清华大学：《经济学原理》课程教学资源（课件讲义）第二章作为科学家的经济学家（2/2）.pdf_大学文库

1 宏观经济变量 Macroeconomic Variables 第2章（教材2） Chapter 02 主要的宏观经济变量 Major Macroeconomic Variable 产出、失业和通货膨胀，这些词语每天都出现在报纸和晚间新闻里。 The words output, unemployment, and inflation appears daily in newspapers and on the evening news. 总产出 Aggregate Output 在十九世纪早期，以及在大萧条期间，研究经济活动的经济学家们根本没有可靠的整体经济活动的衡量方法。 Economists studying economic activity in the nineteenth century or during the Great Depression had no measure of aggregate(total) activity on which to rely. 直到二战结束后，在主要国家里，才汇总出了国民收入与产品帐户（简称国民收入帐户）。 It was not until the end of World War II that national income and product accounts (or national income accounts, for short) were put together in major countries. 总产出 Aggregate Output 与其他帐户体系一样，国民收入帐户定义一些概念，然后构造对应于这些概念的衡量指标。 Like any accounting system, the national income accounts define concepts, and then construct measures corresponding to these concepts. 没有这一帐户，数字的相加就成为问题。 Without them, numbers that should add up do not. GDP、增加值和收入 GDP, Value Added, and Income 在国民收入帐户中，总产出的衡量指标是国内生产总值，简称GDP。 The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP, for short. GDP、增加值和收入 GDP, Value Added, and Income 考虑一个经济中的GDP有三种方法： There are three ways of thinking about an economy’s GDP: GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中所生产的最终产品与服务GDP的价值。 GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period. GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中增加值之和。 GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period. GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中收入之和。 GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during a given period

GDP:最终产品法 GDP:最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach GDP: Final Goods Approach ◆关键词是最终。企业1:钢厂Fm1: Steel Company The important word is final 销收入 Revenues from sales ◆例子:假设一个经济仅有两个企业组成支出(工资) Expenses(wages) 利润Prot「GDP是多少 What is GDP s310或or$210 An example: Suppose that the economy is 企业2:汽车厂Frm2: Car Company composed of just two firms. 销售收入 Revenues from sales s170 购买钢 Steel purchases 利润 Profit s40 GDP:最终产品法 GDP:增加值法 GDP: Final Goods Approach GDP: Value Added Approach ◆因为钢是中间产品用来生产最终产品(汽车)的产品,因而不应该被记入GDP一最终 ◆一个企业在生产过程中产生的增加值,被定义成它产出的价值减去在它生产中使用的中间物产品。品的价值 ecause steel is an intermediate good, a good in the production of the final good, cars, The value added by a firm in the production and thus should not be counted in GDP-the process is defined as the value of its production value of final output minus the value of the intermediate goods it ◆另一个考虑的方法是设想两个企业合并后会发 uses in production. alue added Another way to think of this is to imagine what happens when the two firms merge. value of production- value of intermediate goods GDP:增加值法 GDP:最终产品法与增加值法 GDP: Value Added Approach GDP: Final Good vs Value Added Approach ◆在两企业的例子中 In the two- firm example ◆这两种定义隐含地说明了,最终物品与 ◆钢厂 Steel 服务的价值(方法1)也可以被看成是这 ◆没有中间物品 No intermediate goods 些最终物品生产链上的所有企业的增加 ●增加值 Value added=SI 值之和(方法2) ●汽车Cars The two definitions imply that the value ◆中间物品(钢) Intermediate goods(stee=S10 of final goods and services(the first ◆增加值 Value added=S210-5100=S110 approach) can also be thought of as the GDP ($210 sum of the value added by all firms along the chain of production of those final Value added steel (S100)+ value added cars($110) goods( the second approach)

