulation. As the loading coil and vacuum tube made possible the early telephone network, the wireless revolution began only after low cost microprocessors and digital switching
68 S. Kumar 2 Why go mobile? Mobile communication allows people to stay in touch with each other at anytime, almost anywhere and through handheld devices. Unconstrained by wires, mobile-system users can communicate while travelling as fast as about 60 miles (100 km) per hour. The mobile phone converts the speaker’s voice into radio waves that travel through the air until they reach a receiver at a nearby base station. The base station then sends the call through the telephone network to the intended recipient. The initial impetus for developing and marketing mobile telecommunications systems was to offer consumers mobility. At first, many consumers were not enticed by this capability due to its higher cost compared with fixed lines. However, that difference is declining as companies create national or regional networks and alliances that offer pricing plans without roaming fees (charges for calls outside the carrier’s service area). Unlike most countries in the world, in the USA, mobile phone users incur charges, whether the call is incoming or outgoing, thus bearing higher total cost. The full-feature capabilities of digital phones along with declining service charges have reduced the importance of pagers in the wireless industry. The introduction of two-way paging (which enables users to receive, store and play digitised voice messages) met with a disappointing response. The cellular phone is far more versatile in comparison. Short message service (SMS), based on GSM technology, is one of the fastest-growing services in mobile communications today on a global basis. Nearly 32 billion messages per month were transmitted globally via SMS in February 2003 [2]. 2.1 Mobile vs. wireless The terms, mobile and wireless, used in the Telecommunications industry, have their own specific meanings, but they share some common characteristics. For example, mobile vs. stationary indicates the ability to access while the device is moving. Similarly, wireless vs. wired means ability to access while the device is not physically connected by a wired line. In this paper, the reader will find both terms interchangeable. Even though mobile/wireless technologies can transmit voice and data by means of radio waves, infrared rays, microwaves and electromagnetic waves, this paper mainly discusses merely applications utilising radio waves as the medium due to its popularity. 2.2 History [3] Digital wireless and cellular roots go back to the 1940s when commercial mobile telephony began or even as early as in the beginning of 1910s when radio transmission was first tested. Compared with the furious pace of development today, it may seem odd that mobile wireless has not progressed further in the last 100 years. Where are our video watch phones? There were many reasons for this delay, but the most important ones were technology, cautiousness and federal regulation. As the loading coil and vacuum tube made possible the early telephone network, the wireless revolution began only after low cost microprocessors and digital switching
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century became available. The Bell System, producers of the finest landline telephone systems in the world, moved hesitatingly and at times with disinterest toward wireless. Anything AT&T produced had to work reliably with the rest of their network and it had to make economic sense, something not possible for them with the few customers permitted by the limited frequencies available at the time Frequency availability was in turn controlled by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), whose regulations and unresponsiveness constituted the most significant factors hindering radio-telephone development, especially with cellular radio, delaying that technology in the USa by perhaps 10 In Europe and Japan, though, where governments could regulate their state run telephone companies to a lesser extent, mobile wireless came no sooner, and in most cases later than the USA. Japanese manufacturers, although not the first with a working cellular radio, did equip some of the first car mounted mobile telephone services, and their technology was equal to whatever the USA was producing. Their products enabled several first commercial cellular telephone systems, starting in Bahrain, Tokyo, Osaka and Mexico City Table 1 lists the key technology milestones in the mobile communication industry Table 1 Key technology milestones in mobile communication industry Guglielmo Marconi's first wireless telegraphy sent signals across the Atlantic ocean 1910 The first car-telephone by Ericsson The first commercial American radio-telephone service by at& T and Southwestern Bell The first commercial cellular radio system by Bell System 1973 The first handheld cell phone by motorola 78 First generation of analogue cellular systems by bahrain Telephone Company 1982 The rise of GSM in western Europe 990 North American set IS-54B standard up for digital cellular systems using TDMA 3 Mobile applications [4] A number of widely used mobile applications are briefly described in this section. These include: mobile phones, mobile satellites, handheld devices, wireless computing and mobile commerce(m-commerce ). 