Globalization and governance Waltz.Kenneth N PS.Political Science Politics:Dec 1999:32.4:ProQuest Research Library pg.693 2破⅓能 Globalization and Governance n 1979 I described the interdependence become part of American design teams of states as low but increasing.It has without leaving their homelands.Before increased,but only to about the 1910 World War I.the close interdependence level if measured by trade or capital flows of states was thought of as heralding an as a percentage of GNP:lower if mea- era of peace among nations and democ- sured by the mobility of labor.and lower racy and prosperity within them.Associat still if measured by the mutual military ing interdependence,peace,democracy, dependence of states.Yet one feels that and prosperity is nothing new.In his the world has become a smaller one.In- much translated and widely read book. ternational travel has become faster,eas The Great Illusion (1933),Norman Angell ier,and cheaper;music,art,cuisines,and summed up the texts of generations of cinema have all become cosmopolitan in classical and neoclassical economists and the world's major centers and beyond. drew from them the dramatic conclusion The Peony Pavilion was produced in its that wars would no longer be fought be- entirety for the first time in 400 vears,and cause they would not pay.World War I it was presented not in Shanghai or Bei- instead produced the great disillusion. jing,but in New York.Communication is which reduced political optimism to a almost instantaneous. level that remained low almost until the by and more than words end of the Cold War.I say "almost"be- can be transmitted. cause beginning in the 1970s a new opti- Kenneth N.Waltz, which makes the re mism,strikingly similar in content to the Columbia University duced mobility of labor old,began to resurface.Interdependence of less consequence. was again associated with peace and peace High-technology jobs increasingly with democracy,which began can be brought to the workers instead of to spread wonderfully to Latin America the workers to the jobs:foreigners can to Asia.and with the Soviet Union's col Kenneth N.Waltz,1999 James Madison Lecturer PSOnline www.apsanet.org 693 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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lapse,to Eastern Europe.Francis Fukuyama (1992)fore- ness to investment and trade,and a stable currency.The saw a time when all states would be liberal democracies herd decides which countries to reward and which to and.more recently.Michael Dovle (1997)projected the punish,and nothing can be done about its decisions.In year for it to happen as lying between 2050 and 2100. September 1997.at a World Bank meeting,Malaysia's John Mueller (1989),heralding the disappearance of war prime minister.Dr.Mahathir Mohammad,complained among the world's advanced countries.argued that Nor- bitterly that great powers and international speculators man Angell's premises were right all along,but that he had forced Asian countries to open their markets and had published his book prematurely. had manipulated their currencies in order to destroy Robert Keohane and Joseph Nyc in their 1977 book, them.Friedman (1999,93)wonders what Robert Rubin. Power and Interdependence,strengthened the notion that then-U.S.treasury secretary.might have said in response. interdependence promotes peace and limits the use of He imagines it would have been something like this: force by arguing that simple interdependence had be- "What planet are you living on?...Globalization isn't a come complex interdependence,binding the economic choice,it's a reality....and the only way you can grow and hence the political interests of states ever more at the speed that your people want to grow is by tapping tightly together.Now.we hear from many sides that in- into the global stock and bond markets.by seeking out terdependence has reached yet another height,tran- multinationals to invest in your country,and by selling scending states and making The Borderless World,which into the global trading system what your factories pro- is the title and theme of Kenichi Ohmae's 1990 book. duce.And the most basic truth about globalization is People.firms,markets matter more;states matter less. this:No one is in charge.' Each tightening of the economic screw raises the benefits The herd has no telephone number.When the herd of economic exchange and makes war among the more decides to withdraw capital from a country,there is no advanced states increasingly costly.The simple and plau- one to complain to or to petition for relief.Decisions of sible propositions are that as the benefits of peace rise. the herd are collective ones.They are not made;they so do the costs of war.When states perceive wars to be happen.and they happen because many investors indi- immensely costly,they will be disinclined to fight them. vidually make decisions simultaneously and on similar War becomes rare,but is not abolished because even the grounds to invest or to withdraw their funds.Do what strongest economic forces cannot conquer fear or elimi- displeases the herd,and it will trample you into the nate concern for national honor (Friedman 1999,196- ground.Globalization is shaped by markets,not by gov- 97). ernments Economic interests become so strong that markets be- Globalization means homogenization.Prices,products gin to replace politics at home and abroad.That eco- wages.wealth.and rates of interest and profit tend to nomics depresses politics