《国际投资》课程教学资源（参考资料）World Investment Report 2019 Overview《2019年世界投资报告》.pdf_大学文库

For some time now, the global policy climate for trade and investment has not been as benign as it was in the heyday of export-led growth and development. Yet the need to attract investment and promote exports to support industrialization, economic diversification and structural transformation is as great as ever for developing countries, especially the least developed countries. The many new industrial policies that have been adopted in recent years – in both developing and developed countries – almost all rely to a significant degree on attracting investment. At the same time, we are observing a declining trend in cross-border productive investment. The market for internationally mobile investment in industrial capacity is thus becoming increasingly difficult and competitive. The demand for investment is as strong as ever, the supply is dwindling and the marketplace is less friendly then before. It is in this context that we are seeing explosive growth in the use of special economic zones (SEZs) as key policy instruments for the attraction of investment for industrial development. More than 1,000 have been developed worldwide in the last five years, and by UNCTAD’s count at least 500 more are in the pipeline for the coming years. There are many examples of SEZs that have played a key role in structural transformation, in promoting greater participation in global value chains and in catalyzing industrial upgrading. But for every success story there are multiple zones that did not attract the anticipated influx of investors, with some having become costly failures. In countries with an SEZ portfolio or with ambitious SEZ development programmes, policymakers and practitioners – in ministries responsible for industry, trade and investment; in SEZ authorities; and in export and investment promotion agencies, to mention a few – are looking to turn around underperforming zones and to ensure that new ones meet expectations. FOREWORD iv World Investment Report 2019 Special Economic Zones

The World Investment Report 2019 was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Arslan Chaudhary, Hamed El Kady, Kumi Endo, Thomas van Giffen, Kálmán Kalotay, Joachim Karl, Isya Kresnadi, Oktawian Kuc, Jing Li, Anthony Miller, Kyoungho Moon, Abraham Negash, Shin Ohinata, Diana Rosert, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee. Research support and inputs were provided by Jorun Baumgartner, Faicel Belaid, Magdalena Bulit Goni, Juan Carlos Castillo, Tiffany Grabski, Yulia Levashova, Luisa Sande Lemos, Sergey Ripinsky and Linli Yu. Interns Zahra Ejehi, Robert Kuhn, Alina Nazarova and Mxolisi Artwell Ngulube also contributed. Comments and contributions were provided by Stephania Bonilla, Joseph Clements, Chantal Dupasquier, Ariel Ivanier, Mathabo Le Roux, Massimo Meloni, Jason Munyan, Yongfu Ouyang, Ian Richards, Christoph Spennemann and Paul Wessendorp. Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly, Smita Lakhe and Lizanne Martinez. The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copyedited by Lise Lingo. Pablo Cortizo designed the charts, maps and infographics; he and Laurence Duchemin typeset the report. Production of the report was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Nathalie Eulaerts, Rosalina Goyena, Sivanla Sikounnavong and Katia Vieu. The report benefited from extensive advice from François Bost and Rajneesh Narula on chapter IV. At various stages of preparation, including during the expert meetings organized to discuss drafts, the team received comments and inputs from these experts: Aradhna Aggarwal, Xiangming Chen, Teresa Cheng, Manjiao Chi, Riccardo Crescenzi, Stefan Csordas, Thomas Farole, Masataka Fujita, Yeseul Hyun, N. Jansen Calamita, Markus Krajewski, Alexey Kuznetsov, Olga Kuznetsova, Guangwen Meng, Maria Camila Moreno, Shree Ravi, Emily Sims, Ilan Strauss, Juan Torrents and Giovanni Valensisi. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vi World Investment Report 2019 Special Economic Zones

KEY MESSAGES INVESTMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows continued their slide in 2018, falling by 13 per cent to $1.3 trillion. The decline – the third consecutive year’s fall in FDI – was mainly due to large-scale repatriations of accumulated foreign earnings by United States multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the first two quarters of 2018, following tax reforms introduced by that country at the end of 2017. FDI flows to developed economies reached the lowest point since 2004, declining by 27 per cent. Inflows to Europe halved to less than $200 billion, due to negative inflows in a few large host countries as a result of funds repatriations and to a sizeable drop in the United Kingdom. Inflows in the United States also declined, by 9 per cent to $252 billion. Flows to developing countries remained stable, rising by 2 per cent. As a result of the increase and the anomalous fall in FDI in developed countries, the share of developing countries in global FDI increased to 54 per cent, a record. • FDI flows to Africa rose by 11 per cent to $46 billion, despite declines in many of the larger recipient countries. The increase was supported by continued resource-seeking inflows, some diversified investments and a recovery in South Africa after several years of low-level inflows. • Flows to developing Asia, the largest recipient region, were up 4 per cent. In a sign of continued dynamism, greenfield project announcements in the region doubled in value, recovering from their 2017 pause. • FDI in Latin America and the Caribbean was 6 per cent lower, failing to maintain momentum after the 2017 increase halted a long slide. Total IIAs in force 2 658 40 in 2018 + ISDS cases 71new chaper 1-2 chaper 3 66% 34% Liberalization/promotion Restriction/regulation National investment policy measures - $1.3 trillion 13% Global FDI 2018 Greeneld investment in manufacturing up 35% 1/3 Top 100 MNEs account for more than of business-funded R&D worldwide 5 400 147 across economies zones SEZ Sustainable Prot and Loss Development Statement FDI downward trend Developed Developing $557 bn $706 bn Transition $34 bn 2007–2018 Bilateral building developing countries Z NESin partnerships New type of SEZ: SDG model zone Total IIAs in force 2 658 40 in 2018 + ISDS cases 71new chaper 1-2 chaper 3 66% 34% Liberalization/promotion Restriction/regulation National investment policy measures - $1.3 trillion 13% Global FDI 2018 Greeneld investment in manufacturing up 35% 1/3 Top 100 MNEs account for more than of business-funded R&D worldwide 5 400 147 across economies zones SEZ Sustainable Prot and Loss Development Statement FDI downward trend Developed Developing $557 bn $706 bn Transition $34 bn 2007–2018 Bilateral building developing countries Z NESin partnerships New type of SEZ: SDG model zone Key Messages ix

