Maurice Kendall, The analysis of economic time series part I: Prices Journal of the Royal statistical society 96, 1953 He could identify no predictable patterns in stock prices
Maurice Kendall, The analysis of economic time series, Part I: Prices, Journal of the Royal statistical society 96, 1953. – He could identify no predictable patterns in stock prices
1. Why are not stock prices predictable? 例子:假设存在一个准确的模型,预测 股票价格三天后将从20元/服涨至23元/股 所有知道该模型的投资者 不知道该模型的投资者
1. Why are not stock prices predictable? 例子:假设存在一个准确的模型,预测 股票价格三天后将从20元/股涨至23元/股 – 所有知道该模型的投资者 – 不知道该模型的投资者
The forecast of a future price increase will lead instead to an immediate price increase the stock price will immediately reflect the good news implicit in the models forecast
The forecast of a future price increase will lead instead to an immediate price increase the stock price will immediately reflect the good news implicit in the model’s forecast
这样的准确模型是不存在的。 This simple example illustrate why our attempt to find recurrent patterns in stock price movements was doomed to failure a forecast about favorable future performance leads instead to favorable current performance as market participants all try to get in on the action before the price jump
这样的准确模型是不存在的。 – This simple example illustrate why our attempt to find recurrent patterns in stock price movements was doomed to failure. – A forecast about favorable future performance leads instead to favorable current performance, as market participants all try to get in on the action before the price jump
由于存在聪明的投资者的原因,任何能 够用来对股票价格作预测的信息已经反 映在股票的价格中。 所有投资者只能获得“正常”的回报率
由于存在聪明的投资者的原因,任何能 够用来对股票价格作预测的信息已经反 映在股票的价格中。 所有投资者只能获得“正常”的回报率
例子:2001年10月21日晚,证监会宣布 暂停国有股减持 例子:2002年4月5日宣布,从5月1日起 交易佣金使用0.3%上限向下浮动制
例子:2001年10月21日晚,证监会宣布 暂停国有股减持 例子:2002年4月5日宣布,从5月1日起 交易佣金使用0.3%上限向下浮动制