and limits its significance is become the same all over the world.Like any powerful taken to be a happy thought.The first section of this movement for change,globalization encounters resis- paper examines its application domestically;the second, tance-in America,from religious fundamentalists; internationallv. abroad,from anti-Americanists;everywhere from cul- tural traditionalists.And the resisters become bitter be- The State of the State cause consciously or not they know they are doomed. Driven by technology,international finance sweeps all Globalization is the fad of the 1990s,and globalization before it.Under the protection of American military is made in America.Thomas Friedman's The Lexus and power,globalization proceeds relentlessly.As Friedman the Olive Tree is a celebration of the American way,of proclaims:"America truly is the ultimate benign hege- market capitalism and liberal democracy.Free markets, mony”375) transparency,and flexibility are the watchwords.The The "end of the Cold War and the collapse of com- "electronic herd"moves vast amounts of capital in and munism have discredited all models other than liberal out of countries according to their political and eco- democracy."The statement is by Larry Diamond,and nomic merits.Capital moves almost instantaneously into Friedman repeats it with approval.There is one best countries with stable governments,progressive econo- way,and America has found it."It's a post-industrial mies,open accounting,and honest dealing,and out of world,and America today is good at everything that is countries lacking those qualities.States can defy the post-industrial"(145,303).The herd does not care about "herd,"but they will pay a price,usually a steep one,as forms of government as such,but it values and rewards did Thailand.Malaysia,Indonesia,and South Korea in "stability,predictability,transparency.and the ability to the 1990s.Some countries may defy the herd inadver- transfer and protect its private property."Liberal democ- tently (the countries just mentioned);others,out of ideo- racies represent the one best way.The message to all logical conviction (Cuba and North Korea);some,be- governments is clear:Conform or suffer. cause they can afford to (oil-rich countries);others, There is much in what Friedman says,and he says it because history has passed them by (many African coun- very well.But how much?And,specifically,what is the tries). effect of closer interdependence on the conduct of the Countries wishing to attract capital and to gain the internal and external affairs of nations? benefits of today's and tomorrow's technology have to First,we should ask how far globalization has pro- don the "golden straitjacket,"a package of policies in- ceeded?As everyone knows,much of the world has been cluding balanced budgets,economic deregulation,open- left aside:most of Africa and Latin America,Russia,all 694 PS December 1999 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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of the Middle East except Israel.and large parts of Asia. globalization,even within its zone,is not a statement Moreover,for many countries.the degree of participa- about the present.but a prediction about the futurc. tion in the global economy varies by region.Northern Many globalizers underestimate the extent to which Italy,for example,is in;southern Italy is out.In fact, the new looks like the old.In any competitive system the globalization is not global but is mainly limited to north- winners are imitated by the losers,or they continue to ern latitudes.Linda Weiss points out that,as of 1991, lose.In political as in 81%of the world stock of foreign direct investment was economic develop- in high-wage countries of the north:mainly the United Many globalizers un- ment,latecomers imi- States,followed by the United Kingdom,Germany,and tate the practices and Canada.She adds that the extent of concentration has derestimate the ex- adopt the institution grown by 12 points since 1967 (Weiss 1998;cf..Hirst and tent to which the of the countries who Thompson 1996,72). have shown the way. Second,we should compare the interdependence of new looks like the Occasionally,someone nations now with interdependence earlier.The first para- finds a way to out- graph of this paper suggests that in most ways we have old.In any competi- flank.to invent a new not exceeded levels reached in 1910.The rapid growth of tive system the win- way,or to ingeniously international trade and investment from the middle 1850s into the 1910s preceded a prolonged period of ners are imitated by modify an old way to gain an advantage; war,internal revolution,and national insularity.After the losers,or they and then the process World War II,protectionist policies lingered as the of imitation begins United States opened it borders to trade while taking a continue to lose. anew.That competi- relaxed attitude toward countries that protected their tors begin to look like markets during the years of recovery from war's devasta- one another if the competition is close and continuous is tion.One might say that from 1914 into the 1960s an a familiar story.Competition among states has always interdependence deficit developed,which helps to ex- led some of them to imitate others politically,militarily. plain the steady growth of interdependence thereafter. and economically:but the apostles of globalization argue Among the richest 24 industrial economies (the OECD that the process has now sped up