FDI in the region is still 27 per cent lower than during the peak of the commodities boom. FDI flows to structurally weak and vulnerable economies continued to account for less than 3 per cent of the global total.Flows to the least developed countries recovered from their 2017 fall,back to $24 billion,the average for the decade. FDI flows to economies in transition continued their downward trend in 2018, declining by 28 per cent to $34 billion,driven by a 49 per cent drop in flows to the Russian Federation. The tax-driven fall in FDI was cushioned by increased transaction activity in the second half of 2018.The value of cross-border merger and acquisitions(M&As) rose by 18 per cent,fueled by United States MNEs using liquidity in their foreign affiliates that was no longer encumbered by tax liabilities. In 2019,FDI is expected to see a rebound in developed economies as the effect of the tax reforms winds down.Greenfield project announcements-indicating forward spending plans-also point at an increase,as they were up 41 per cent in 2018 from their low 2017 levels.Despite this,projections for global FDl show only a modest recovery of 10 per cent to about $1.5 trillion,below the average over the past 10 years.The underlying FDI trend remains weak.Trade tensions also pose a downward risk for 2019 and beyond. The underlying FDI trend has shown anemic growth since 2008.FDI net of one-off factors such as tax reforms,megadeals and volatile financial flows has averaged only 1 per cent growth per year for a decade,compared with 8 per cent in 2000-2007,and more than 20 per cent before 2000.Explanations include declining rates of return on FDl,increasingly asset-light forms of investment and a less favourable investment policy climate. The long-term slide of greenfield investment in manufacturing halted in 2018,with the value of Greenfield investment announced projects up 35 per cent from the in manufacturing low value in 2017.Among developing countries where manufacturing investment is key for industrial development-the growth was mostly uD35% concentrated in Asia and pushed up by high- value projects in natural resource processing industries. World mestmen Report 2019Spd Ecom o

FDI in the region is still 27 per cent lower than during the peak of the commodities boom. • FDI flows to structurally weak and vulnerable economies continued to account for less than 3 per cent of the global total. Flows to the least developed countries recovered from their 2017 fall, back to $24 billion, the average for the decade. FDI flows to economies in transition continued their downward trend in 2018, declining by 28 per cent to $34 billion, driven by a 49 per cent drop in flows to the Russian Federation. The tax-driven fall in FDI was cushioned by increased transaction activity in the second half of 2018. The value of cross-border merger and acquisitions (M&As) rose by 18 per cent, fueled by United States MNEs using liquidity in their foreign affiliates that was no longer encumbered by tax liabilities. In 2019, FDI is expected to see a rebound in developed economies as the effect of the tax reforms winds down. Greenfield project announcements – indicating forward spending plans – also point at an increase, as they were up 41 per cent in 2018 from their low 2017 levels. Despite this, projections for global FDI show only a modest recovery of 10 per cent to about $1.5 trillion, below the average over the past 10 years. The underlying FDI trend remains weak. Trade tensions also pose a downward risk for 2019 and beyond. The underlying FDI trend has shown anemic growth since 2008. FDI net of one-off factors such as tax reforms, megadeals and volatile financial flows has averaged only 1 per cent growth per year for a decade, compared with 8 per cent in 2000–2007, and more than 20 per cent before 2000. Explanations include declining rates of return on FDI, increasingly asset-light forms of investment and a less favourable investment policy climate. The long-term slide of greenfield investment in manufacturing halted in 2018, with the value of announced projects up 35 per cent from the low value in 2017. Among developing countries – where manufacturing investment is key for industrial development – the growth was mostly concentrated in Asia and pushed up by highvalue projects in natural resource processing industries. Total IIAs in force 2 658 40 in 2018 + ISDS cases 71new chaper 1-2 chaper 3 66% 34% Liberalization/promotion Restriction/regulation National investment policy measures - $1.3 trillion 13% Global FDI 2018 Greeneld investment in manufacturing up 35% 1/3 Top 100 MNEs account for more than of business-funded R&D worldwide 5 400 147 across economies zones SEZ Sustainable Prot and Loss Development Statement FDI downward trend Developed Developing $557 bn $706 bn Transition $34 bn 2007–2018 Bilateral building developing countries Z NESin partnerships New type of SEZ: SDG model zone x World Investment Report 2019 Special Economic Zones