3.1 Mobile phones This would be counted as the most obvious example of mobile applications based number of users, as many as 1.3 billion worldwide in early 2003. Table 2 shows a statistics snapshot of the mobile industry as of February 2003 according to Cellular Online [2] The mobile utilisation can be classified according to geographic distribution given in Table 3
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century 69 became available. The Bell System, producers of the finest landline telephone systems in the world, moved hesitatingly and at times with disinterest toward wireless. Anything AT&T produced had to work reliably with the rest of their network and it had to make economic sense, something not possible for them with the few customers permitted by the limited frequencies available at the time. Frequency availability was in turn controlled by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), whose regulations and unresponsiveness constituted the most significant factors hindering radio-telephone development, especially with cellular radio, delaying that technology in the USA by perhaps 10 years. In Europe and Japan, though, where governments could regulate their state run telephone companies to a lesser extent, mobile wireless came no sooner, and in most cases later than the USA. Japanese manufacturers, although not the first with a working cellular radio, did equip some of the first car mounted mobile telephone services, and their technology was equal to whatever the USA was producing. Their products enabled several first commercial cellular telephone systems, starting in Bahrain, Tokyo, Osaka and Mexico City. Table 1 lists the key technology milestones in the mobile communication industry. Table 1 Key technology milestones in mobile communication industry Year Technology milestone 1901 Guglielmo Marconi’s first wireless telegraphy sent signals across the Atlantic ocean 1910 The first car-telephone by Ericsson 1946 The first commercial American radio-telephone service by AT&T and Southwestern Bell 1969 The first commercial cellular radio system by Bell System 1973 The first handheld cell phone by Motorola 1978 First generation of analogue cellular systems by Bahrain Telephone Company 1982 The rise of GSM in western Europe 1990 North American set IS-54B standard up for digital cellular systems using TDMA technique 3 Mobile applications [4] A number of widely used mobile applications are briefly described in this section. These include: mobile phones, mobile satellites, handheld devices, wireless computing and mobile commerce (m-commerce). 3.1 Mobile phones This would be counted as the most obvious example of mobile applications based on number of users, as many as 1.3 billion worldwide in early 2003. Table 2 shows a statistics snapshot of the mobile industry as of February 2003 according to Cellular Online [2]. The mobile utilisation can be classified according to geographic distribution given in Table 3
70 S. Kuma Table 2 Mobile statistics snapshot as of February 2003 Total analogue users 34 million Total US mobile users 140 million Total global GSM users 793 million Total global CDMA users Total global CDMA 2000 users Total TDMA users 120 million Total African users 34 million Total 3G users 130 million Total South African users 14 million European prepaid penetration 63% Europeanmobile penetration Global phone shipments 2001 393 million Global phone sales 2Q0 96.7 million #l mobile country China(200 million) #I GSM China(130 million) # l handset vendor 2Q02 Nokia(37.2%) #I network in asia Unicom #I network in Europe T-Mobil (22.3 million) #1 in infrastructure Global monthly SMS/user 36 SMS sent globally 4Q02 95 billion SMS Sent in UK 12/02 1.3 billion SMS sent in Germany 4Q0 SMS sent 2002 GSM countries on air GSM association members 57 Total cost of 3G licenses in euro 110 billion euros Table 3 Mobile use by geographic distribution Geographic region North america Asia Pacific 36 South america Middle east