immensely and that countries),exports grew at about twice the rate of GDP the straitjacket allows little room to wiggle.In the old after 1960.In 1960,exports were 9.5%of their GDPs;in political era.the strong vanquished the weak;in the new 1900.20.5%(Wade1996.62:cf,Weiss1998.171).Find- economic era."the fast eat the slow"(Klaus Schwab ing that 1999 approximately equals 1910 in extent of in- quoted in Friedman 1999,171).No longer is it "Do what terdependence is hardly surprising.What is true of trade the strong party says or risk physical punishment";but also holds for capital flows.again as a percentage of instead "Do what the electronic herd requires or remain GDP(Hirst and Thompson 1996.36). impoverished."But then,in a competitive system there Third.money markets may be the only economic sec- are always winners and losers.A few do exceptionally tor one can say has become truly global.Finance capital well.some get along,and many bring up the rear. moves freely across the frontiers of OECD countries and States have to conform to the ways of the more suc- quite freely elsewhere (Weiss 1998.xii).Robert Wade cessful among them or pay a stiff price for not doing so. notes that real interest rates within northern countries We then have to ask what is the state of the state?What and between northern and southern countries vary by no becomes of politics within the coils of encompassing eco- more than 5%.This seems quite large until one notices nomic processes?The message of globalizers is that eco- variations across countries of 10 to 50 times in real nomic and technological forces impose near uniformity wages,years of schooling,and numbers of working scien- of political and economic forms and functions on states tists.Still,with the movement of financial assets as with They do so because the herd is attracted only to coun- commodities,the present remains like the past.Despite tries with reliable,stable,and open governments-that today's ease of communication,financial markets at the is,to liberal democratic ones. turn of the previous century were at least as integrated Yet a glance at just the past 75 years reveals that a as they are now (Wade 1996,73-75). variety of political-economic systems have produced im- Obviously,the world is not one.Sadly,the disparities pressive results and were admired in their day for doing of the North and South remain wide.Perhaps surpris- so.In the 1930s and again in the 1950s,the Soviet ingly,among the countries that are thought of as being Union's economic growth rates were among the world's in the zone of globalization,differences are considerable highest,so impressive in the '50s that America feared and persistent.To take just one example,financial pat- being overtaken and passed by.In the 1960s President terns differ markedly across countries.The United States Kennedy got "the country moving again,"and America's depends on capital imports.Western Europe does not, radically different system gained world respect.In the and Japan is a major capital exporter.The more closely 70s,Western European welfare states with managed and one looks.the more one finds variations.That is hardly directed economics were highly regarded.In the late'70s surprising.What looks smooth,uniform,and simple from and through much of the '80s.the Japanese brand of a distance.on closer inspection proves to be pock neomercantilism was thought to be the wave of the fu- marked,variegated,and complex.Yet here,the varia- ture;and Western Europe and the United States worried tions are large enough to sustain the conclusion that about being able to keep up.Imitate or perish was the PSOnline www.apsanet.org 695 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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counsel of some;pry the Japanese economy open and has been unwilling or unable to copy institutions(Boltho make it compete on our grounds was the message of 1996).GDP per work hour among seven of the most others.America did not succeed in doing much of either. prosperous countries came close together between the Yet in the 1990s,its economy has flourished.Globalizers 1950s and the 1980s (Bover 1996.37).Countries at a offer it as the ultimate political-economic model-and so high level of development do tend to converge in pro- history again comes to an end.Yet it is odd to conclude ductivity.but that is from a decade's experience that the one best model has something of a tautol- at last appeared.Globalization,if it were realized,would What I found to be ogy. mean a near uniformity of conditions across countries. true in 1970 remains Second,even if all Even in the 1990s,one finds little evidence of globaliza- politics have become tion.The advanced countries of the world have enjoyed true today:The global,economies re- or suffered quite different fates.Major Western Euro- main local perhaps to pean countries were plagued by high and persistent un- world is less interde- a surprising extent. employment;Northeast and Southeast Asian countries pendent than is usu- Countries with large experienced economic stagnation or collapse while China economies continue to continued to do quite well:and we know about the ally supposed. do most of their busi- United States. ness at home.Ameri- Variation in the fortunes of nations underlines the cans produce 88%of the goods they buy.Sectors that point:The country that has done best,at least lately,is are scarcely involved in international trade,such as gov- the United States.Those who