Globalization and American Power Kenneth N.Waltz SSOCIATING interdepen- cies,and more recently Michael Doyle dence with democracy,peace projected that this would happen some- and prosperity is nothing new. time between 2050 and 2100.1 Before World War I,the close interde- Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye,in pendence of states was thought of as their 1977 book Power and Interdependence, heralding an era of peace among nations, strengthened the notion that interdepen- and democracy and prosperity within dence promotes peace by arguing that them.In his widely read book,The Great simple interdependence had become Illusion,Norman Angell summed up the complex interdependence,binding the texts of generations of classical and neo- economic and hence the political interests classical economists and drew from them of states ever more tightly together.Now the dramatic conclusion that wars would we hear from many sides that interdepen- no longer be fought because they would dence has reached yet another height, not pay.World War I instead produced transcending states and establishing a the great disillusion,which reduced polit- Borderless World,the title and theme of ical optimism to a level that remained low Kenichi Ohmae's 1990 book.People, almost until the end of the Cold War- firms and markets matter more;states “almost'”,because beginning in the 1970s matter less.Each tightening of the eco- a new optimism,strikingly similar to the nomic screw raises the benefits of eco- old,began to resurface.Interdependence nomic exchange and makes war among was again associated with peace,and the more advanced states increasingly increasingly with democracy,which began costly.The simple and plausible proposi- to spread wonderfully to Latin America, tions are that as the benefits of peace rise, to Asia and,with the Soviet Union's col-so do the costs of war;when states per- lapse,to Eastern Europe.In 1989 Francis ceive wars to be immensely costly,they Fukuyama foresaw in these pages a time will be disinclined to fight them.Still,war when all states would be liberal democra- is not abolished,because even the strongest economic forces cannot con- Kenneth N.Waltz,former Ford Professor of quer fear or eliminate concern for nation- Political Science at the University of al honor.Generally,however,economic California,Berkeley,is a research associate of interests dominate and markets begin to the Institute of War and Peace Studies and adjunct professor at Columbia University.An Doyle,Ways of War and Peace:Realism,Liberalism, earlier version of this essay was published in the and Socialism (New York:W.W.Norton, December issue of PS:Political Science Politics. 1997),pp.480-1. 46 The National Interest-Spring 2000. Copyright @2000.All rights reserved
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supplant politics at home and abroad. made;they happen,and they happen That economics depresses politics and because many individual investors make limits its significance is taken to be a simultaneous decisions on similar happy thought. grounds to invest or to withdraw their funds.Globalization is a process shaped The State of the State by markets,not by governments. Globalization means homogenization. LOBALIZATION is the fad Prices,products,wages,wealth,rates of of the 1990s,and globaliza- interest and profit tend to converge the tion is made in America. world over.Like any powerful movement Thomas Friedman's The Lexus and tbe for change,globalization encounters Olive Tree(1999)is perhaps the most exul- resistance-in America from religious tant celebration of the American way,of fundamentalists,labor unions and their market capitalism and liberal democracy. allies;abroad from anti-Americanists; Free markets,transparency and flexibility everywhere from cultural traditionalists. are the watchwords.The "electronic The "end of the Cold War and the col- herd"moves vast amounts of capital in lapse of communism have discredited all and out of countries according to their models other than liberal democracy." political and economic merits.Capital The statement is by democratic theorist moves almost instantaneously into coun- Larry Diamond,and Friedman repeats it tries with stable governments,progressive with approval.There is but one best way, economies,open accounting and honest and America has found it.As Friedman dealing,and out of countries lacking puts it,"It's a post-industrial world,and those qualities.States can defy the“herd”, America today is good at everything that but they will pay a price,usually a steep is post-industrial."The herd does not one,as did Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia care about forms of government as such, and South Korea in the late 1990s.Some but it values and rewards "stability,pre- countries may defy the herd inadvertently dictability,transparency,and the ability to (the countries just mentioned);others out transfer and protect its private property." of ideological conviction(Cuba and The message to all governments is clear: North Korea);some because they can conform or suffer. afford to (oil-rich countries);others There is much in what Friedman says, because history has simply passed them by and he