70 S. Kumar Table 2 Mobile statistics snapshot as of February 2003 Total analogue users 34 million Total US mobile users 140 million Total global GSM users 793 million Total global CDMA users 159 million Total global CDMA 2000 users 30 million Total TDMA users 120 million Total European users 320 million Total African users 34 million Total 3G users 130 million Total South African users 14 million European prepaid penetration 63% European mobile penetration 70.2% Global phone shipments 2001 393 million Global phone sales 2Q02 96.7 million #1 mobile country China (200 million) #1 GSM country China (130 million) #1 SMS country Philippines #1 handset vendor 2Q02 Nokia (37.2%) #1 network in Asia Unicom #1 network in Japan DoCoMo #1 network in Europe T-Mobil (22.3 million) #1 in infrastructure Ericsson Global monthly SMS/user 36 SMS sent globally 4Q02 95 billion SMS sent in UK 12/02 1.3 billion SMS sent in Germany 4Q02 30 billion SMS sent 2002 366 billion GSM countries on air 190 GSM association members 574 Total cost of 3G licenses in Europe 110 billion Euros Table 3 Mobile use by geographic distribution Geographic region Mobile use (%) North America Asia Pacific Africa Europe South America Middle East 21 33 1 36 8 1
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century 3.2 Mobile satellite To complement the cellular phone and wireless computing networks, mobile satellites offer a combination of all-digital transparent voice, data, fax and paging services to and from handheld telephone devices. The systems share an air interface standard named Geostationary Mobile Satellite Standard (GMMS) that is similar to GSM. This means that the Satphone customers will be able to use mobile phones that are compatible with satellite systems in any country where GMsS is offered; in effect, creating roaming capabilities that normal land-based mobile phone users need to pay extra for when the handsets are used in areas outside the network coverage. O,. Nowadays, there are over 1000 satellites orbiting the globe. The number will climb to r 1500 satellites in 2008. They can be positioned in orbits with different heights and shapes(circular or elliptical). Based on the orbital radius, all satellites fall into one of the following three categories: Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Medium Earth Orbit(MEO)and Geostationary Earth Orbit(GEO)as illustrated in Figure I Table 4 summarises the design issues related to different types of satellite constellations 5] Figure 1 Mobile satellites in various earth orbits: LEO, MEO and geo Table 4 Design issues associated with different types of satellite constellations Constellation LEO MEO GEO Altitude 100-1500 miles 6000-12000mles22282 miles Line of sight min 2-4 hours Lower launch costs Moderate launch. Covers 42. 2 of the trip delays Small roundtrip Constant view delays Cons · Very short life: Very large round trip 1-3 months · Greater path loss delays(0.1 s) · Encounters Expensive earth stations radiation belts due to weak signal
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century 71 3.2 Mobile satellite To complement the cellular phone and wireless computing networks, mobile satellites offer a combination of all-digital transparent voice, data, fax and paging services to and from handheld telephone devices. The systems share an air interface standard named Geostationary Mobile Satellite Standard (GMMS) that is similar to GSM. This means that the Satphone customers will be able to use mobile phones that are compatible with satellite systems in any country where GMSS is offered; in effect, creating roaming capabilities that normal land-based mobile phone users need to pay extra for when the handsets are used in areas outside the network coverage. Nowadays, there are over 1000 satellites orbiting the globe. The number will climb to over 1500 satellites in 2008. They can be positioned in orbits with different heights and shapes (circular or elliptical). Based on the orbital radius, all satellites fall into one of the following three categories: Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) as illustrated in Figure 1. Table 4 summarises the design issues related to different types of satellite constellations [5]. Figure 1 Mobile satellites in various earth orbits: LEO, MEO and GEO Table 4 Design issues associated with different types of satellite constellations Constellation LEO MEO GEO Altitude 100–1500 miles 6000–12000 miles 22282 miles Line of sight time 15 min 2–4 hours 24 hours Pros • Lower launch costs • Very short round trip delays • Small path loss • Moderate launch cost • Small roundtrip delays • Covers 42.2% of the earth’s surface • Constant view Cons • Very short life: 1–3 months • Encounters radiation belts • Larger delays • Greater path loss • Very large round trip delays (0.1 s) • Expensive earth stations due to weak signal
