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上海交通大学:《系统思考与科学决策 Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making》课程教学资源(讲义)Lecture 6 The Market that Plays

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The Market that Plays 28 March,2017 上滋充通大¥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

The Market that Plays 28 March, 2017

Review of Previous Cases 上滋充通大滓 3 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - 3 Review of Previous Cases

Stamping Die Development Process Source:http://www.tescoeng.com/images/stamp-dies.gif Panel Design Panel Data Die Design Die Surface Geometry Analysis Results Die Data Geometry Manufacturability Analysis Results Surface Evaluation Modeling Surface Data Surface Data L Prototype Highly Iterative Process Verification Die Data how often is each task carried out Verification Data ·how long to complete? Production Die .Project Simulation is the option. 上海充通大¥ 4 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - 4 Stamping Die Development Process Panel Design Die Design Manufacturability Evaluation Prototype Die Production Die Surface Modeling Panel Data Verification Data Surface Data Analysis Results Surface Data Surface Data Analysis Results Die Geometry Die Geometry Verification Data Highly Iterative Process • how often is each task carried out ? • how long to complete? •Project Simulation is the option. Source:http://www.tescoeng.com/images/stamp-dies.gif

Solar radiation: The Greenhouse Effect Sun 343 Watts per Some of the solar Outgoing solar radiation is radiation:103 reflected by the Watts per m- atmosphere and the Earth's surface Some of the Outgoing infrared radiation infrared passes through radiations:240 the atmosphere Watts per m2 and out into space Solar radiation Atmosphere passes through the atmosphere mind setar Greenhouse Gases adiaton240 Walis per m Some of the infrared radiation is About half the absorbed and re-emitted by the solar radiation is greenhouse gas molecules. absorbed by the Earth Earth's surface Radiation is converted to heat energy,causing Absorbation solar the emission of longwave (infrared)radiation radiation:168 Watts per m2 back to the atmosphere

+- 5

Global Warming vs Ice Age Positive Feedback Negative Feedback 上滋充通大滓 盒 6 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - 6 Global Warming vs Ice Age  Positive Feedback  Negative Feedback

Stock and flow diagram of global carbon cycle and heat balance Flux Biomass to Humus CO2 in Humus Flux Humus to Blomass Flux Humus to CO2 in Atmosphere 日ioma65 Fluk Biomass to Atmosphere CO2 in Z Atmosphere Anthropogenic Flux Atmosphere CO2 Emissions to日ioma5 Insolation Flux Atmosphere Flux Ocean Net to Ocean to Atmosphere Radiative Forcing Atmosphere CO2 in Heat Stored in Atmosphere Upper Ocean Mixed Layer Upper Ocean Tempcrature A5 Heat 中+ Net CO2 Flux Exchange Temperature between to Deep Ocean Surface and Difference Deep Ocean CO2 in Heat Stored in Deep Ocean Deep Ocean Deep Ocean Temperature Source Adapted from Fidaman (1997] 上浒充通大¥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Stock and flow diagram of global carbon cycle and heat balance

Climate Change Emissions Absorption Atmospheric CO2 Simply stabilizing emissions will not stop the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels In order to lower atmospheric CO2, emissions must fall below absorption 上游充通大¥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Climate Change Atmospheric CO2 Emissions Absorption Simply stabilizing emissions will not stop the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels In order to lower atmospheric CO2, emissions must fall below absorption

Diabetes in the US Available Resources Resources Demand for Need for Prevention Screening/Treatment for Prevention Resources Prevention Pressure Treatment +Pressure Obesity,Poor diet, Slippery Screening Treatment Lack of exercise Slope Downstream Priority Downstre am Priority Healthy People with People with Undiagnosed Diagnosed Population People Onset Diabetes Diagnosis Diabetes Death of increase Diagnosed Death of Death of Healthy Undiagnosed 上海充通大学 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Healthy People People with Undiagnosed Diabetes People with Diagnosed Diabetes Population increase Onset Diagnosis Death of Diagnosed Death of Undiagnosed Death of Healthy Obesity, Poor diet, Lack of exercise Treatment Downstre am Priority + + - + Screening Downstream Priority Resources Need for Prevention for Prevention + Demand for Screening/Treatment Resources + - + - + + B Prevention Pressure + R R Available Resources R Slippery Slope B Treatment Pressure Diabetes in the US

Where's the shortage? 上酒充通大睾 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Where’s the shortage?

Price of Demand Substitutes Relative Value B Feedback Price structure of markets Profits B Cost of Supply Production 上游充通大睾 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Price of + Demand Substitutes + Relative Value B - Feedback Price + structure - of markets + Profits B - Cost of Supply + Production

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