says it very well.But how much? (many African countries). And,specifically,what is the effect of clos- Countries wishing to attract capital er interdependence on the conduct of the and to gain the benefits of today's and internal and external affairs of nations? tomorrow's technology must don the First,we should ask how far global- “golden straitjacket'”,a package of poli- ization has proceeded.In fact,much of cies including balanced budgets,econom- the world has been left out of the process: ic deregulation,openness to investment most of Africa and Latin America,Russia and trade,and a stable currency.The all of the Middle East (except Israel),and herd decides which countries to reward large parts of Asia.Moreover,for many and which to punish,and nothing can be countries the degree of participation in done about its decisions.The herd has no the global economy varies by region telephone number.When it decides to Northern Italy,for example,is in;south- withdraw capital from a country,there is ern Italy is out.Globalization is not truly no one to complain to or petition for global,but is mainly limited to northern relief.Decisions of the herd are not latitudes.Linda Weiss points out that,as Globalization and American Power. 47 Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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of 1991,81 percent of the world stock of ners are imitated by the losers.In politi- foreign direct investment was located in cal as in economic development,late- high-wage northern countries:the comers imitate the practices and adopt United States,followed by the United the institutions of the countries that have Kingdom,Germany and Canada.She shown the way.Occasionally,someone adds that the concentration of investment finds a way to outflank,to invent a new in these countries has increased by 12 way or to ingeniously modify an old way percent since 1967.2 Obviously,the world to gain an advantage;and then the is not one. process of imitation begins anew.That Second,we should compare the inter- competitors begin to look like one dependence of nations today with inter- another if the competition is close and dependence earlier.The rapid growth of continuous is a familiar story.But the international trade and investment from apostles of globalization argue that the the mid-1850s into the 1910s preceded a process has now sped up immensely.In prolonged period of war,internal revolu- the old political era,the strong van- tion and national insularity.During the quished the weak;in the new economic years of post-World War II recovery,pro- era,says Friedman,quoting Klaus tectionist policies lingered as the United Schwab,“the fast eat the slow.”No States opened its borders to trade while longer is it"do what the strong party says taking a relaxed attitude toward countries or risk physical punishment'”,but“do that protected their markets.One might what the electronic herd requires or say that from 1914 into the 1960s an remain impoverished."In a competitive interdependence deficit developed,which system,a few do exceptionally well,some helps to explain the steady growth of get along,and many bring up the rear. interdependence thereafter.Among the If states must conform to the ways of richest twenty-four industrial economies the more successful among them or pay a (the OECD countries),exports grew at stiff price for not doing so,we then have about twice the rate of GDP after 1960.In to ask what becomes of the state itself. 1960 exports accounted for 9.5 percent of The message of globalizers is that eco- their national GDPs;in 1900 that figure nomic and technological forces impose on was 20.5 percent.3 Finding that the level states a near uniformity of political and of interdependence in 1999 approximately economic forms and functions.A glance equals that of 1910 is hardly surprising. at just the past seventy-five years,howev- What is true of trade also holds for capital er,reveals that a variety of political and flows,again as a percentage of GDP. economic systems have produced impres- Third,money markets may be the sive results and have been admired in only economic sector that has become their day for doing so. truly global.Finance capital moves freely across the frontiers of OECD countries 2Weiss,The Myth of the Powerless State:Governing and quite freely elsewhere.Still,with the the Economy in a Global Era (Cambridge,UK: movement of financial assets as with com- Polity Press,1998),p.186. modities,the present remains like the 3Robert Wade,"Globalization and its Limits: past.Despite today's ease of communica- Reports of the Death of the National tion,financial markets in 1900 were at Economy are Grossly Exaggerated",in least as integrated as they are now. National Diversity and Global Capitalism,ed. Yet many globalizers underestimate Suzanne Berger and Ronald Dore (Ithaca, the extent to which the new resembles the NY:Cornell University Press,1996),p.62 old.In any competitive system the win- Cf.Weiss,Mytb,Table 6-1. The National Interest-Spring 2000. Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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In the 1930s and again in the 1950s, has proved wanting,and the economies the Soviet Union's economic growth of the European Union suffer from high rates were among the world's highest,so unemployment and low growth.One can impressive in the 1950s that America easily add more examples.From these it feared being overtaken and passed by.In is tempting to leap to the conclusion that the 1970s,West European welfare states America has indeed found,or stumbled with managed and directed economies onto,the one best way. were highly regarded.In the late 1970s Obviously,Thomas Friedman thinks through the 1980s,the Japanese brand of so.Tip O'Neill,when he was a congress- neomercantilism was thought to be the man from Massachusetts,declared that wave of the future,and Western Europe all politics are local.Wrong,Friedman and the United States worried about now says,all politics have become global. being able to keep up.Imitate or perish "The electronic herd",he writes,"turns was the counsel of some;pry the the whole world into a parliamentary sys- Japanese economy open and make it tem,in which every government lives compete on our grounds was the mes- under the fear of a no-confidence vote sage of others.America did not do much from the herd.” of either,yet in the 1990s its economy, too,has flourished. UT IT IS hard to believe that Yet it is odd-and intellectually reck- economic processes direct or less-to conclude from a decade's experi- determine a nation's policies, ence that the one best model has at last that spontaneous individual decisions appeared.True globalization,if it were about where to place resources reward or realized,would mean a near uniformity of punish a national economy so strongly conditions across countries.But even in that a government either does what pleas- the 1990s,one finds little evidence of this. es the“herd”or its economy fails to pros- The advanced countries of the world have per or even risks collapse.We all recall enjoyed or suffered distinct fates.Major recent cases,some of them mentioned West European countries were plagued above,that seem to support Friedman's by high and persistent unemployment; thesis.Mentioning them both makes a many Northeast and Southeast Asian point and raises doubts. countries experienced economic stagna- For one thing,even if all politics has tion or collapse,while China continued to become global,economies remain local do quite well;and we know about the to a surprising extent.Countries with United States. large economies continue to do most of Globalizers,to be sure,do not claim their business at home.Sectors of the that globalization is complete,only that American economy that are scarcely the process is irreversible.Some evi- involved in international trade-such as dence supports the conclusion,some government,construction,nonprofit does not.Looking at the big picture, organizations,utilities,and wholesale one notices that nations whose and retail trade-employ 82 percent of economies have faltered or failed have Americans.4 As Paul Krugman observes, been more fully controlled,directed and "The United States is still almost 90 per- supported by the state than has the cent an economy that produces goods American economy.Soviet-style economies failed miserably,in China 4 Robert Z.Lawrence,“Workers and EconomistsⅡ： only the free-market sector flourishes, Resist the Binge",Foreign Affairs (March/April the once much-favored Swedish model 1994). Globalization and American Power 49 Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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and services for its own use."For the and France have grown more closely world's three largest economies-the together as each became the principal United States,Japan,and the European trading partner of the other.But a study Union taken as a unit-exports account of the two countries concludes that for 12 percent or less of GDP.5 The France has copied German policies yet world,then,is less interdependent than has been unwilling or unable to copy is usually supposed.Moreover,developed German institutions.8 countries,oil imports aside,do the bulk of their external business with one HE MOST telling refuta- another,which means that their depen- tion of the belief that state dence on imported commodities that power has sharply declined is they could not easily produce themselves to be found in the state's capacity for is further reduced. transformation.Because technological Reinforcing the parochial pattern of innovation is rapid,and because eco- productivity,the famous footloose corpo- nomic conditions at home and abroad rations also turn out to be firmly change often,states that adapt easily to anchored in their home bases.A study of such changes enjoy considerable advan- the world's one hundred largest corpora- tages.International politics remains tions concludes that not one of them inter-national.National systems display a could be called truly“global'”or“foot- great deal of resilience.Those that adapt loose."Another study found exactly one well grow and prosper;others just man- multinational corporation that seemed to age to get along.In this spirit,Ezra Taft be leaving its home base:Britain's chemi- Benson,when he was President cal company,ICI.On all the important Eisenhower's