72 S Kumar Another method to classify existing satellite systems is by their functions. Voice communications. These universal satellites provide telecommunication services consisting of not only voice, but also data, fax, and paging. The providers nclude iridium. GlobalStar and IcO Satellite radio. There are two major satellite radios providing music on demand aiming to niche markets i.e. coast-to-coast drivers who like to stick to their favourite channels wherever they go. Thus, XM Radio allied with eneral Motors(GM)to install receivers in its cars, while Sirius Radio partnered with Ford Motor and BMW to put Sirius radios in their cars. In the portable electronics segment, Sony and Sharp are also interested in embracing XM Satellite Radio in their Walkmans [6 Broadband networking. In 2005, Teledesic will offer broadband data services through the current 288(rather than 840 as originally designed) satellites orbiting about 500 miles away from earth. The in-operational rival, SkyBrigde-a satellite-based broadband access system- has started offering internet access and videoconference services since 2000 Data messaging Orbcomm provides narrow band two-way digital messaging, data communications and global positioning services Geodesy Navigation Global Positioning System( GPS)is a space-based triangulation system utilising satellites and terrestrial computers to measure positions anywhere on earth. It was first and foremost developed by the US Department of Defense for navigation purposes. Now, the system is more utilised in the public sector for positioning persons or objects that carry transmitters. Gona a GPs in Soviet version, is mainly utilised in military and aviation units in the former Ussr Remote sensing. The remote sensing market has traditionally been the domain of single specialist dedicated satellites for sensing global climates and natural events Comprising of 12 satellites, FUEGO is devoted to wild fire detection and named Forest Fire Earth Watch. RapidEye, a satellite-based geo-information service, provides global climate information, i.e. hail, storm, frost, drought, etc, as well as agricultural produce prediction services. Cosmo-Skymed provides remote sensing services, such as disaster monitoring. urban monitoring law infringement and environmental and agricultural monitoring, only to customers living around the Mediterranean sea able 5 compares and contrasts some important satellite communication systems
72 S. Kumar Another method to classify existing satellite systems is by their functions. • Voice communications. These universal satellites provide telecommunication services consisting of not only voice, but also data, fax, and paging. The providers include Iridium, GlobalStar, and ICO. • Satellite radio. There are two major satellite radios providing music on demand aiming to niche markets, i.e. coast-to-coast drivers who like to stick to their favourite channels wherever they go. Thus, XM Radio allied with General Motors (GM) to install receivers in its cars, while Sirius Radio partnered with Ford Motor and BMW to put Sirius radios in their cars. In the portable electronics segment, Sony and Sharp are also interested in embracing XM Satellite Radio in their Walkmans [6]. • Broadband networking. In 2005, Teledesic will offer broadband data services through the current 288 (rather than 840 as originally designed) satellites orbiting about 500 miles away from earth. The in-operational rival, SkyBrigde – a satellite-based broadband access system – has started offering internet access and videoconference services since 2000. • Data messaging. Orbcomm provides narrow band two-way digital messaging, data communications and global positioning services. http://www.orbcomm.com/about.htm • Geodesy & Navigation. Global Positioning System (GPS) is a space-based triangulation system utilising satellites and terrestrial computers to measure positions anywhere on earth. It was first and foremost developed by the US Department of Defense for navigation purposes. Now, the system is more utilised in the public sector for positioning persons or objects that carry transmitters. Glonass, a GPS in Soviet version, is mainly utilised in military and aviation units in the former USSR. • Remote sensing. The remote sensing market has traditionally been the domain of single specialist dedicated satellites for sensing global climates and natural events. Comprising of 12 satellites, FUEGO is devoted to wild fire detection and named ‘Forest Fire Earth Watch’. RapidEye, a satellite-based geo-information service, provides global climate information, i.e. hail, storm, frost, drought, etc., as well as agricultural produce prediction services. Cosmo-Skymed provides remote sensing services, such as disaster monitoring, urban monitoring, law infringement and environmental and agricultural monitoring, only to customers living around the Mediterranean Sea. Table 5 compares and contrasts some important satellite communication systems