2 GDP：最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach 关键词是最终。 The important word is final. 例子：假设一个经济仅有两个企业组成 …… An example: Suppose that the economy is composed of just two firms …… GDP：最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach 企业1：钢厂 Firm 1: Steel Company 销售收入 Revenues from sales $100 支出（工资）Expenses (wages) $80 利润 Profit $20 企业2：汽车厂 Firm 2: Car Company 销售收入 Revenues from sales $210 支出 Expenses $170 工资 Wages $70 购买钢 Steel purchases $100 利润 Profit $40 GDP是多少 What is GDP? $310 或or $210 GDP：最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach 因为钢是中间产品——用来生产最终产品（汽车）的产品，因而不应该被记入GDP——最终产品。 Because steel is an intermediate good, a good used in the production of the final good, cars, and thus should not be counted in GDP – the value of final output. 另一个考虑的方法是设想两个企业合并后会发生什么。 Another way to think of this is to imagine what happens when the two firms merge. GDP：增加值法 GDP: Value Added Approach 一个企业在生产过程中产生的增加值，被定义成它产出的价值减去在它生产中使用的中间物品的价值。 The value added by a firm in the production process is defined as the value of its production minus the value of the intermediate goods it uses in production. Value added = value of production - value of intermediate goods GDP：增加值法 GDP: Value Added Approach 在两企业的例子中 In the two-firm example: 钢厂 Steel 没有中间物品 No intermediate goods 增加值 Value added = $100 汽车 Cars 中间物品（钢）Intermediate goods (steel) = $100 增加值 Value added = $210 - $100 = $110 Value added steel ($100) value added cars ($110) GDP ($210) + = GDP：最终产品法与增加值法 GDP: Final Good vs. Value Added Approach 这两种定义隐含地说明了，最终物品与服务的价值（方法1）也可以被看成是这些最终物品生产链上的所有企业的增加值之和（方法2）。 The two definitions imply that the value of final goods and services (the first approach) can also be thought of as the sum of the value added by all firms along the chain of production of those final goods (the second approach)

3 GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach 到目前为止，我们都是从产出方来看 GDP。 We have looked so far at GDP from the production side. 看待GDP的第三种方法是从收入方来看。 A third way of looking at GDP is from the income side. GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach 考虑一个企业支付中间产品后剩下的收益： Think about the revenue left to a firm after it has paid for intermediate goods. 一些收益以对销售征税的方式被政府获得，这样的税被称作间接税。 Some of the revenues are collected by the government in the form of taxes on sales – such taxes are called indirect taxes. 一些收益付给工人——这一部分被称作劳动收入。 Some of the revenues go to pay workers – this component is called labor income. 余下的进入企业——这一部分被称作资本收入。 The rest goes to the firm – that component is called capital income. GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach 从收入方看企业，增加值就是间接税、劳动收入和资本收入之和。 Looking at the firm from the income side, value added is the sum of indirect taxes, labor income, and capital income. capital income labor income GDP (income) indirect taxes + + = GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach Income (steel) Labor = $80 Capital = $20 $100 Income (car) Labor = $70 Capital = $40 $110 valueaddedcar($110) GDP(valueadded--$210) valueaddedsteel($100) + = Compared to: GDP (income) = $100 + $110 = $210 Income (whole) Labor = $150(71%) Capital = $ 60(29%) $210(100%) 美国按收入分类的GDP构成（1960和1998年） The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960 and 1998 Labor income 66% 65% Capital income 26% 27% Indirect taxes 8% 8% In Percent 1960 1998 名义和实际GDP Nominal and Real GDP 名义GDP是生产的最终产品的数量乘以它们的当期价格再求和。 Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price. 名义GDP随时间上升的原因有两种： Nominal GDP increases over time for two reasons. 大多数产品的产量随时间上升。 The production of most goods increases over time. 大多数产品的价格也随时间上升。 The prices of most goods also increases over time

