16.682 The Aerospace Industry april 13 class Special guests Heidi wood Myles walton Col John Keesee
16.682 The Aerospace Industry April 13 Class Special Guests: Heidi Wood Myles Walton Col. John Keesee
Plan for the class 3: 05-3: 10 Announcements and introductions Write one question about market Focus on 3X5 card 3: 10-3: 35 Cargo Aircraft Growth lean Thinking 3: 35-3: 55 Market Focus-Heidi wood 3:55-4:05 Break 4: 05-4: 50 Ay Week article discussions The Us government should give higher priority to r&d investment in Zero Point energy than scramjet propulsion NASa Should use commercial space transportation exclusively 4: 50-4:55 Muddy cards 4:55 Adjourn
Plan for the Class 3:05-3:10 Announcements and Introductions Write one question about Market Focus on 3X5 card 3:10-3:35 Cargo Aircraft Growth & Lean Thinking 3:35-3:55 Market Focus - Heidi Wood 3:55-4:05 Break 4:05-4:50 Av Week Article Discussions • The US Government should give higher priority to R&D investment in Zero Point Energy than scramjet propulsion. • NASA should use commercial space transportation exclusively 4:50-4:55 Muddy cards 4:55 Adjourn
World GDP growth deep recession and strong recovery GDP annual growth forecast Pre-attack 5%20000 2003-20 3.5%pa 2000-2020 3.3%p.a 33%5D 3% 2% Post-attack 000-2003 20032020 1% 23%D.a 3.3%p.a 32%p.a 0% 20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 Source: DRPWEFA Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission ,Air cargo growth correlates with gDP growth .World gdP expected to average 3. 2% growth per year World air cargo traffic expected to grow at 6. 4%per year Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 However, most major market forecasters predict that world GDP will make a strong recovery, which will then of course be the impetus for strong recovery in the air cargo market. The predictions for the next twenty years are for world GDP to grow on average 3. 2% per year and for world air cargo traffic to grow on average 6.4% per year
•Air cargo growth correlates with GDP growth •World GDP expected to average 3.2% growth per year •World air cargo traffic expected to grow at 6.4% per year Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 However, most major market forecasters predict that world GDP will make a strong recovery, which will then of course be the i mpetus for strong recovery in the air cargo market. The predictions for the next twenty years are for world GDP to grow on average 3.2% per year and for world air cargo traffic to grow on average 6.4% per year. Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission
Commercial Drivers for Growth in Air Cargo Globalization trends Longer distances between producers and consumers Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa · Lean manufacturing Faster response to market demand e.g.JIT Focus on "flow to eliminate waste Air freight operators looking for new markets Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface Gap in capability-"middle market Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days Air is expensive but takes only a few day Operating economics drive Increased capacity per air freighter Reduced crew and fuel costs
Commercial Drivers for Growth in Air Cargo • Globalization trends – Longer distances between producers and consumers – Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa • Lean manufacturing – Focus on “flow” to eliminate waste, e.g. JIT – Faster response to market demands • Air freight operators looking for new markets – Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface – Gap in capability- “middle market” • Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days • Air is expensive but takes only a few days • Operating economics drive – Increased capacity per air freighter – Reduced crew and fuel costs
Regional growth Average annual FTK growth rate(%p a) Top Ten markets 2000-2020 World 7tI average 5.5% 2 foz 0 of word 2000 FTK 14.7%8.7%8.5%6.8%6.7%6.3%3.7%3.7%3.2%2.4% Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission Asia growing fastest; mature markets growing slower Air cargo growth( domestic and international) through China airports expected to grow 11.2% per annum for next 20 years Jiang, et al (MIT ICAT), "Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China Now here is a chart of the top ten air freight markets in the next twenty years according to the global Market Forecast produced by Airbus. As is evident, the fastest growing markets are those linking Asia to other regions as well as Intra Asia whereas the domestic US market and other maturing markets will grow much more slowly
Regional Growth •Asia growing fastest; mature markets growing slower •Air cargo growth (domestic and international) through China airports expected to grow 11.2% per annum for next 20 years Jiang, et al (MIT ICAT), “Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China” Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 Now here is a chart of the top ten air freight markets in the next twenty years according to the Global Market Forecast produced by Airbus. As is evident, the fastest growing markets are those linking Asia to other regions as well as Intra Asia whereas the do mestic US market and other maturing markets will grow much more slowly. Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission
Responses to Drivers omage remeved due oping consideration Existing technology More wide body aircraft (Image removed due to copyright considerations Many converted passenger aircraft Larger aircraft-A380 Advanced technologies /s Blended Wing Body Wing in ground effect Lighter than air craft Formation flight
Responses to Drivers • Existing technology – More wide body aircraft • Many converted passenger aircraft – Larger aircraft - A380 • Advanced technologies – Blended Wing Body – Wing in Ground Effect – Lighter than air craft – Formation flight (Image removed due to copyright considerations.) (Image removed due to copyright considerations.)
The boeing 747-400SF Program Discussion points for av week article What units comprise the program core enterprise? What organizations comprise the program extended enterprise? What other programs within boeing compete or interact with the 747-400SF? What factors would influence a value proposition for converting passenger aircraft to freighters rather than purchasing brand new freighter aircraft models? What other Lean enterprise valuefootprints'do ou see in reading these articles?
The Boeing 747-400SF Program Discussion points for AvWeek Article • What units comprise the program core enterprise? • What organizations comprise the program extended enterprise? • What other programs within Boeing compete or interact with the 747-400SF? • What factors would influence a value proposition for converting passenger aircraft to freighters rather than purchasing brand new freighter aircraft models? • What other Lean Enterprise Value “footprints” do you see in reading these articles?
Points captured from Class Discussion The us government should give higher priority to r&d investment in zero point Energy than scramjet propulsion OS ons Applications are much Looking at applied science for larger for ZPE scramjets vs science fiction for ZPE More stakeholders Wide variety of applications Auto. space Military, commerci New energy source to wean SSTO us from fossil fuels Challenge is engineering complexity does not need new phySICS I ike zpe Would drive student interest Now have a data point with recent test flight
Points Captured from Class Discussion The US Government should give higher priority to R&D investment in Zero Point Energy than scramjet propulsion. • P r o s – Applications are much larger for ZPE – More stakeholders • Auto, space,… – New energy source to wean us from fossil fuels • Cons – Looking at applied science for scramjets vs science fiction for ZPE – Wide variety of applications • Military, commercial • SSTO – Challenge is engineering complexity. Does not need new physics like ZPE – Would drive student interest – Now have a data point with recent test flight
Points captured from Class Discussion NAsa should use commercial space transportation exclusively Pros C ons Less time to launch with more Is not tailored to nasas providers objectives and missions More options Not human rated Spread liability Better wages better engineers If industry goes up, NASA priorities go down Leaner, no bureaucracy More stable industry If industry goes down NASA looses launch Allow nasa to focus on r&D Loose internal competency Eliminate internal nasa competition · What does nasa become Could open new markets
Points Captured from Class Discussion NASA should use commercial space transportation exclusively. • Cons – Is not tailored to NASA’s objectives and missions – Not human rat e d – If industry goes up, NASA priorities go down – If industry goes down, NASA looses launch – Loose internal competency • What does NASA become • P r o s – Less time to launch with more providers – More options – Spread liability – Better wages, better engineers – Leaner, no bureaucracy – More stable industry – Allow NASA t o focus on R&D – Eliminate internal NASA competition – Could open new markets