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century Table 5 Comparative information on the important satellite communication systems Lifetime Name Orbit Satellites (years) Services Operational Cost Handset: S3000 Iridium B-LEO V, D, F, P Nov. 1998 GlobalStar B-LEO 4 10 V, D, F, P, GPS 1999 Airtime: $1-1.20/min MEO 10 12 V,D, F, P 2000 Airtime. 3/min Teledesic Brdband Est 2005 NA Terminal: $700 SkyBridge leo Brdband 2000 Airtime: $/month Orbcomm LEO 36 D. F GP 1998 Terminal: S1000 MEO 1995 Receiver:S500-30000 MEO 1995N/A B-LEO: Big LEo-an orbital height over 1000 miles from level: V: Video services D: Data services: F: Fax service: P: Paging service: Brdband: Broadband services GPS: Global Positioning Service. In general, it seems somewhat gloomy for this industry since all terrestrial networks like phone lines and fibre optics as well as land-based wireless infrastructure have spread into almost all urbanised parts of the world leaving only few abandoned places where there is low density of population to utilise the bandwidth. How could the satellite communications survive in business when the total cost of ownership for end-users relatively high? No surprise, they cannot Based on the global market size of telecommunication in 2002. satellite communications revenues attributed to less than 5% of total global telecommunication. The following are some examples of big players in the industry who have failed to pursue the busines Iridium filed for Chapter 1l bankruptcy on Friday, 13 August 1999, but was saved by the new group of owners of Iridium Satellite in December 2000 [7] ICO Global Communications has successfully emerged from Chapter 1l bankruptcy protection following completion of a $1. 2 billion investment led by telecommunications pioneer Craig McCaw and a group of the USA and intemational investors [8 In mid-February 2002, GlobalStar filed a voluntary petition under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code in the US Bankruptcy Court in Delaware, and the company is continuing to work with its creditors and the court to finalise a formal business plan aimed at restructuring the companys finances and allowing the newly organised company to successfully emerge from the Chapter ll process [9]
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century 73 Table 5 Comparative information on the important satellite communication systems Name Orbit Satellites Lifetime (years) Services Operational Cost Iridium B-LEO 66 5 V, D, F, P Nov. 1998 Handset: $3000 Airtime: $1.50/min GlobalStar B-LEO 48 10 V, D, F, P, GPS 1999 Airtime: $1–1.20/min ICO MEO 10 12 V, D, F, P 2000 Handset: $700 Airtime: $0.50–3/min Teledesic Brdband LEO 288 10 Brdband Est. 2005 N/A SkyBridge Brdband LEO 80 N/A Brdband 2000 Terminal: $700 Airtime: $30–40/month Orbcomm LEO 36 4 D, F, GPS 1998 Terminal: $1000 GPS MEO 33 17 GPS 1995 Receiver: $500–30000 Glonass MEO 21 N/A GPS 1995 N/A B-LEO: Big LEO – an orbital height over 1000 miles from level; V: Video services; D: Data services; F: Fax service; P: Paging service; Brdband: Broadband services; GPS: Global Positioning Service. In general, it seems somewhat gloomy for this industry since all terrestrial networks like phone lines and fibre optics as well as land-based wireless infrastructure have spread into almost all urbanised parts of the world leaving only few abandoned places where there is low density of population to utilise the bandwidth. How could the satellite communications survive in business when the total cost of ownership for end-users is relatively high? No surprise, they cannot! Based on the global market size of telecommunication in 2002, satellite communications revenues attributed to less than 5% of total global telecommunication. The following are some examples of big players in the industry who have failed to pursue the business: • Iridium filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Friday, 13 August 1999, but was saved by the new group of owners of Iridium Satellite in December 2000 [7]. • ICO Global Communications has successfully emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection following completion of a $1.2 billion investment led by telecommunications pioneer Craig McCaw and a group of the USA and international investors [8]. • In mid-February 2002, GlobalStar filed a voluntary petition under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code in the US Bankruptcy Court in Delaware, and the company is continuing to work with its creditors and the court to finalise a formal business plan aimed at restructuring the company’s finances and allowing the newly organised company to successfully emerge from the Chapter 11 process [9]