名义和实际GDP 名义和实际GDP:单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP Nominal and Real gDP ne (oo conomy ◆如果我们想衡量的是产量及其变动,我们就需年份汽车数量汽车价格名义GDP 要消除价格上升的影响 Year quantity price of Nominal GDP If our intention is to measure production and fCarsCars(%上升 ts change over time, we need to eliminate the increase) effect of increasing prices. 199110 s10,000s1000 ◆因此我们将实际GDP构造成最终产品数量乘以 Thats why real GDP is constructed as the sum 199212 s12,000s144000 of the quantities of final goods times constant rather than current) prices. 19313 s13000s169,000 (16%) 名义和实际GDP:单一产品经济义和买际GDP: 品经 Nominal and Real gDP: Nominal and Real GDP One Good Economy One Good Economy ◆如何定义实际GDP? 年份汽车数量汽车价格名义GDP以199年美元 How should we define real GDP? r Quantity Price of 量的实际 of Cars Cars ●可以定义成汽车的数量。 Real gDP in We can define it as the number of cars 1992 Dollars ◆或者用一个共同的价格来乘汽车的数量,例如 I(% increase 用1992年汽车价格 199110 Or we can define it by multiplying the number s100500005200 of cars in each year by a common price, say, the 199212 s12,000|s144.00s144000 price of a car in 1992. 方法实际上给出了以92年美元量的实际 (44%) 199313 s3,00s169,000 s156,000 The approach gives us in effect real GDP in 1992 (16% 名义和实际GDP:单一产品经济名义和实际GDP:多产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy Multi-Good Economy ◆如果我们用1993年价格来衡量实际GDP,结果 ◆当最终产品数量不只一种时,实际GDP必须定会怎样? 的加严均。这就导致 What if we decided to measure real GDP in 993 prices? When there is more than one final good, real ◆实际GDP的水平值会不同,但其逐年的增长率 GDP must be defined as a the output of all final goods, which brings th 不变 The level of real gDP would be different, but ◆物品的相对价格看起来是理所应当的权重 s increase from year to year would be the Relative prices of the goods would appear to be same as above natur al weights

4 名义和实际GDP Nominal and Real GDP 如果我们想衡量的是产量及其变动，我们就需要消除价格上升的影响。 If our intention is to measure production and its change over time, we need to eliminate the effect of increasing prices. 因此我们将实际GDP构造成最终产品数量乘以不变（而非当期）价格再求和。 That’s why real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods times constant (rather than current) prices. 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy $169,000 (16%) 1993 13 $13,000 $144,000 (44%) 1992 12 $12,000 1991 10 $10,000 $100,000 名义GDP Nominal GDP (% 上升 increase) 汽车价格 Price of Cars 汽车数量 Quantity of Cars 年份 Year 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy 如何定义实际GDP？ How should we define real GDP? 可以定义成汽车的数量。 We can define it as the number of cars. 或者用一个共同的价格来乘汽车的数量，例如，用1992年汽车价格。 Or we can define it by multiplying the number of cars in each year by a common price, say, the price of a car in 1992. 这一方法实际上给出了以1992年美元衡量的实际 GDP。 The approach gives us in effect real GDP in 1992 dollars. 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy $156,000 (8%) $169,000 (16%) 1993 13 $13,000 $144,000 (20%) $144,000 (44%) 1992 12 $12,000 1991 10 $10,000 $100,000 $120,000 以1992年美元衡量的实际 GDP Real GDP in 1992 Dollars (% increase) 名义GDP Nominal GDP (% increase) 汽车价格 Price of Cars 汽车数量 Quantity of Cars 年份 Year 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy 如果我们用1993年价格来衡量实际GDP，结果会怎样？ What if we decided to measure real GDP in 1993 prices? 实际GDP的水平值会不同，但其逐年的增长率不变。 The level of real GDP would be different, but its increase from year to year would be the same as above. 名义和实际GDP：多产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: Multi-Good Economy 当最终产品数量不只一种时，实际GDP必须定义成所有最终产品产出的加权平均。这就导致一个问题：权重应该时多少？ When there is more than one final good, real GDP must be defined as a weighted average of the output of all final goods, which brings the question of what the weights should be. 物品的相对价格看起来是理所应当的权重。 Relative prices of the goods would appear to be the natural weights