The number of State-owned MNEs(SO-MNEs) stabilized,and their acquisitions abroad slowed Top 100 MNEs down.There are close to 1,500 SO-MNEs, account for more than similar to 2017.Their presence in the top 100 of business-funded global MNEs increased by one to 16.The value R&D worldwide of their M&A activity shrank to 4 per cent of total M&As in 2018,following a gradual decline from more than 10 per cent on average in 2008-2013. Much of the continued expansion of intemational production is driven by intangibles.Non-equity modes of international production are growing faster than FDl,visible in the relative growth rates of royalties,licensing fees and services trade.The top 100 MNE ranking for 2018 confirms that industrial MNEs are sliding down the list,with some dropping out. MNEs in the global top 100 account for more than one third of business- funded R&D worldwide.Technology,pharmaceutical and automotive MNEs are the biggest spenders.The R&D intensity (relative to sales)of the developing- country top 100 is significantly lower.International greenfield investment in R&D activities is sizeable and growing. A significant part of investment between developing countries (South-South FDl)is ultimately owned by developed-country MNEs.New data on the global network of direct and indirect bilateral FDI relationships shows the important role of regional investment hubs in intraregional FDI and in South-South FDI Indirect investment also has implications for the coverage of international investment agreements. INVESTMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS New national investment policy measures show a more critical stance towards foreign investment.In 2018,some 55 economies introduced at least 112 measures affecting foreign investment.More than one third of these measures introduced new restrictions or regulations-the highest number for two decades.They mainly reflected national security concerns about foreign ownership of critical infrastructure,core technologies National investment and other sensitive business assets.Furthermore,at policy measures Key Mess可5对

The number of State-owned MNEs (SO-MNEs) stabilized, and their acquisitions abroad slowed down. There are close to 1,500 SO-MNEs, similar to 2017. Their presence in the top 100 global MNEs increased by one to 16. The value of their M&A activity shrank to 4 per cent of total M&As in 2018, following a gradual decline from more than 10 per cent on average in 2008–2013. Much of the continued expansion of international production is driven by intangibles. Non-equity modes of international production are growing faster than FDI, visible in the relative growth rates of royalties, licensing fees and services trade. The top 100 MNE ranking for 2018 confirms that industrial MNEs are sliding down the list, with some dropping out. MNEs in the global top 100 account for more than one third of businessfunded R&D worldwide. Technology, pharmaceutical and automotive MNEs are the biggest spenders. The R&D intensity (relative to sales) of the developingcountry top 100 is significantly lower. International greenfield investment in R&D activities is sizeable and growing. A significant part of investment between developing countries (South–South FDI) is ultimately owned by developed-country MNEs. New data on the global network of direct and indirect bilateral FDI relationships shows the important role of regional investment hubs in intraregional FDI and in South–South FDI. Indirect investment also has implications for the coverage of international investment agreements. INVESTMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS New national investment policy measures show a more critical stance towards foreign investment. In 2018, some 55 economies introduced at least 112 measures affecting foreign investment. More than one third of these measures introduced new restrictions or regulations – the highest number for two decades. They mainly reflected national security concerns about foreign ownership of critical infrastructure, core technologies and other sensitive business assets. Furthermore, at Total IIAs in force 2 658 40 in 2018 + ISDS cases 71new chaper 1-2 chaper 3 66% 34% Liberalization/promotion Restriction/regulation National investment policy measures - $1.3 trillion 13% Global FDI 2018 Greeneld investment in manufacturing up 35% 1/3 Top 100 MNEs account for more than of business-funded R&D worldwide 5 400 147 across economies zones SEZ Sustainable Prot and Loss Development Statement FDI downward trend Developed Developing $557 bn $706 bn Transition $34 bn 2007–2018 Bilateral building developing countries Z NESin partnerships New type of SEZ: SDG model zone Total IIAs in force 2 658 40 in 2018 + ISDS cases 71new chaper 1-2 chaper 3 66% 34% Liberalization/promotion Restriction/regulation National investment policy measures - $1.3 trillion 13% Global FDI 2018 Greeneld investment in manufacturing up 35% 1/3 Top 100 MNEs account for more than of business-funded R&D worldwide 5 400 147 across economies zones SEZ Sustainable Prot and Loss Development Statement FDI downward trend Developed Developing $557 bn $706 bn Transition $34 bn 2007–2018 Bilateral building developing countries Z NESin partnerships New type of SEZ: SDG model zone Key Messages xi