There have been a number of satellite operators like the examples given above who eventually went bankrupt due to lower incomes than expectations. The reasons for this hip can be described by the following: the satellite industry has a long wait between design and profitability, i. e. it can make money only after 10 years in orbit and needs to build the entire network before signing up its first customer manufacturers must lock down technology more than 3 years before launches the industry bets on a market up to 15 years. These are the major negative factors most satellite communication providers are encountering nowadays. Some analysts still see good opportunities for this industry, for example, Futron [10], a technology management consulting firm based in Maryland predicts that the satellite transponder business will grow more than 75% within 10 years from now. This would be a good opportunity for satellite operators to turn to focus on video/audio and broadband markets rather than sticking to only the voice market, which forecasted to stay flat for the coming decade. 3. 2. Handheld devices These devices have come a long way in the past few years, growing from little more than electronic organisers into useful business tools like pocket PCs or PC tablets. The devices can be categorised based on their applications and complexity as follows Personal Digital Assistant(PDA). A term for any small mobile handheld device that provides computing and information storage nd retrieval capabilities for personal or business use, often for keeping schedule calendars and address book information handy ooops The hardware controls are supplied by either Palm OS or Microsoft Pocket PC. The players in the hardware market include Palm (31%), Hewlett Packard (21%), Sony(8%), Toshiba(6%)and Casio(6%). At the end of 2002, the industry shipped 2.6 million units to consumers; a 0.9% increase from the previous year [11 Smart Phone. A wireless phone with text and internet capabilities It can handle wireless phone calls, hold addresses and take voice mail and can also access information on the internet and send and receive e-mail and fax transmissions. It can be viewed as a combination of a mobile phone and a PDa in a single gear PC Tablet. a new generation of slate-style portable computers from Microsoft and its partners promise to combine the flexibility of paper notepads with the best attributes of powerful notebook PCs. Microsoft has added a program called Microsoft Journal which is intended to be a note-taking replacement for the pad of paper you would typically take to a meeting. Everything you write on the pad is stored as graphics- called digital ink- unless you highlight an area and ask the machine to recognise what you wrote PC makers working on Windows XP Tablet PCs include Acer, apag, Fujitsu, Tatung and Toshi
74 S. Kumar There have been a number of satellite operators like the examples given above who eventually went bankrupt due to lower incomes than expectations. The reasons for this hardship can be described by the following: • the satellite industry has a long wait between design and profitability, i.e. it can make money only after 10 years in orbit and needs to build the entire network before signing up its first customer • manufacturers must lock down technology more than 3 years before launches • the industry bets on a market up to 15 years. These are the major negative factors most satellite communication providers are encountering nowadays. Some analysts still see good opportunities for this industry, for example, Futron [10], a technology management consulting firm based in Maryland, predicts that the satellite transponder business will grow more than 75% within 10 years from now. This would be a good opportunity for satellite operators to turn to focus on video/audio and broadband markets rather than sticking to only the voice market, which is forecasted to stay flat for the coming decade. 3.2.1 Handheld devices These devices have come a long way in the past few years, growing from little more than electronic organisers into useful business tools like pocket PCs or PC tablets. The devices can be categorised based on their applications and complexity as follows: • Personal Digital Assistant (PDA). A term for any small mobile handheld device that provides computing and information storage and retrieval capabilities for personal or business use, often for keeping schedule calendars and address book information handy. The hardware controls are supplied by either Palm OS or Microsoft Pocket PC. The major players in the hardware market include Palm (31%), Hewlett Packard (21%), Sony (8%), Toshiba (6%) and Casio (6%). At the end of 2002, the industry shipped 2.6 million units to consumers; a 0.9% increase from the previous year. [11]. • Smart Phone. A wireless phone with text and internet capabilities. It can handle wireless phone calls, hold addresses and take voice mail and can also access information on the