have fared poorly have ernment,construction,nonprofit organizations,utilities. supposedly done so because they have failed to conform and wholesale and retail trade employ 82%of Ameri- to the American Way.Globalizers do not claim that cans (Lawrence 1997,21).As Paul Krugman says."The globalization is complete,but only that it is in process United States is still almost 90%an economy that pro- and that the process is irreversible.Some evidence sup- duces goods and services for its own use"(1997.166) ports the conclusion;some does not.Looking at the big For the world's three largest economies-the United picture.one notices that nations whose economies have States,Japan,and the European Union-taken as a unit, faltered or failed have been more fully controlled,di- exports are 12%or less of GDP(Weiss 1998.176).What rected,and supported governmentally than the American I found to be true in 1970 remains true today:The world economy.Soviet-style economies failed miserably:in is less interdependent than is usually supposed (Waltz China,only the free-market sector flourishes:the once 1970).Moreover,developed countries,oil imports aside, much-favored Swedish model has proved wanting.One do the bulk of their external business with one another. can easily add more examples.From them it is tempting and that means that the extent of their dependence on to leap to the conclusion that America has indeed found. commodities that they could not produce for themselves or stumbled onto,the one best way. is further reduced. Obviously,Thomas Friedman thinks so.Tip O'Neill. Reinforcing the parochial pattern of productivity,the when he was a congressman from Massachusetts,de- famous footloose corporations in fact turn out to be clared that all politics are local.Wrong,Friedman says, firmly anchored in their home bases.One study of the all politics have become global."The electronic herd," world's 100 largest corporations concludes that not one he writes."turns the whole world into a parliamentary of them could be called truly "global"or "footloose." system,in which every government lives under the fear Another study found one multinational corporation that of a no-confidence vote from the herd"(1999,62,115). seemed to be leaving its home base:Britain's chemical I find it hard to believe that economic processes direct company.ICI(Weiss 1998,18,22:cf.,Hirst and Thomp- or determine a nation's policies,that spontaneously ar- son 1996.82-93.90,95ff.).On all the important counts- rived at decisions about where to place resources reward location of most assets,site of research and develop- or punish a national economy so strongly that a govern- ment,ownership,and management-the importance of a ment either does what pleases the "herd"or its economy corporation's home base is marked.And the technologi- fails to prosper or even risks collapse.We all recall re- cal prowess of corporations corresponds closely to that cent cases,some of them mentioned above.that seem to of the countries in which they are located. support Friedman's thesis.Mentioning them both makes Third,the "transformative capacity"of states,as Linda a point and raises doubts. Weiss emphasizes,is the key to their success in the First,within advanced countries at similar levels of world economy (Weiss 1998,xii).Because technological development that are closely interrelated,one expects innovation is rapid,and because economic conditions at uniformities of form and function to be most fully dis- home and abroad change often,states that adapt easily played.Yet Stephen Woolcock,looking at forms of cor- have considerable advantages.International politics re- porate governance within the European community,finds mains inter-national.As the title of a review by William a"spectrum of approaches"and expects it to persist for H.McNeill (1997)puts it,"Territorial States Buried Too the foreseeable future (1996,196).Since the 1950s,the Soon."Global or world politics has not taken over from economies of Germany and France have grown more national politics.The twentieth century was the century closely together as each became the principal trading of the nation-state.The twenty-first will be too.Trade partner of the other.Yet a study of the two countries and technology do not determine a single best way to concludes that France has copied German policies but organize a polity and its economy.National systems dis- 696 PS December 1999 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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play a great deal of resilience.States still have a wide really is happening.The state has lost its"monopoly range of choice.Most states survive,and the units that over internal sovereignty,"Wolfgang H.Reinecke writes. survive in competitive systems are those with the ability and as "an externally sovereign actor"it "will become a to adapt.Some do it well.and they grow and prosper. thing of the past"(1997.137:cf.,Thurow 1999).Inter- Others just manage to get along.That's the way it is in nally,the state's monopoly has never been complete.but competitive systems.In this spirit.Ezra Taft Benson. it seems more nearly so now than carlier.at least in when he was President Eisenhower's secretary of agricul- well-established states.The range of governmental func- ture,gave this kindly advice to America's small farmers: tions and the extent of state control over society and "Get big or get out."Success in competitive systems re- economy has seldom been fuller than it is