5 名义和实际GDP：多产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: Multi-Good Economy 不过，如果相对价格随时间改变（这种情况经常发生），又该怎么办？ What if, as often the case, relative prices change over time? 固定一年（基年）的相对价格作为权重 Choose the relative prices in a given year (base year) as weights 权重随时间改变 Change the weights over time 在美国国民收入帐户中，实际GDP的衡量指标被称作以环比（1992）美元衡量的实际GDP，为后者的一种形式。 The measure of real GDP in the U.S. national income accounts is called real GDP in chained (1992) dollars, a form of the latter. 美国的名义与实际GDP Real U.S. GDP 名义和实际的同义词 Synonyms of Nominal and Real GDP 名义GDP(表示为$Yt ) Nominal GDP 美元GDP dollar GDP 以现价衡量的GDP GDP in current dollars 实际GDP(表示为Yt ) Real GDP 以实物衡量的GDP GDP in terms of goods 以不变价衡量的GDP GDP in constant dollars 通货膨胀调整的GDP GDP adjusted for inflation GDP增长 GDP Growth GDP在第t年的增长率是指实际GDP在第t年的变化率。 GDP growth in year t will refer to the rate of change of real GDP in year t. GDP growth (%) = 100%*(Yt -Yt-1)/Yt-1 GDP增长 GDP Growth GDP正增长的时期被成为扩张期。 Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansion. GDP负增长的时期被称作衰退期。 Periods of negative GDP growth are called recession. 只在经济至少持续两个季度负增长时才用这个词。 Macroeconomists usually use the word only if the economy goes through at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格 Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers 计算实际GDP的一个棘手问题是如何对待已有物品的质量变化。尤其是计算机。 A tough problem in computing real GDP is dealing with changes in quality in existing goods. One of the most difficult cases is computers. 我们能够假设1999年的一台个人计算机和1987 年的计算机是同样的产品吗？ Should we assume that a personal computer in 1999 is the same good as a computer produced in 1987?

实际GDP,技术进步与计算机价格实际GDP,技术进步与计算机价格 Real gDP, Technological Progress, and the Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers Price of Computers ◆经济学家用来调整这些质量改进的办法是机察在给 ◆使用这一方法,(美国)商务部估计,自1987年以来新计算机的质量每年平均上升15% ime approachs us to boy get hoi the m arlkuest varus sing this approach, the Department of Commerce timates that the quality of new comput year puters with different characteristics in a given increased on average 15% a year since 1987. ●虽然计算机的货币价格在同一时期每年下降10%,其 ◆这一方法将物品看成提供了一系列特征经质量调整的价格每年下降15%+10%25% Although the dollar price of computers has declined by about 10% a year since 1987. their quality adjusted ich treats goods rice has fallen at an average rate of 15%+10%m25% ollection of characteristics(here speed, memory, an per year. so on) each with an implicit price, is called hedonic 失业率什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者? What determines whether a worker is Unemployment Rate counted as unemployed? ◆失业率被定义成失业人数与劳动力之比。盎昆衡人数毫头故图的在罗订的来失业办公室 The unemploy ment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force Until the 1940s in the United States, and more recently ◆劳动力被定义成就业人数与失业人数之和。 ther countries, the number of people registered at mployment office was the only available souree of The labor foree is defined as the sum of those data on unemployment. employed and those unemployed. ◆那些没有激局进行登记的人不被计入 Those who had no incentive to register were not U=U/L Unemployment rate unemployed /labor force 失业者就更有可能不去登失业率=失业人教/劳动力 Countries with less generous benefit systems were Labor force= e likely to have fewer unemployed registering, and 劳动力一就业人数+业人 therefore smaller measured unemploy ment rates. 什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者? 什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者? What determines whether a worker is What determines whether a worker is ounted as unemployed counted as unemployed? 许多国家依靠大规模的家计调查来计算 ◆如果在过去的四个垦期内,一个这一调查就把他 Today, most countries rely on large surveys of households to compute the unemployment rate. she does not have a job and has be ◆在美国,这一调查被称作当前人口调查。 ◆那些没有工作但也没有在找工作的被记入非劳动力。 In the United States, this survey is called the Current Population Survey (CPS). counted as not in the labor force ●该调查基于每月对6万户家庭的访谈。 ◆当失业率很高时,那些没有工作的人放弃了找工作, It relies on interviews of 60.000 households 而不被计入失业者。这些 nger counted as unemployed. These people are known as discouraged workers