secretary of agriculture, counts-location of assets,site of research gave this kindly advice to America's small and development,ownership,manage- farmers:“Get big or get out..” ment-the importance of a corporation's Success in competitive systems home base is marked.And the technologi- requires the units of the system to adopt cal prowess of corporations corresponds ways they would often prefer to avoid. closely to that of the countries in which The United States looked to be heavy- they are located. footed in the 1980s when Japan's econo- Again,within advanced countries at my was booming.It seemed that the similar levels of development that are Ministry of International Trade and closely interrelated,one would expect Industry was manned by geniuses who uniformities of form and function to be guided Japan's economy effortlessly to its most fully displayed.Indeed,GDP per impressive accomplishments.Now it is work hour among seven of the most pros- the United States that appears light-footed. perous countries nearly came into align- ment between the 1950s and the 1980s.6 5Weiss,Mytb,p.176. Yet,while countries at a high level of 6Robert Boyer,"The Convergence Hypothesis development do tend to converge in pro- Revisited:Globalization but Still the Century ductivity,that is something of a tautology. of Nations",in National Diversity,p.37. Stephen Woolcock,looking at forms of 7Woolcock,"Competition among Forms of corporate governance within the Corporate Governance in the European European Union,finds a "spectrum of Community:The Case of Britain",in National approaches"and expects it to persist for Diei西y,卫.196. the foreseeable future.7 Since the 1950s, 8Andrea Boltho,"Has France Converged on for example,the economies of Germany Germany?",in National Diversity,chap.3. 50 The National Interest-Spring 2000. Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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Students of American government point world the concern has been not over the out that one of the advantages of a federal diminished internal powers of the state system is that the separate states can act as but over their increase.And although laboratories for socioeconomic experi- state control has lessened somewhat mentation.When some states succeed, recently,does anyone really believe that others imitate them.The same thought economically advanced states have applies to nations. returned to a 1930s level-let alone to a States adapt,but they also protect nineteenth-century level-of govern- themselves.Different nations,with dis- mental regulation? tinct institutions and traditions,protect States perform essential political, themselves in different ways.Japan fos- social and economic functions,and no ters industries,defends them,and man- other organization rivals them in these ages its trade.The United States uses its respects.They foster the institutions that political,economic and military leverage make internal peace and prosperity pos- to manipulate international events to pro- sible.In the state of nature,as Kant put mote its interests.Thus,as David E. it,there is“no mine and thine.”States Spiro elaborately shows,international turn possession into property and thus markets and institutions did not recycle make saving,production and prosperity petrodollars after 1974;the United States possible.The sovereign state with fixed did.Despite many statements to the con- borders has proved to be the best organi- trary,the United States worked effective- zation for keeping peace internally and ly through different administrations and fostering the conditions for economic under different cabinet secretaries to well-being. undermine markets and thwart interna- We do not have to wonder what hap- tional institutions.Its leverage enabled it pens to society and the economy when a to manipulate the oil crisis to serve its state begins to fade away,for we have all own interests.9 too many examples.A few obvious ones Many of the interdependence boost- are China in the 1920s and 1930s and ers of the 1970s expected the state to again during the Cultural Revolution, wither and fade away.Charles many African states since their indepen- Kindleberger,for example,wrote in 1969 dence,and currently post-Soviet Russia. that "the nation-state is just about The less competent a state,the more like- through as an economic unit." ly it is to dissolve into component parts or Globalizers of the 1990s believe that this be unable to adapt to transnational devel- time it really is happening.The state has opments.Challenges at home and abroad lost its "monopoly over internal sover- test the mettle of states.In modern times, eignty",Wolfgang H.Reinecke writes, enough states have always passed the test and as“an externally sovereign actor'”it to keep the international system function- "will become a thing of the past."10 But ing as a system of states.The challenges even as this is being asserted it is striking vary but states endure.They have proved that,internally,the range of governmen- to be hardy survivors. tal functions and the extent of state con- trol over societies and economies has sel- 9Spiro,The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony: dom been fuller than it is now.After Petrodollar Recycling and International Markets World War IⅡ，West European govern- (Ithaca,NY:Cornell University Press,1999), ments spent about 25 percent of their especially chap.6. nations'products;now the figure is 10Reinecke,"Global Public Policy",Foreign Affairs about 50 percent.In many parts of the (November/December 1997),p.137. Globalization and American Power. Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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The State in International Politics loosely connected economically.They nevertheless sustained an uneasy peace for CONOMIC globalization four and a half decades.The most impor- would mean that the world tant causes of peace,as of war,are found -/economy,or at least the glob- in international-political conditions, alized portion of it,would be not merely including the weaponry available to states. interdependent but integrated.The dif- Events following the Cold War dramati- ference between an interdependent and cally demonstrate the political weakness an integrated world is a qualitative one of economic forces.The integration (not and not a mere matter of proportionately just the interdependence)of the parts of more trade and greater and more rapid the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia,with all flows of capital.With integration,the of their entangling economic interests, world would look like one big state. did not prevent their disintegration. Economic markets and interests,howev- Governments and people sacrifice welfare er,cannot perform the functions of gov- and even security in pursuit of national, ernment.Integration requires or pre- ethnic and religious ends. sumes a government to protect,direct National politics,not international and control. markets,account for many international Interdependence,in contrast,is "the economic developments.Many students of mere mutualism"of states,as Emile politics and economics believe that eco- Durkheim put it.Interdependence is not nomic blocs are becoming more common. only looser than is usually thought but is But economic interests and market forces also politically less consequential. do not create blocs;governments do. Interdependence did not produce the Without governmental decisions the Coal world-shaking events of 1989-91.A politi- and Steel Community,the European cal event,the failure of one of the world's Economic Community,and the European two great powers,did that.Had the con- Union would not have emerged.American figuration of international politics not governments forged NAFTA,and it was fundamentally changed,neither the unifi- Japan that fashioned an East and cation of Germany nor the war against Southeast Asian producing and trading Saddam Hussein would have been possi- area.Governments intervene much more ble.The most important events in inter- in international economic matters today national politics are explained by differ- than they did in the earlier era of interde- ences in the capabilities of states,not by pendence.Before World War I,foreign economic forces operating across states or ministry officials were famed for their lack transcending them.Interdependence the- of knowledge of,or interest in,economic orists,and globalizers even more so,argue affairs.Because governments have become that the international economic interests much more active in economic affairs at of states work against their going to war. home and abroad,interdependence has True,they do;yet if one asks whether become less of an autonomous force in economic interests or nuclear weapons international politics. inhibit war more strongly,the answer The many commentators who exag- obviously is nuclear weapons. gerate the closeness of interdependence, Europe's great powers prior to World and even more so the extent of globaliza- War I were tightly bound together eco- tion,think of individual states rather than nomically.They nevertheless fought a of the international political system as a long and bloody war.The United States whole.Many small states import and and the Soviet Union were not even export large shares of their gross national 52 The National Interest-Spring 2000. Copyright C2000.All rights reserved
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products.But states with large GNPs do tively decides that they are politically and not.When most of the great powers economically unworthy,but some coun- were smaller,they depended heavily on tries abroad,like some firms at home,are one another both economically and mili- so important that they cannot be allowed tarily.Great Britain and Germany before to fail.National governments and inter- World War I were each other's second- national agencies then come to the rescue. best customers for both exports and The United States is the country that imports,and their trade accounted for a most often has the ability and the will to huge proportion of their GNPs-52 and step in.The agency that most often acts is 38 percent,respectively.After World War the IMF,and most countries think of the II,the world's two great powers were IMF as the enforcement arm of the U.S. barely dependent on others,while a num- Treasury.Thomas Friedman believes that ber of