now.In many quires the units of the system to adopt ways they would parts of the world the concern has been not with the prefer to avoid. state's diminished internal powers but with their in- States adapt to their environment.Some are light crease.And although state control has lessened some afoot,and others are heavy.The United States looked to what recently,does anyone believe that the United be heavy afoot in the 1980s when Japan's economy was States and Britain.for example,are back to a 1930s booming.Sometimes it seemed that MITI(Ministry of level,let alone to a nineteenth-century level of govern- International Trade and Industry)was manned by ge- mental regulation? niuses who guided Japan's economy effortlessly to its States perform essential political social-economic func- impressive accomplishments.Now it is the United States tions.and no other organization appears as a possible that appears light afoot,lighter than any other country. competitor to them.They foster the institutions that Its government is open:Accurate financial information make internal peace and prosperity possible.In the state flows freely,most economic decisions are made by pri- of nature,as Kant put it,there is "no mine and thine. vate firms.These are the characteristics that make for States turn possession into property and thus make sav- flexibility and for quick adaptation to changing condi- ing,production,and prosperity possible.The sovereign tions. state with fixed borders has proved to be the best organi- Competitive systems select for success.Over time,the zation for keeping peace and fostering the conditions for qualities that make for success vary.Students of Ameri- economic well being.'We do not have to wonder what can government point out that one of the advantages of happens to society and economy when a state begins to a federal system is that the separate states can act as fade away.We have all too many examples.A few obvi- laboratories for social-economic experimentation.When ous ones are China in the 1920s and 30s and again in some states succeed,others may imitate them.The same the 1960s and '70s.post-Soviet Russia.and many African thought applies to nations.One must wonder who the states since their independence.The less competent a next winner will be. state,the likelier it is to dissolve into component parts or States adapt;they also protect themselves.Different to be unable to adapt to transnational developments. nations,with distinct institutions and traditions.protect Challenges at home and abroad test the mettle of states themselves in different ways.Japan fosters industries. Some states fail.and other states pass the tests nicely.In defends them.and manages its trade.The United States modern times,enough states always make it to keep the uses its political,economic,and military leverage to pro- international system going as a system of states.The tect itself and manipulate international events to pro- challenges vary:states endure.They have proved to be mote its interests.Thus,as David E.Spiro elaborately hardy survivors shows.international markets and institutions did not re- Having asked how international conditions affect cycle petrodollars after states.I now reverse the question and ask how states 1974.The United affect the conduct of international political affairs. States did.Despite Because technologi- many statements to the contrary.the United cal innovation is The State in International Politics States worked effec- rapid,and because tively through different Economic globalization would mean tht the world administrations and economic conditions economy.or at least the globalized portion of it,would under different cabinet be integrated and not merely interdependent.The differ- at home and abroad secretaries to under- ence between an interdependent and an integrated world mine markets and change often,states is a qualitative one and not a mere matter of proportion- thwart international ately more trade and a greater and more rapid flow of institutions.Its lever- that adapt easily capital.With integration,the world would look like one age enabled it to ma- have considerable big state.Economic markets and economic interests can- nipulate the oil crisis not perform the functions of government.Integration to serve its own inter- advantages requires or presumes a government to protect,direct. ests (1999,chap.6). and control.Interdependence,in contrast to integration. Many of the interde- is"the mere mutualism"of states.as Emile Durkheim penders of the 1970s expected the state to wither and put it.It is not only less close than usually thought but fade away.Charles Kindleberger wrote in 1969 that"the also politically less consequential.Interdependence did nation-state is just about through as an economic unit' not produce the world-shaking events of 1989-91.A po- (207).Globalizers of the 1990s believe that this time it litical event.the failure of one of the world's two great PSOnline www.apsanet.org 697 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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powers,did that.Had the configuration of international terms.Many small states import and export large shares politics not fundamentally changed,neither the unifica- of their gross domestic products.States with large GDPs tion of Germany nor the war against Saddam Hussein do not.They are little dependent on others,while a would have been possible.The most important events in number of other states heavily depend