6 实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格 Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers 经济学家用来调整这些质量改进的办法，是观察在给定年份中，市场如何对具有不同特征的计算机做出评价。 The approach used by economists to adjust for these improvements is to look at how the market values computers with different characteristics in a given year. 这一方法将物品看成提供了一系列特征（这里是速度、存储等）的组合，每一特征有一个隐含的价格，因此被称为享受定价。 This approach, which treats goods as providing a collection of characteristics (here speed, memory, and so on) each with an implicit price, is called hedonic pricing. 实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格 Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers 使用这一方法，（美国）商务部估计，自1987年以来，新计算机的质量每年平均上升15％。 Using this approach, the Department of Commerce estimates that the quality of new computers has increased on average 15% a year since 1987. 虽然计算机的货币价格在同一时期每年下降10％，其经质量调整的价格每年下降15%+10%=25% 。 Although the dollar price of computers has declined by about 10% a year since 1987, their quality adjusted price has fallen at an average rate of 15%+10%=25% per year. 失业率 Unemployment Rate 失业率被定义成失业人数与劳动力之比。 The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force 劳动力被定义成就业人数与失业人数之和。 The labor force is defined as the sum of those employed and those unemployed. U =U/L Unemployment rate = unemployed/labor force 失业率＝失业人数/劳动力 L = N + U Labor force = employed + unemployed 劳动力＝就业人数＋失业人数什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？ What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed? 美国在1940 年、其他国家在更近以前，在失业办公室登记的人数是失业数据的唯一可得的来源。 Until the 1940s in the United States, and more recently in other countries, the number of people registered at unemployment office was the only available source of data on unemployment. 那些没有激励进行登记的人不被计入。 Those who had no incentive to register were not counted. 福利体系不够慷慨的国家，失业者就更有可能不去登记，测量到的失业率就更小。 Countries with less generous benefit systems were likely to have fewer unemployed registering, and therefore smaller measured unemployment rates. 什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？ What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed? 今天，许多国家依靠大规模的家计调查来计算失业率。 Today, most countries rely on large surveys of households to compute the unemployment rate. 在美国，这一调查被称作当前人口调查。 In the United States, this survey is called the Current Population Survey (CPS). 该调查基于每月对6万户家庭的访谈。 It relies on interviews of 60,000 households every month. 什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？ What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed? 如果在过去的四个星期内，一个人没有工作，而且一直在寻找工作，这一调查就把他（她）归入失业者。 The survey classifies a person as unemployed if he or she does not have a job and has been looking for work in the last four weeks. 那些没有工作但也没有在找工作的被记入非劳动力。 Those not working and not looking for work are counted as not in the labor force. 当失业率很高时，那些没有工作的人放弃了找工作，因而不被计入失业者。这些人被称作气馁的工人。 When unemployment is high, some of those without jobs give up looking for work and therefore are no longer counted as unemployed. These people are known as discouraged workers

什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者? What determines whether a worker is 为什么要关心失业率? counted as unemployed? Why Care about Unemployment 一个更高的失业率通常和一个更低的参 ◆宏观经济学家关心失业率有两个原因: 工率相联系。参工率是劳动力与工作年 Macroeconomists care about 龄的总人口的比率 unemployment for two main reasons: A higher unemployment rate is typically ◆失业率告诉他们一个经济是否运行在其正常 associate with a lower participation rate. The unemployment rate tells them defined as the ratio of the labor foree to something about whether an economy is he total population of working age operating above or below its normal leveL. ◆失业率有重要的社会后果 Unemployment has important social consequences. 失业与经济活动奥肯定律 Unemployment and Activity Okun’sLaw ◆在大多数国家,失业率变化与GDP增长之间都有一个 In most countries, there is a clear relation between the change in unemployment and GDP growth. ◆这一关系被称作奥背定律。 This relation is known as Okun,'s law “待产增衣辈增类亚先光卖率的下降相联系 : It shows that high output growth is typically associated utput growth is associated with an increase in the unemployment rate. 失业与经济活动失业的社会影响 Unemployment and Activity Social Implications of Unemployment 率过高,就需要通过一段时期更高的增 F学家关心失业的另一个速由是它对于失业着 employment rate is too high, it will macroeconomists also care about unemployment igher growth to reduc ecause its direct effects on the welfare of the 的类业率精络禽语罩 ◆失业总是与金钱与心理的苷难相联系 he unemployment rate is about right, th Unemployment is associated with financial and utput should grow at the rate that is consistent with 轻人、少数族裔和非熟练工人)从失业号,以判 ome groups(often the young. the ethnic minorities, nd the unskilled) suffer disproportionately from ith a signal of where the economy unemployment. ands and what growth rate might be desirable

