第18章 权益估值 Equity valuation 18-1
18-1 第18章 权益估值 Equity Valuation
权益估值 Equity valuation 18.1比较估价 182内在价值与市场价格 18.3股利贴现模型 184市盈率比率 18.5公司财务与自由现金流方法 186通货膨胀与权益资产评价 187股票市场的总体表现 18-2
18-2 权益估值 Equity Valuation 18.1 比较估价 18.2 内在价值与市场价格 18.3 股利贴现模型 18.4 市盈率比率 18.5 公司财务与自由现金流方法 18.6 通货膨胀与权益资产评价 18.7 股票市场的总体表现
基本面股票分析:权益估值模型 Fundamental Stock Analysis: Models of Equity Valuation ■模式的基本类型 Basic Types of Models 资产负债表模型 Balance sheet models 股利贴现模型 Dividend discount models 市盈率模型 Price/Earning Ratios ■{计增长率和机会 Estimating Growth Rates and Opportunities 18-3
18-3 基本面股票分析：权益估值模型 Fundamental Stock Analysis: Models of Equity Valuation 模式的基本类型 Basic Types of Models – 资产负债表模型 Balance Sheet Models – 股利贴现模型 Dividend Discount Models – 市盈率模型 Price/Earning Ratios 估计增长率和机会 Estimating Growth Rates and Opportunities
内在价值和市场价格 Intrinsic value and market price ■内在价值 iNtrinsic Value 自己指派的价值 Self assigned value 用多种模型来进行估计 Variety of models are used for estimation 市场价格 Market Price 全部可能的交易者认可的价值额 Consensus value of all potential traders 184
18-4 内在价值和市场价格 Intrinsic Value and Market Price 内在价值Intrinsic Value –自己指派的价值 Self assigned Value –用多种模型来进行估计 Variety of models are used for estimation 市场价格Market Price –全部可能的交易者认可的价值额 Consensus value of all potential traders
内在价值 Intrinsic value 股票的每股内在价值用表示,被定义为投资者从股票上所能 得到的全部现金回报,包括红利和最终售出股票的损益,是用 正确反映了风险调整的利率k贴现所得的现值。根据一年的投 资期和一年后P1=52美元的价格的预测,内在价值为: The intrinsic value, denoted vo. of a share of stock is defined as the present value of all cash payments to the investor in the stock, including dividends as well as the proceeds from the ultimate sale of the stock, discounted at the appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate, k In the case of ABc using a one-year investment horizon and a forecast that the stock can be sold at the end of the year at price P1 $52, the intrinsic value is 0=(E(D1)+E(P1)(1+k)=(4+52)/1.12=50美元 18-5
18-5 内在价值 Intrinsic Value 股票的每股内在价值用 V0表示，被定义为投资者从股票上所能 得到的全部现金回报，包括红利和最终售出股票的损益，是用 正确反映了风险调整的利率k 贴现所得的现值。根据一年的投 资期和一年后 P1＝52美元的价格的预测，内在价值为： The intrinsic value, denoted V0, of a share of stock is defined as the present value of all cash payments to the investor in the stock, including dividends as well as the proceeds from the ultimate sale of the stock, discounted at the appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate, k. In the case of ABC, using a one-year investment horizon and a forecast that the stock can be sold at the end of the year at price P1 $52, the intrinsic value is V0＝(E(D1)＋E(P1))/(1+k)=(4＋52)/1.12 ＝50美元
内在价值和市场价格 Intrinsic value and market price 交易信号 Trading Signa 内在价值>市场价格买 IV>MP Buy 内在价值<市场价格卖或卖空Ⅳ< MP Sell! or short Sell 内在价值=市场价格持有Ⅳ= MP Hold or Fairly Priced 18-6
18-6 内在价值和市场价格 Intrinsic Value and Market Price 交易信号Trading Signal – 内在价值>市场价格 买 IV > MP Buy – 内在价值<市场价格 卖或卖空 IV < MP Sell or Short Sell – 内在价值= 市场价格 持有IV = MP Hold or Fairly Priced
股利贴现模型:一般模型 Dividend discount models General model D =(1+k) ■∨o=股票价值 Value of stock ■D=股利 Dividend ■k=必要收益率 required return 18-7
18-7 股利贴现模型 ：一般模型 Dividend Discount Models: General Model V D k o t t t = = + (1 ) 1 V0 = 股票价值 Value of Stock Dt = 股利 Dividend k = 必要收益率 required return
非增长模型 No Growth mode D ■保持收益和股利不变的股票 Stocks that have earnings and dividends that are expected to remain constant ■优先股 Preferred stock 18-8
18-8 非增长模型 No Growth Model V D k o = 保持收益和股利不变的股票 Stocks that have earnings and dividends that are expected to remain constant 优先股 Preferred Stock
非增长模型:举例 No Growth Model: Example D E1=D1=$5.00 k=.15 Vo=$5.00/.15=$3333 18-9
18-9 非增长模型：举例 No Growth Model: Example E1 = D1 = $5.00 k = .15 V0 = $5.00 / .15 = $33.33 V D k o =
固定增长模型 Constant Growth model o、D(1+g) k-g ■g=固定增长率 constant perpetual growth rate
18-10 固定增长模型 Constant Growth Model Vo D g k g o = + − (1 ) g =固定增长率 constant perpetual growth rate