internet and send and receive e-mail and fax transmissions. It can be viewed as a combination of a mobile phone and a PDA in a single gear. • PC Tablet. A new generation of slate-style portable computers from Microsoft and its partners promise to combine the flexibility of paper notepads with the best attributes of powerful notebook PCs. Microsoft has added a program called Microsoft Journal, which is intended to be a note-taking replacement for the pad of paper you would typically take to a meeting. Everything you write on the pad is stored as graphics – called digital ink – unless you highlight an area and ask the machine to recognise what you wrote. PC makers working on Windows XP Tablet PCs include Acer, Compaq, Fujitsu, Tatung and Toshiba
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century Pager. A small telecommunications device that receives(and, in some cases, transmits)alert signals and/or short messages. This type of device is convenient for people expecting telephone calls but who are not near a telephone set to make or return calls immediately. It is estimated that there will be 260 million pager users worldwide by 2003. The overall market revenue for paging/messaging is predicted to be S11.92 billion in 2005 (Wireless Week, The Future of Paging, Oct 1999)[12] 3.2.2 Wireless computing Wireless computing or Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) is the technology that enables a user to receive information such as e-mails and files directly from the internet or any networks to one's laptop, without the sender's knowledge of the serving network IP address, which may be a wireless LAN. The technology allows for the rerouting of information to the served network for wireless computing just as it does for mobile data services based on 2.5G and 3G technologies For this application, there are two competing technologies in this field; Bluetooth and Bluetooth. An open specification for seamless wireless short-range(less than 30 feet) communications of data and voice between both mobile and stationary devices For instance, it specifies how mobile phones, computers and PDAs interconnect with each other, with computers, and with office or home phones. The first generation of Bluetooth permits exchange of data up to a rate of 1 Mbps, even in areas with a large amount of electromagnetic disturbanc Wi-Fi(802. 11b) Provides for wireless Ethernet transmission primarily between aptos or PDAs and local access nodes that attach to a standard corporate Lan Todays 802. 1lb products transmit in the unlicensed spectrum at 2.5 GHz, and are capable of speeds of up to 11 Mbps. This standard, despite higher speed, is not litable for mobile applications or moving devices 3.2.3 M-commerce M-Commerce is the use of radio-based wireless devices such as cell phones and PDAs to conduct business-to-business and business-to-consumer transactions over wired web-based e-commerce systems [13]. This application should be seen as a complement of existing e-commerce, which focuses on different groups of customers. Nowadays, we might see examples of m-commerce in forms of m-banking, m-payment and latest, e-vending[14
Mobile communications: global trends in the 21st century 75 • Pager. A small telecommunications device that receives (and, in some cases, transmits) alert signals and/or short messages. This type of device is convenient for people expecting telephone calls, but who are not near a telephone set to make or return calls immediately. It is estimated that there will be 260 million pager users worldwide by 2003. The overall market revenue for paging/messaging is predicted to be $11.92 billion in 2005 (Wireless Week, ‘The Future of Paging’, Oct 1999) [12]. 3.2.2 Wireless computing Wireless computing or Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) is the technology that enables a user to receive information such as e-mails and files directly from the internet or any networks to one’s laptop, without the sender’s knowledge of the serving network IP address, which may be a wireless LAN. The technology allows for the rerouting of information to the served network for wireless computing just as it does for mobile data services based on 2.5G and 3G technologies. For this application, there are two competing technologies in this field; Bluetooth and 802.11b or Wi-Fi: • Bluetooth. An open specification for seamless wireless short-range (less than 30 feet) communications of data and voice between both mobile and stationary devices. For instance, it specifies how mobile phones, computers and PDAs interconnect with each other, with computers, and with office or home phones. The first generation of Bluetooth permits exchange of data up to a rate of 1 Mbps, even in areas with a large amount of electromagnetic disturbance. • Wi-Fi (802.11b). Provides for wireless Ethernet transmission primarily between laptops or PDAs and local access nodes that attach to a standard corporate LAN. Today’s 802.11b products transmit in the unlicensed spectrum at 2.5 GHz, and are capable of speeds of up to 11 Mbps. This standard, despite higher speed, is not suitable for mobile applications or moving devices. 