7 什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？ What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed? 一个更高的失业率通常和一个更低的参工率相联系。参工率是劳动力与工作年龄的总人口的比率。 A higher unemployment rate is typically associate with a lower participation rate, defined as the ratio of the labor force to the total population of working age. 为什么要关心失业率？ Why Care about Unemployment? 宏观经济学家关心失业率有两个原因： Macroeconomists care about unemployment for two main reasons: 失业率告诉他们一个经济是否运行在其正常水平上。 The unemployment rate tells them something about whether an economy is operating above or below its normal level. 失业率有重要的社会后果。 Unemployment has important social consequences. 失业与经济活动 Unemployment and Activity 在大多数国家，失业率变化与GDP增长之间都有一个清晰的关系。 In most countries, there is a clear relation between the change in unemployment and GDP growth. 这一关系被称作奥肯定律。 This relation is known as Okun’s law. 它表示高的产出增长率通常与失业率的下降相联系，低的产出增长率与失业率的上升相联系。 It shows that high output growth is typically associated with a decrease in the unemployment rate, and low output growth is associated with an increase in the unemployment rate. 奥肯定律 Okun’s Law 失业与经济活动 Unemployment and Activity 如果当前失业率过高，就需要通过一段时期更高的增长来加以降低。 If the current unemployment rate is too high, it will take a period of higher growth to reduce it. 如果相反的，失业率比较合适，那么产出应该维持在与一个不变的失业率相当的增长率上。 If, instead, the unemployment rate is about right, then output should grow at the rate that is consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate. 因此，失业率为宏观经济学家提供了一个信号，以判断经济处于何等位置，怎样的增长率是合意的。 The unemployment rate therefore provides macroeconomists with a signal of where the economy stands and what growth rate might be desirable. 失业的社会影响 Social Implications of Unemployment 宏观经济学家关心失业的另一个理由是它对于失业者福利的直接影响。 Macroeconomists also care about unemployment because its direct effects on the welfare of the unemployed. 失业总是与金钱与心理的苦难相联系。 Unemployment is associated with financial and psychological suffering. 一些群体（年轻人、少数族裔和非熟练工人）从失业中受到更大的损害。 Some groups (often the young, the ethnic minorities, and the unskilled) suffer disproportionately from unemployment

通货膨胀率 GDP平减指数 nflation rate The gdP Deflator ◆通货膨胀是一般价格水平的持续上升 ◆第年的GDP平减指数P被定义成第年的名义GDP与 Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of 实际GDP的比率。 rices,a sustained rise in the price level. ◆通货膨胀率(通胀率)是价格水平上升的速度 The GDP deflator in year t, Pr, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year: The inflation rate is the rate at which the price ◆这禅,名义GDP等于GDP平减指数乘以实际GDP Thus nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times real GDP Macroeconomists typically look at two measures of P= nominal GDP.- sY. he price level, at two price indexes: the GDP deflator and the consumer price index. s= PeY GDP平减指数消费价格指数 The gdp deflator The Consumer price Index GDP平减指数是一个指数 ●GDP平减给出了GDP中包括的物品经济中生产的最终物 The gdp deflator is an index number gives the average priee of the goods included in ◆它的水平值是人为选定的,没有经济含义 Its level is chosen arbitrarily and has no economic 清费者关心的是他们贵的物品的平均价 nterpretation Consumers care about the average price of the goods they ◆但是它的变化率有一个明确的经济含义:它给出了一般价格水平随时间上升的遠货膨胀率。 ●两种价格未必相同 Tbe two prices need not to be the same GDP中的某盐物品没有卖给贵者,面是卖给了企业(例如机器 Iterpretation: It gives the rate at which the general but to firms(e-g, level of prices goes up over time-the rate of 消费着购买的一盘物品不是国内生产的,而是从国外进口的。 nation the goods bought by consumers are not produced at home. but ratber imported from abroad. 消费价格指数消费价格指数 The Consumer price index The Consumer Price Index 为要测是零的剪举个整要说猜资费茅典的最活对表于高费激要究,冒在代一 To measure the average price of consumption pending, attempts to represent the consumption of a or equivalently, the cost of living typical urban consul macroeconomists look at another index, the ◆这一清单每10年修订1次(中国:5年大调,每年微调 consumer price index(CPi) It is revised every 10 year ◆CPI给出了不同时期给定清单的物品和服务以货币单位衡量的费用老最1然鹅员都调查南店, 搜集列 The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific Each month, Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) list of goods and services over time. employees visit stores to collect prices of the goods on the list