on them.The international politics are explained by differences in the terms of political.economic.and military competition capabilities of states.not by economic forces operating are set by the larger units of the international-political across states or transcending them.Interdependers,and system.Through cen- globalizers even more so.argue that the international turies of multipolarity. economic interests of states work against their going to In real terms,Ameri- with five or so great war.True,they do.Yet if one asks whether cconomic ca's 1995 military powers of comparable interests or nuclear weapons inhibit war more strongly, size competing with the answer obviously is nuclear weapons.European great budget approxi- one another.the inter- powers prior to World War I were tightly tied together mately equaled the national system was economically.They nevertheless fought a long and quite closely interde bloody war.The United States and the Soviet Union 1980 budget,and in pendent.Under bi- were not even loosely connected economically.They co- 1980 the Cold War and unipolarity the existed peacefully through the four-and-a-half decades of degree of interdepen- the Cold War.The most important causes of peace.as of reached its peak. dence declined mark- war,are found in international-political conditions,in- edlv. cluding the weaponry available to states.Events follow- States are differentiated from one another not hy func ing the Cold War dramatically demonstrate the political tion but primarily by capability.For two reasons,ine- weakness of economic forces.The integration (not just qualities across states have greater political impact than the interdependence)of the parts of the Soviet Union inequalities across income groups within states.First.the and of Yugoslavia,with all of their entangling economic inequalities of states are larger and have been growing interests,did not prevent their disintegration.Govern- more rapidly.Rich countries have become richer while ments and people sacrifice welfare and even security to poor countries have remained poor.Second,in a system nationalism,ethnicity,and religion. without central governance.the influence of the units of Political explanations weigh heavily in accounting for greater capability is disproportionately large because international-political events.National politics,not inter- there are no effective laws and institutions to direct and national markets,account for many international eco- constrain them.They are able to work the system to nomic developments.A number of students of politics their advantage,as the petrodollar example showed.I and of economics believe that blocs are becoming more argued in 1970 that what counts are states'capacity to common internationally.Economic interests and market adjust to external conditions and their ability to use their forces do not create blocs:governments do.Without economic leverage for political advantage.The United governmental decisions,the Coal and Steel Community. States was then and is still doubly blessed.It remains the European Economic Community,and the European highly important in the international economy,serving as Union would not have emerged.The representatives of a principal market for a number of countries and as a states negotiate regulations in the European Commis- major supplier of goods and services,yet its dependence sion.The Single-Market Act of 1985 provided that some on others is quite low.Precisely because the United types of directives would require less than a unanimous States is relatively little dependent on others.it has a vote in the Council of Ministers.This political act wide range of policy choices and the ability both to bring cleared the way for passage of most of the harmoniza- pressure on others and to assist them.The "herd"with tion standards for Europe (Dumez and Jeunemaitre its capital may Hee from countries when it collectively 1996.229).American governments forged NAFTA;Ja- decides that they are politically and economically unwor- pan fashioned an East and Southeast Asian producing thy,but some countries abroad.like some firms at home, and trading area.The decisions and acts of a country,or are so important that they cannot be allowed to fail.Na- a set of countries arriving at political agreements,shape tional governments and international agencies then come international political and cconomic institutions.Govern- to the rescue.The United States is the country that most ments now intervene much more in international eco- often has the ability and the will to step in.The agency nomic matters than they did in the carlier era of interde- that most often acts is the IMF,and most countries pendence.Before World War I.foreign-ministry officials think of the IMF as the enforcement arm of the U.S. were famed for their lack of knowledge of.or interest in, Treasury (Strange 1996.192).Thomas Friedman believes economic affairs.Because governments have hecome that when the "herd"makes its decisions,there is no much more active in economic affairs at home and appeal;but often there is an appeal,and it is for a bail abroad.interdependence has become less of an autono- out organized by the United States. mous force in international politics. The international economy,like national economies. The many commentators who exaggerate the closeness operates within a set of rules and institutions.Rules and of interdependence,and even more so those who write institutions have to be made and sustained.Britain.to