上海交通大学试卷（A卷) (2010至2011学年第1学期) 班级号 学号 姓名 课程名称Production and Operations Analysis 成绩 1.A simple forecasting method for weekly sales of DVD derives used by a local computer dealer is to form the average of the two most recent sales figures.Suppose sales for the drives for the past 7 weeks were Week 1 2 3456 7 Sales8675728313265110 a. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts made for periods 3 through 7 using this method. b.Determine the forecast errors for these periods c.Compute the MAD,the MSE,and the MAPE based on the forecast errors computed in part(b). 2.A specialty coffeehouse sells Colombian coffee at a fairly steady rate of 280 pounds annually The beans are purchased from a local supplier for $2.40 per pound.The coffeehouse estimates that it costs $45 in paperwork and labor to place an order for the coffee,and holding costs are based on a 20 percent annual interest rate. a. Determine the optimal order quantity for Colombian coffee b.What is the time between placements of orders? c. What is the average annual cost of holding and setup due to this item? d.If replenishment lead time is three weeks,determine the reorder level based on the on-hand inventory 3. Billy's Bakery bakes fresh bagels each morning.The daily demand for bagels is a random variable with a distribution estimated from prior experience given by Number of Bagels 0 5 10 1520 30 35 Sold in One Day 25 Probability .05.10.10.20.25.15 .10 .05 The bagels cost Billy's 8 cents to make,and they are sold for 35 cents each.Bagels unsold at the end of the day are purchased by a nearby charity soup kitchen for 3 cents each. a. Based on the given discrete distribution,how many bagels should Billy's bake at the start of each day?(Your answer should be a multiple of 5.) b.If you were to approximate the discrete distribution with a normal distribution,would you expect the resulting solution to be close to the answer that you obtained in part(a)?Why or why not? C. Determine the optimal number of bagels to bake each day using a normal approximation.(Hint: You must compute the mean and the variance o2 of the demand from the given discrete distribution.) A卷总2页第页
A 卷 总 2 页 第 页 上 海 交 通 大 学 试 卷（ A 卷） （ 2010 至 2011 学年 第 1 学期 ） 班级号____________ 学号 ______________________ 姓名 __ 课程名称 Production and Operations Analysis 成绩 ___ 1. A simple forecasting method for weekly sales of DVD derives used by a local computer dealer is to form the average of the two most recent sales figures. Suppose sales for the drives for the past 7 weeks were Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sales 86 75 72 83 132 65 110 a. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts made for periods 3 through 7 using this method. b. Determine the forecast errors for these periods c. Compute the MAD, the MSE, and the MAPE based on the forecast errors computed in part (b). 2. A specialty coffeehouse sells Colombian coffee at a fairly steady rate of 280 pounds annually. The beans are purchased from a local supplier for $2.40 per pound. The coffeehouse estimates that it costs $45 in paperwork and labor to place an order for the coffee, and holding costs are based on a 20 percent annual interest rate. a. Determine the optimal order quantity for Colombian coffee. b. What is the time between placements of orders? c. What is the average annual cost of holding and setup due to this item? d. If replenishment lead time is three weeks, determine the reorder level based on the on-hand inventory. 3. Billy’s Bakery bakes fresh bagels each morning. The daily demand for bagels is a random variable with a distribution estimated from prior experience given by Number of Bagels Sold in One Day 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Probability .05 .10 .10 .20 .25 .15 .10 .05 The bagels cost Billy’s 8 cents to make, and they are sold for 35 cents each. Bagels unsold at the end of the day are purchased by a nearby charity soup kitchen for 3 cents each. a. Based on the given discrete distribution, how many bagels should Billy’s bake at the start of each day? (Your answer should be a multiple of 5.) b. If you were to approximate the discrete distribution with a normal distribution, would you expect the resulting solution to be close to the answer that you obtained in part (a)? Why or why not? c. Determine the optimal number of bagels to bake each day using a normal approximation. (Hint: You must compute the mean and the variance 2 of the demand from the given discrete distribution.)
4.Mr.Meadows Cookie Company makes a variety of chocolate chip cookie in the plant in Albion, Michigan.Based on orders received and forecasts of buying habits,it is estimated that the demand for the next four months is 850,1260,510,and 980,expressed in thousands of cookies. During a 46-day period when there were 120 workers,the company produced 1.7 million cookies.Assume that the number of workdays over the four months are respectively 26,24,20, and 16.There are currently 100 workers employed,and there is no starting inventory of cookies. a.What is the minimum constant workforce required to meet demand over the next four months? b.Assume that ci=10 cents per cookie per month,cH=$100,and cF=$200.Evaluate the cost of the plan derived in part(a). 5. Consider the product structure diagram given in Fig.1,Assume that the MPS for the end item for week 10 through 17 is Week 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Net requirements 100 100 40 40 100 200 200 200 Assume that lot-for-lot scheduling is used throughout.Also assume that there is no entering inventory in period 10 and no scheduled receipts. a. Determine the planned order release for component A b. Determine the planned order release for component C. End item A(2) B(1) 1week 2weeks C(1) D(2) C(2) E(3) 2 weeks 1week 2 weeks 2 weeks 6. Seven jobs are to be processed through a single machine.The processing times and due dates are given here Job 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Processing time 3 6 8 4 1 7 Promised time 4 8 12 15 11 25 21 Determine the sequence of the jobs in order to minisize a.Mean flow time. b. Number of tardy jobs. c. Maximum lateness. d.What is the makespan for anv sequence? 3 6 我承诺，我将严 题号 格遵守考试纪律。 得分 承诺人： 批阅人（流水阅 卷教师签名处) A卷总2页第页
A 卷 总 2 页 第 页 4． Mr. Meadows Cookie Company makes a variety of chocolate chip cookie in the plant in Albion, Michigan. Based on orders received and forecasts of buying habits, it is estimated that the demand for the next four months is 850, 1260, 510, and 980, expressed in thousands of cookies. During a 46-day period when there were 120 workers, the company produced 1.7 million cookies. Assume that the number of workdays over the four months are respectively 26, 24, 20, and 16. There are currently 100 workers employed, and there is no starting inventory of cookies. a. What is the minimum constant workforce required to meet demand over the next four months? b. Assume that cI =10 cents per cookie per month, cH =＄100, and cF =＄200. Evaluate the cost of the plan derived in part (a). 5． Consider the product structure diagram given in Fig. 1, Assume that the MPS for the end item for week 10 through 17 is Week 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Net requirements 100 100 40 40 100 200 200 200 Assume that lot-for-lot scheduling is used throughout. Also assume that there is no entering inventory in period 10 and no scheduled receipts. a. Determine the planned order release for component A. b. Determine the planned order release for component C. 6． Seven jobs are to be processed through a single machine. The processing times and due dates are given here Job 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Processing time 3 6 8 4 2 1 7 Promised time 4 8 12 15 11 25 21 Determine the sequence of the jobs in order to minisize a. Mean flow time. b. Number of tardy jobs. c. Maximum lateness. d. What is the makespan for any sequence? 题号 1 2 3 4 5 6 得分 批阅人(流水阅 卷教师签名处) 我承诺，我将严 格遵守考试纪律。 承诺人：