七、现代经济发展理论 Modern Economic development Theories 假设:科学技术进步、工业化、经济增长是发展月标 欧美发展模式是可借鉴的 Assumption: development objectives-technology progress, industrialization, economic growth and models in Europe and America could be used as references 资本积累和工业化理论 Theories on industrialization and capital accumulation 二元经济理论 Theory on Dual- Economy 依附理论 Theory of Dependency Development Economics I Theories
七、现代经济发展理论 Modern Economic Development Theories 假设：科学技术进步、工业化、经济增长是发展目标 欧美发展模式是可借鉴的 Assumption: development objectives—technology progress, industrialization, economic growth and models in Europe and America could be used as references • 资本积累和工业化理论Theories on industrialization and capital accumulation • 二元经济理论 Theory on Dual-Economy • 依附理论 Theory of Dependency Development Economics I Theories
(一)哈罗德-多马经济增长模型 Harrod-Domar Economic Growth Model (Neo-classical Growth) 1、中心问题 Central question 个国家在长时期内的国民收入和就业的稳定均衡增长 所需要的收入增长条件? What is the rate of income growth necessary for smooth economic development?
（一）哈罗德-多马经济增长模型 Harrod-Domar Economic Growth Model (Neo-classical Growth) 1、中心问题 Central question 一个国家在长时期内的国民收入和就业的稳定均衡增长 所需要的收入增长条件？What is the rate of income growth necessary for smooth economic development?
理论的假定前提 Strong assumptions 全社会所生产的产品只有一种,消费品或资本品one product in all society, consumption goods or capital goods 只有劳动和资本两种生产要素 two production factors-labor and capital 就业均衡 initial full employment equilibrium 立品的规模收益不变 stable of scaled revenue of the products 不存在技术进步 without technology progress
2、理论的假定前提 Strong assumptions 全社会所生产的产品只有一种，消费品或资本品one product in all society, consumption goods or capital goods 只有劳动和资本两种生产要素two production factors-labor and capital 就业均衡 initial full employment equilibrium 产品的规模收益不变stable of scaled revenue of the products 不存在技术进步without technology progress
3、结论 Conclusions Domar:为了实现充分就业的经济增长,要求: For full employment growth rate, it is required that g=dl=ad(rate of net investment g, full employment growth rate;a,边际储蓄率 product of th ne marginal propensity to save;8,边际资本生产率 marginal productivity of capital Harrod:Gw=sC(Gw,有保证的增长率 Warranted rate of growth then to actual rate of growth;s,储蓄率 saving rate,C,边际资本产 出率 Incremental capital-output ratio 资本存量第一重要而忽视其他因素 concern only capital stock but dministrative, managerial or institutional were ignored
3、结论 Conclusions Domar: 为了实现充分就业的经济增长，要求: For full employment growth rate, it is required that g=dl=аδ (rate of net investment) g，full employment growth rate；а, 边际储蓄率 product of the marginal propensity to save； δ, 边际资本生产率marginal productivity of capital Harrod: Gw=s/C (Gw, 有保证的增长率Warranted rate of Growth then to actual rate of growth; s, 储蓄率saving rate, C, 边际资本产 出率incremental capital-output ratio) 资本存量第一重要而忽视其他因素 concern only capital stock but dministrative, managerial or institutional were ignored
(二)罗斯托增长理论-起飞理论 The rostowian Stages-of-growth Theory: Take-off Theory 发展的线性历史过程 Liner process of development (罗斯托,19060《经济增长的阶段推共产党宣言》A Non-communist Manifesto The hearts and minds of the people of the Third World could be won over of american capitalism through a Marshall Plan type offoreign aid. The lesson ofeconomic history, i.e. Western experience. is that the tricks of growth are not that difficult Distinct time segments, characterized by different sources and patterns of economic changes and it is a specific succession of these segments, so that b cannot occur before a, or c before b
（二）罗斯托增长理论--起飞理论 The Rostowian Stages-of-growth Theory:Take-off Theory 发展的线性历史过程Liner process of development （罗斯托，1960《经济增长的阶段——非共产党宣言》A Non-communist Manifesto） The hearts and minds of the people of the Third World could be won over of American capitalism through a Marshall Plan type of foreign aid. The lesson of economic history, i.e. Western experience… is that the tricks of growth are not that difficult Distinct time segments, characterized by different sources and patterns of economic changes and it is a specific succession of these segments, so that b cannot occur before a, or c before b