a of globalization,think in unit rather than in systemic large extent,provided this service prior to World War I; 698 PS December 1999 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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no one did between the wars.and the United States has capabilities continues to be the key to understanding in- done so since.More than any other state.the United ternational politics. States makes the rules and maintains the institutions that To an increasing extent,American foreign policy relies shape the international political economy. on military means.America continues to garrison much Economically.the United States is the world's most of the world and to look for ways of keeping troops in important country:militarily,it is not only the most im- foreign countries rather than ways to withdraw them as portant country,it is the decisive one.Thomas Friedman one might have expected at the Cold War's end.-The puts the point simply:The world is sustained by"the 1992 draft of the Pentagon's Defense Planning Guidance advocated "discouraging the advanced industrialized na- presence of American power and America's willingness tions from. .even aspiring to a larger global or re- to use that power against those who would threaten the gional role."The United States may at times want help system of globalization....The hidden hand of the mar- from others.but not too much help lest it lose its leading ket will never work without a hidden fist"(1999.373). position in one part of the world or another.The docu- But the hidden fist is in full view.On its military forces, ment,when it was leaked,provoked criticism.In re- the United States outspends the next six or seven hig sponse,emphasis was placed on its being only a draft, spenders combined.When force is needed to keep or to but it continues to guide and describe America's policy restore the peace.either the United States leads the way William J.Perry and Ashton B.Carter,respectively or the peace is not kept.The Cold War militarized inter- the former secretary and assistant secretary of defense, have recently offered the concept of "preventive de- national politics.Relations between the United States fense"as a guide to American policy.Preventive defense and the Soviet Union.and among some other countries is conducted by American defense officials engaging in as well.came to be defined largely in a single dimension. "security and military dialogue with regional states";it the military one.As the German sociologist Erich calls for "a more robust defense to defense program" Weede has remarked."National security decision making (1999.9.11:cf..Carter.Perry,and Steinbruner 1992) in some...democracies (most notably in West Ger- Bismarck tried to keep Germany's military officials away many)is actually penetrated by the United States"(1989, from their opposite numbers in foreign countries lest the 225). military's military policy become the country's foreign Oddly,the end of the Cold War has raised the impor- policy.In part.World War I resulted from his succes- tance of the American military to new heights.The sors'failure to do this.In the United States,Treasury United States continues to spend at a Cold War pace.In and Defense now make as much or more foreign policy than State does. real terms.America's 1995 military budget approximately equaled the 1980 budget,and in 1980 the Cold War reached its peak.That other countries have reduced Conclusion their budgets more than the United States has height- ened the military dominance of one country.To say that In a system of balanced states,the domination of one the world is unipolar and that the world is becoming one or some of them is prevented by the reaction of others through globalization is all too suggestive.Some say that acting as counterweights.The states of Europe held each the world is not really unipolar because the United other in balance through the first 300 years of the mod- States often needs,or at least wants,the help of others ern state system.In the next 50 years,the United States (see.e.g..Huntington 1999:Nye 1999).The truth.how- and the Soviet Union balanced each other,each protect- ever,remains:The stronger have many more ways of ing its sphere and helping to manage affairs within it. coping with adversities than the weak have,and the lat- Since the end of the Cold War.the United States has ter depend on the former much more than the other wav been alone in the world;no state or combination of around.The United States is the only country that can states provides an effective counterweight. organize and lead a military coalition,as it did in Iraq What are the implications for international politics? The more interdependent the system,the more a surro- and in the Balkans.Some states have little choice but to gate for government is needed.Who can supply it?Some participate.partly because of the pressure the strong can Americans helieve that the United States benignly pro- bring to bear on the weak and partly because of the vides a necessary minimum of management of the system needs of the latter.Western European countries and Ja- and that,because of its moderation,other states will pan are more dependent on Middle Eastern oil than the continue to appreciate,or at least to accept,its services United States,and Western European countries are (see.e.g..Ikenbery 1998/99,77-78).Benign hegemony is more affected by what happens in Eastern Europe than however,something of a contradiction