other states depended heavily on when the "herd"makes its decisions, them.The terms of political,economic there is no appeal,but often there is one, and military competition are set by the and it is for a bailout organized by the larger units of the international political United States. system.Through centuries of multipo- The international economy,like larity,with five or so great powers of national economies,operates within a set comparable size competing with one of rules and institutions that have to be another,the international system was made and sustained.Britain to a large highly interdependent.Under bipolarity extent provided this service prior to World and unipolarity the degree of interde- War I;no one did between the wars,and pendence has declined markedly. the United States has done so since. States are differentiated from one another not by function but primarily by capability.For two reasons inequalities The Unbidden Fist across states have greater political impact F,ECONOMICALLY,the United than inequalities across income groups States is the world's most impor- within states.First,the inequalities of tant country,militarily it is the states are larger and have been growing decisive one.Thomas Friedman puts the more rapidly.Rich countries have become point simply:the world is sustained by richer while poor countries have "the presence of American power and remained poor.Second,in a system with- America's willingness to use that power out central governance,the influence of against those who would threaten the sys- the units of greater capability is dispro- tem of globalization....The hidden hand portionately large because there are no of the market will never work without a effective laws and institutions to direct hidden fist."But the fist is in full view. and constrain them.They are able to On its military forces,the United work the system to their advantage,as the States outspends the next seven biggest petrodollar example cited above shows. spenders combined.When force is In the international system as it exists required to keep or to restore the peace, today,the United States is truly blessed. either the United States leads the way or Precisely because the United States the peace is not kept.The Cold War mili- depends relatively little on others,it has a tarized international politics.Relations wide range of policy choices and the abili- between the United States and the Soviet ty both to bring pressure on others and to Union,and among some other countries assist them.The“herd”with its capital as well,came to be defined largely in a may flee from countries when it collec- single dimension:the military one. Globalization and American Power. 53 Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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Oddly,the end of the Cold War has when the imbalance between one and the elevated the importance of the military rest is great,catching up is difficult. component in American foreign policy. French leaders especially bemoan the Thus,William J.Perry and Ashton B. absence of multipolarity and call for Carter,former secretary and assistant sec- greater European strength,but one can- retary of defense,have recently offered not usefully will the end without willing the concept of“preventive defense'”asa the means.The uneven distribution of guide to American policy.Preventive capabilities continues to be the key to defense is conducted by American defense understanding international politics. officials engaging in"security and military America continues to garrison much dialogue with regional states";it calls for of the world and to look for ways of keep- "a more robust defense to defense pro- ing troops in foreign countries rather than gram."Indeed,in many of the successor withdrawing them,as one might have states of the Soviet Union,and in some expected it to do at the Cold War's end.12 other parts of the world as well,our The 1992 draft of the Pentagon's Defense defense personnel carry out what Planning Guidance advocated "discourag- American policy there is. ing the advanced industrialized nations The United States continues to spend, from...even aspiring to a larger global too,at a Cold War pace.In real terms, or regional role."The United States may America's 1995 military budget approxi- at times seek help from others,but not too mately equaled the 1980 budget,and in much help,lest it lose its leading position 1980 the Cold War was at its height.The in one part of the world or another.The fact that most other countries have document,when it was leaked,provoked reduced their budgets more than the criticism.In response,emphasis was United States has heightened its military placed on its being only a draft,but its dominance.Some say that the world is not tenets continue to guide American policy. really unipolar because the United States often needs,or at least seeks,the help of Discontent in the Caboose others.The truth,however,remains:the stronger have many more ways of coping N A SYSTEM of balanced states, with adversities than the weak have,and the domination by one or some of the latter depend on the former much them has in the past been pre- more than the other way