Interlinked stages turning points and leading sectors -essential elements 1、传统社会阶段 The traditional society 现代科学革命之前的社会 before revolution of modern technology 没有现代的科学和技术 traditional s&T 资源多配置在农业而不是工业 resources allocated in Agriculture 僵硬的社会结构,阻碍经济变革 stark social structure 生产力水平、生产率低下 low productiv 人均实际收入仅够维持生存 subsistence standard
1、传统社会阶段 The traditional society 现代科学革命之前的社会 before revolution of modern technology 没有现代的科学和技术 traditional S&T 资源多配置在农业而不是工业 resources allocated in Agriculture. 僵硬的社会结构，阻碍经济变革 stark social structure 生产力水平、生产率低下 low productivity 人均实际收入仅够维持生存 subsistence standard Interlinked stages turning points and leading sectors –essential elements
2、为起飞创造前提阶段 the preconditions for take-off 近代科学知识开始发挥作用 modern science and knowledge 金融机构开始出现;商业扩大;农业的贡献;近代工业开 始迅速发展 Financial institute, commercial sector; agricultural urplus, modern industrial 政治上相应的变革,发展统一市场,维持一种财政制度, 资本积累 reform of politics, common market, fiscal system capital accumulation 时期:英国是第 大约经历20-30年 Britain
2、为起飞创造前提阶段 the preconditions for take-off 近代科学知识开始发挥作用 modern science and knowledge 金融机构开始出现；商业扩大；农业的贡献；近代工业开 始迅速发展 Financial institute, commercial sector; agricultural surplus, modern industrial 政治上相应的变革，发展统一市场，维持一种财政制度， 资本积累 reform of politics, common market, fiscal system, capital accumulation 时期：英国是第一个，大约经历20-30年 Britain
3、起飞阶段 the take-off The most important stage that is the launching pad of accelerated capitalist growth, which means the rate of economic growth could be deliberately accelerated The take-off was defined as requiring all three of the following related conditions 提高生产性的投资率 a rise in the rate of productive investment from say, 5 percent or less to over 10 percent of national/net national income 建立和扩展“主导部门” the development of one or more substantial manufacturing sectors, with a high rate of growth 进行一些变革,有政治、社会和制度保证 the existence of quick emergence of a political, social, and institutional framework that exploits the impulses to expansion in the modern sector时期:大致为30年
3、起飞阶段the take-off The most important stage that is the launching pad of accelerated capitalist growth, which means the rate of economic growth could be deliberately accelerated The take-off was defined ‘as requiring all three of the following related conditions’: 提高生产性的投资率 a rise in the rate of productive investment from say, 5 percent or less to over 10 percent of national/net national income 建立和扩展“主导部门” the development of one or more substantial manufacturing sectors, with a high rate of growth 进行一些变革，有政治、社会和制度保证 the existence of quick emergence of a political, social, and institutional framework that exploits the impulses to expansion in the modern sector 时期：大致为30年
4、向成熟推进阶段 the drive to maturity 主导部门:钢、新式船舰、化学品及现代工作母机等 leading sectors: steel, shipboard, chemical products, master machine 人均收入持续增长,技术不断改进 persisting increase of Income, Improvement of technology 经济结构:农业劳动力比例从40%降到20% economic structure 时期:发达国家经过40多年;一些发展中国家,20世纪 60年代进入
4、向成熟推进阶段the drive to maturity 主导部门：钢、新式船舰、化学品及现代工作母机等 leading sectors: steel, shipboard, chemical products, master machine 人均收入持续增长，技术不断改进persisting increase of income, improvement of technology 经济结构：农业劳动力比例从40%降到20% economic structure 时期：发达国家经过40多年；一些发展中国家，20世纪 60年代进入
5、群众性高额消费阶段 the age of mass consumption 主导部门:耐用消费品和服务业方面 durabl 资源结构:日益增大的资源用来生产耐用消费品和劳务; 技术工人在劳动中的比率、城市居民在总人口中的比率 上升;供社会福利及保障的资源增大 resource structures 时期:美国始于1913-1914年福特汽车公司开始采用自动 装配线时;西欧和日本则在20世纪50年代进入这一阶段 Ford assembly line
5、 群众性高额消费阶段the age of mass consumption 主导部门：耐用消费品和服务业方面 durables 资源结构：日益增大的资源用来生产耐用消费品和劳务； 技术工人在劳动中的比率、城市居民在总人口中的比率 上升；供社会福利及保障的资源增大 resource structures 时期：美国始于1913-1914年福特汽车公司开始采用自动 装配线时；西欧和日本则在20世纪50年代进入这一阶段 Ford assembly line