in terms."One the United States is. reads about the world's desire for American leadership As expected,the beneficiaries resent their benefactor. only in the United States,"a British diplomat has re- marked."Everywhere else one reads about American which leads to talk of righting the imbalance of power. arrogance and unilateralism"(quoted in Huntington Yet,when the imbalance between one and the rest is 1999.42. great.to catch up is difficult.French leaders.especially, McGeorge Bundy once described the United States as bemoan the absence of multipolarity and call for greater "the locomotive at the head of mankind,and the rest of European strength,but one cannot usefully will the end the world the caboose"(quoted in Gardner 1995,178). without willing the means.The uneven distribution of America's pulling power is at a peak that cannot be sus- PSOnline www.apsanet.org 699 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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tained,for two main reasons.First,America is a country may hope,the militarization of international affairs will of 276 million people in a world of six billion.It repre- diminish with time. sents 4.6%of the world's total population.The country's Many globalizers believe that the world is increasingly physical capabilities and political will cannot sustain ruled by markets.Looking at the state among states present world burdens indefinitely.Second.other coun- leads to a different conclusion.The main difference be- tries may not enjoy being placed at the back of the train. tween international politics now and earlier is not found Both friends and foes will react as countries always have in the increased interdependence of states but in their growing inequality.With the end of bipolarity.the distri- to the threatened or real predominance of one from bution of capabilities across states has become extremely among them by working to right the balance (Waltz lopsided.Rather than elevating economic forces and de- 1998).The present condition of international politics is pressing political ones.the inequalities of international unnatural.Both the predominance of America and,one politics enhance the political role of one country.Poli- tics,as usual.prevails over cconomics. Notes 1.The picture of the purpose and the performance of states is espe- 2.For example.Hans Binnendijk has urged Americans to develop a cially clear in Thomson and Krasner (1989). case for leaving American troops in South Korea even if the North should no longer he a threat (1996.2). References Angell,Norman,1933.The Grear lision.New York:G.P.Putnam's Binge."In I7e New Shape of Politics.New York:W.W.Norton and 30ns. Foreign Afuirs. Binnendiik.Hans A.1996.Strategic Assessment 1996:Insinments of Mueller.John 1989.Reireut from Doomsduy:The Ohsolescence of Mujor U.S.Power.Washington.DC:National Defense University Press War.New York:Basic Books. Boltho.Andrea.1996."Has France Converged on Germany?"In Na- McNeill.William H.1997."Territorial States Buried Too Soon." tional Diversin and Global Capitalism.ed.Suzanne Berger and Ro- Mershon Internutional Stulies Review. nald Dore.Ithaca:Cornell University Press. Nye,Joseph Jr.1990."Redetining the National Interest."Foreign A4f Bover.Robert.1996."The Convergence Hypothesis Revisited:Global fairs 78(Julv/August). ization But Still the Century of Nations."In National Diversin and Ohmae.Kenichi.1990.The Borderless Worki:Power and Strategy in the Global Capitalism.ed.Suzanne Berger and Ronald Dore.Ithaca: Interlinked Econony.New York:HarperBusiness. Cornell University Press Reinecke.Wolfgang H.1997."Global Public Policv."Foreign Afuirs Carter.Ashton B..and William J.Perrv.1999.Prerentive Defense:4 76(Novemher/Decemher). New Securin Strategy for America.Washington,DC:The Brookings Spiro,David E.1999.The Hidden Hand ofAmerican Hegemony:Petro Institution. doflar Recveling und fnternationul Markeis.Ithaca:Cornell University -and John D.Steinbruner.1992.A New Concept of Cooperatire Se- Press. curity.Washington.DC:The Brookings Institution. Strange.Susan.1990.The Retreat of the Stute:The Difusion of Power in Dovle.Michael W.1997.Ways of War and Peuce:Realism.Liberalism the World Econonn.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press. and Socialisnt.New York:W.W.Norton Thomson.Janice E..and Stephen D.Krasner.1989."Global Transac- Dumez.Herve.and Alain Jeunemaitre.1996."The Convergence of tions and the Consolidation of Sovereignty."In Global Changes and Competition Policies in Europe:Internal Dynamics and External Theoretical Challenges:Approuches to Word Politics for the 1990s.ed Imposition."In National Diversity and Global Capitalism.ed.Su- Ernst-Otto Czempicl and James N.Rosenau.Lexington.MA:Lex- zanne Berger and Ronald Dore.Ithaca:Cornell University Press. ington Books. Fukuvama.Francis.1992.The End of History and the Last Man.New Thurow.Lester C.1909.Buikling Wealth:The New Rules for Individuals Companies.and Natons in u Knowledge-Bused Econony.New York: York:Free Press. 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Governance in the European Community:The Case of Britain."In eign Affairs. National Drversin wnf Globul Cupitalism.ed.Suzanne Berger and Lawrence.Rohert Z.1997."Workers and Economists II:Resist the Ronald Dore.Ithaca:Cornell University Press 700 PS December 1999 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.Further reproduction prohibited without permission
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