3.2.3 M-commerce M-Commerce is the use of radio-based wireless devices such as cell phones and PDAs to conduct business-to-business and business-to-consumer transactions over wired, web-based e-commerce systems [13]. This application should be seen as a complement of existing e-commerce, which focuses on different groups of customers. Nowadays, we might see examples of m-commerce in forms of m-banking, m-payment and latest, e-vending [14]:
76 S Kumar M-banking. Piloted by NTT DoCoMo, now Japanese mobile phone users can make payments and withdraw cash via mobile phone handset. The technology allows people to withdraw and deposit money at cashpoints in convenience stores and ipermarkets using mobile phones instead of cash cards [15] text message with their password, the amount they want to send and the recipient M-payment. The m-Payment service allows users to initiate a payment by sending mobile phone number. The users can also include a short message. As long as the person is on the GSM network, the service will transfer the funds and the recipient is notified via SMs. The system providers anticipated launching the technology with ticket reservation and restaurant businesses [16 E-vending. Cellenium, a mobile commerce technology provider, and Coca-Cola Beverages(CCB )AG in Switzerland are launching a text of wireless intelligent vending that will communicate real-time data to allow remote monitoring of machine functions and inventory. The vending machines will also be equipped to accept m-payments from consumers using their cell phones to purchase drinks. Celleniur will provide both the telemetry and the m-payment technologies combined in one solution [17] 4 Competition landscape In the competition landscape of mobile phone market, we can group the battlefields into three areas- protocols or standards; airtime carriers; and handset manufacturers 4.1 Competing protocols/standards /18) The evolution of various protocols for mobile communications over the past two decades began with first-ge followed in the early 1990s by the introduction of second-generation voice and data devices based on the Gsm technology. In early 2000, third-generation high-speed multimedia devices were introduced based on IMT 2000 Project standards. The progression is shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 Protocol competition over time High Speed 3rd generation Multimedia MT2000) Voice data 2 Generation(GSM) I Generation(Analog) 1980 2000 2010
76 S. Kumar • M-banking. Piloted by NTT DoCoMo, now Japanese mobile phone users can make payments and withdraw cash via mobile phone handset. The technology allows people to withdraw and deposit money at cashpoints in convenience stores and supermarkets using mobile phones instead of cash cards [15]. • M-payment. The m-Payment service allows users to initiate a payment by sending a text message with their password, the amount they want to send and the recipient’s mobile phone number. The users can also include a short message. As long as the person is on the GSM network, the service will transfer the funds and the recipient is notified via SMS. The system providers anticipated launching the technology with ticket reservation and restaurant businesses [16]. • E-vending. Cellenium, a mobile commerce technology provider, and Coca-Cola Beverages (CCB) AG in Switzerland are launching a text of wireless intelligent vending that will communicate real-time data to allow remote monitoring of machine functions and inventory. The vending machines will also be equipped to accept m-payments from consumers using their cell phones to purchase drinks. Cellenium will provide both the telemetry and the m-payment technologies combined in one solution [17]. 4 Competition landscape In the competition landscape of mobile phone market, we can group the battlefields into three areas – protocols or standards; airtime carriers; and handset manufacturers – as described in this section. 4.1 Competing protocols/standards [18] The evolution of various protocols for mobile communications over the past two decades began with first-generation voice–analogue devices. These were followed in the early 1990s by the introduction of second-generation voice and data devices based on the GSM technology. In early 2000, third-generation high-speed multimedia devices were introduced based on IMT 2000 Project standards. The progression is shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 Protocol competition over time