8 通货膨胀率 Inflation Rate 通货膨胀是一般价格水平的持续上升。 Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of prices, a sustained rise in the price level. 通货膨胀率（通胀率）是价格水平上升的速度。 The inflation rate is the rate at which the price level increases. 宏观经济学家通常看两种衡量价格水平的指标或价格指数：GDP平减指数和消费价格指数。 Macroeconomists typically look at two measures of the price level, at two price indexes: the GDP deflator and the consumer price index. GDP平减指数 The GDP Deflator 第t年的GDP平减指数Pt 被定义成第t年的名义GDP与实际GDP的比率。 The GDP deflator in year t , Pt , is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t: 这样，名义GDP等于GDP平减指数乘以实际GDP。 Thus nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times real GDP. Pt = nominal GDPt Real GDPt $Yt Yt = $Yt = Pt Yt GDP平减指数 The GDP Deflator GDP平减指数是一个指数。 The GDP deflator is an index number. 它的水平值是人为选定的，没有经济含义。 Its level is chosen arbitrarily and has no economic interpretation. 但是它的变化率有一个明确的经济含义：它给出了一般价格水平随时间上升的速度——通货膨胀率。 But its rate of change has a clear economic interpretation: It gives the rate at which the general level of prices goes up over time – the rate of inflation. 消费价格指数 The Consumer Price Index GDP平减指数给出了GDP中包括的物品——经济中生产的最终物品——的平均价格。 The GDP deflator gives the average price of the goods included in GDP – the final goods produced in the economy. 消费者关心的是他们消费的物品的平均价格。 Consumers care about the average price of the goods they consume. 两种价格未必相同 The two prices need not to be the same: GDP中的某些物品没有卖给消费者，而是卖给了企业（例如机器）、政府或者外国人。 Some of the goods in GDP are sold not to consumers but to firms (e.g., machine tools), to the government, or to foreigners. 消费者购买的一些物品不是国内生产的，而是从国外进口的。 Some of the goods bought by consumers are not produced at home, but rather imported from abroad. 消费价格指数 The Consumer Price Index 为了测量消费的平均价格，或者说，生活费用，宏观经济学家观察另一个指数——消费价格指数（CPI）。 To measure the average price of consumption, or equivalently, the cost of living, macroeconomists look at another index, the consumer price index (CPI). CPI给出了不同时期给定清单的物品和服务以货币单位衡量的费用。 The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of goods and services over time. 消费价格指数 The Consumer Price Index 这一清单基于对消费者支出的细致研究，旨在代表一个典型的城市（农村）消费者的消费。 The list, which is based on a detailed study of consumer spending, attempts to represent the consumption of a typical urban consumer. 这一清单每10年修订1次（中国：5年大调，每年微调。） It is revised every 10 years. 每个月，劳工统计据的雇员都要调查商店，以搜集列在清单上的物品的价格。 Each month, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employees visit stores to collect prices of the goods on the list