around.The vented by the reaction of others acting as United States is the only country that can counterweights.The states of Europe organize and lead a military coalition,as it held each other in balance through the did in Irag and in the Balkans.Some states first three hundred years of the modern have little choice but to participate,partly state system.In the following fifty years, because of the pressure the strong can bring to bear on the weak and partly Perry and Carter,Preventive Defense:A New because of the needs of the latter.West Security Strategy for America (Washington,DC: European countries and Japan are more Brookings Institution Press,1999),pp.9,11. dependent on Middle Eastern oil than is 12Hans Binnendijk,for example,has urged the United States,and Western Europe is Americans to develop a case for leaving more affected by what happens in Eastern American troops in South Korea even if the Europe than is the United States. North should no longer be a threat.See As expected,the beneficiaries resent Strategic Assessment 1996:Instruments of U.S. their benefactor,which leads to talk of Power (Washington,DC:National Defense righting the imbalance of power.Yet University Press,1996),p.2. The National Interest-Spring 2000. Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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the United States and the Soviet Union which is becoming part of the new balance checked each other,each protecting its of power in the world. sphere and attempting to manage affairs In the Cold War,the United States within it.Since the end of the Cold War, won a decisive victory.Victory in war, the United States has been alone in the however,often breeds lasting enmities. world;no state or combination of states Magnanimity in victory is rare.Winners of provides an effective counterweight. wars,facing few impediments to the exer- What are the implications for inter- cise of their wills,often act in ways that national politics?The more interdepen- create future enemies.Thus Germany,by dent the system,the more a surrogate for taking Alsace and most of Lorraine from government is needed.Some Americans France in 1871,earned its lasting enmity; believe that the United States provides and the Allies'harsh treatment of this service and that,because of its mod- Germany after World War I produced a eration,other states will continue to similar effect.In contrast,Bismarck per- appreciate,or at least to accept,its man- suaded the Kaiser not to march his armies agerial role.Benign hegemony is,howev- along the road to Vienna after the great er,something of a contradiction in terms. victory at Koniggratz in 1866.In the "One reads about the world's desire for Treaty of Prague,Prussia took no Austrian American leadership only in the United territory.Thus Austria,having become States",a British diplomat has remarked. Austria-Hungary,was available as an "Everywhere else one reads about alliance partner for Germany in 1879. American arrogance and unilateralism." Rather than learning from history,the American leaders seem to believe that United States repeats past errors by America's pre-eminent position will last expanding NATO eastward and extending indefinitely.The United States would its influence over what used to be the then remain the dominant power without province of the vanquished.This alienates rivals rising to challenge it,a position Russia and nudges it toward China without precedent in modern history. instead of drawing it toward Europe and When Americans speak of preserving the America.Despite much talk about the balance in East Asia through our military “globalization”of international politics,. presence,the Chinese understandably American political leaders to a dismaying take this to mean that we intend to main- extent think of East or West rather than of tain the strategic hegemony we now enjoy their interaction. in the absence of a balance of power.When McGeorge Bundy once described the China makes steady though modest efforts United States as "the locomotive at the to improve the quality of its inferior head of mankind,and the rest of the forces,we see a future threat to our and world the caboose."America's pulling others'interests.Whatever worries the power is at a peak that cannot be sus- United States has in East Asia and whatev- tained,for two main reasons.First, er threats it feels,Japan experiences them America is a country of 276 million peo- earlier,feels them more severely,and ple in a world of 6 billion,representing reacts to them.China then worries as less than 5 percent of the world's total Japan improves its airlift and sealift capa- population.The country's physical capa- bilities and as the United States bolsters bilities and political will cannot sustain its forces in Korea.The actions and reac- present international burdens indefinitely. tions of China,Japan and Korea,with or Second,other countries may not enjoy without American participation,are creat- being placed at the back of the train.Both ing a new balance of power in East Asia, friends and foes will react as countries Globalization and American Power Copyright 2000.All rights reserved
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