通货膨胀与失业通货膨胀与失业 Inflation and Unemployment Inflation and Unemployment 還常类年东蹙出尧资单奇系,但 There is a relation between inflation and either output or unemployment, but it is far from mechanical-it varies across time and country ◆美国自1979年以来,失业率与通胀的变化之间袭现出种负相关关系 the U. S. since 1970. there is a negative relation etween the unemployment rate and the change in nflation 关关系被称作苹利普斯关系,相应的曲线就 This negative relation is called the Phillips relation, and he curve is called the Phillips Curve 为什么经济学家会关心通胀? 为什么经济学家会关心通胀? Why Do Economists Care About Why do Economists Care About Inflation? 如果更高的通货资成比例德要区位考原有众参赛 ◆经济学家关心通胀恰是因为天下没有纯粹的通通胀只会带来小小的麻烦。 Economists care about inflation precisely proportional increase in all prices and wage-a because there is no such thing as pure inflation case call pure inflation-inflation would be onl 衡裡弊期圜电于我人有的价格和工资同比 a minor inconvenience During period of inflation, because not all ◆工人的实航以物品而非货币衡量的工 prices and wages rise proportionately, inflatio 资—将会保持不变。 affects income distribution The workers' real wage- the wage measured in ◆在许多国家,選休者的收入不随价格水平调整 erms of goods rather than in dollars -would Retirees in many country receive payments that do emain the same not keep up with the price level. 为什么经济学家会关心通胀? 为什么经济学家会关心通胀? Why Do Economists Care About Why Do Economists Care About Inflation Inflation? ◆通胀还会导致扭曲 nflation also leads to distortions. 相对价格的变动也会导致更大的不确定曲法缺哥字着价动比实他价格性,使得企业更难做出关于未来的决策 ,例如投资决策 ome prices, which are fixed by law or by regulation, lag behind the others, leading to changes in relative Variation in relative prices also lead to prices. more uncertainty, making it harder for 女大校:度资凌樱: firms to make decisions about the future such as investment decision If tax brackets are not adjusted for people nereases, even if their real income his is known as bracket cree

10 通货膨胀与失业 Inflation and Unemployment 通货膨胀与产出或失业之间确实存在一定的关系。但这种关系并不固定，而是随时间和国家而不同。 There is a relation between inflation and either output or unemployment, but it is far from mechanical – it varies across time and country. 美国自1979年以来，失业率与通胀的变化之间表现出一种负相关关系。 In the U.S. since 1970, there is a negative relation between the unemployment rate and the change in inflation. 这一负相关关系被称作菲利普斯关系，相应的曲线就是菲利普斯曲线。 This negative relation is called the Phillips relation, and the curve is called the Phillips Curve. 通货膨胀与失业 Inflation and Unemployment 为什么经济学家会关心通胀？ Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? 如果更高的通货膨胀仅仅意味着所有价格和工资成比例上升得更快——所谓纯粹通货膨胀— —通胀只会带来小小的麻烦。 If higher inflation meant just a faster proportional increase in all prices and wage – a case call pure inflation – inflation would be only a minor inconvenience. 工人的实际工资——以物品而非货币衡量的工资——将会保持不变。 The workers’ real wage – the wage measured in terms of goods rather than in dollars – would remain the same. 为什么经济学家会关心通胀？ Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? 经济学家关心通胀恰是因为天下没有纯粹的通胀。 Economists care about inflation precisely because there is no such thing as pure inflation. 在通胀期间，由于并非所有的价格和工资同比例上升，通胀影响了收入分配。 During period of inflation, because not all prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation affects income distribution. 在许多国家，退休者的收入不随价格水平调整。 Retirees in many country receive payments that do not keep up with the price level. 为什么经济学家会关心通胀？ Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? 通胀还会导致扭曲。 Inflation also leads to distortions. 一些价格由于被法律固定或者受到管制，比其他价格调整得更缓慢，这就导致了相对价格变动。 Some prices, which are fixed by law or by regulation, lag behind the others, leading to changes in relative prices. 如果税收档次不随通胀调整，当名义收入增加时，人们就会进入更高的税收档次，即使实际收入不变。这被称为税级潜移。 If tax brackets are not adjusted for inflation, people move into higher tax brackets as their nominal income increases, even if their real income remains the same. This is known as bracket creep. 为什么经济学家会关心通胀？ Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? 相对价格的变动也会导致更大的不确定性，使得企业更难做出关于未来的决策，例如投资决策。 Variation in relative prices also lead to more uncertainty, making it harder for firms to make decisions about the future, such as investment decision

清华大学：《经济学原理》课程教学资源（课件讲义）第二章 作为科学家的经济学家（2/2）

清华大学：《经济学原理》课程教学资源（课件讲义）第二章作为科学家的经济学家（2/2）