Chapter 1 Decision Analvsis 决草分析
Chapter 1 Decision Analysis 决策分析
1.1 A Decision Tree Model and its Analysis 1.2 Another decision tree model and it Analysis 1.3 The Need for a Systematic Theory of Probability 1. 4 Exercises
1.1 A Decision Tree Model and its Analysis 1.2 Another Decision Tree Model and it Analysis 1.3 The Need for a Systematic Theory of Probability 1.4 Exercises
1.1 A Decision Tree Model and its Analysis Decision analysis is a logical and systematic way to address a wide variety of problems involving decision-making in an uncertain environment 决策分析是在不确定环境下进行决策时对面 临的众多问题描述处理的一种逻辑和系统的方法
1.1 A Decision Tree Model and its Analysis Decision analysis is a logical and systematic way to address a wide variety of problems involving decision-making in an uncertain environment. 决策分析是在不确定环境下进行决策时对面 临的众多问题描述处理的一种逻辑和系统的方法
Bill Sampras Summer Job decision Bill sampras is in the third week of his first semester at the sloan School of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In addition to spending time preparing for classes, Bill has begun to think seriously about summer employment in the next summer, and in particular about a decision he must make in the next several weeks Bill Sampras在第一学期第三周考虑明年夏天的 暑假打工计划,在以后几个星期中要做出决策
Bill Sampras’ Summer Job Decision Bill Sampras is in the third week of his first semester at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT). In addition to spending time preparing for classes, Bill has begun to think seriously about summer employment in the next summer, and in particular about a decision he must make in the next several weeks. Bill Sampras在第一学期第三周考虑明年夏天的 暑假打工计划，在以后几个星期中要做出决策
Salaries 1. Offer from John $12.000 2. Table 1. 1 on Page7 3. Offer from Vanessa $14000 the probabilities scenario Offer No offer Probability 60
Salaries 1.Offer from John $12,000 2.Table 1.1 on Page7 3.Offer from Vanessa $14,000 the probabilities scenario Offer No offer Probability 60% 40%
Decision Tree $14,000 $12,000 Accept anessa's Offer Accept John's Offe C A Offer from Vanessa Reject Vanessa's Offer 1.600 $16800 Reject john s Offer/0.6 E 12000 0.25 B $6,000 No Offer from Vanessa 21.600 0.4 $16800 D $12,000 $6.000 0.05 Figure 1.6: The completed decision tree
Decision Tree Accept Vanessa’s Offer Reject Vanessa’s Offer $12,000 A C B D E Accept John’s Offer Reject John’s Offer Offer from Vanessa No Offer from Vanessa $16,800 $6,000 0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05 $21,600 $12,000 $0 0.6 0.4 0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05 $21,600 $12,000 $0 $6,000 $16,800 $14,000 Figure 1.6: The completed decision tree
The expected monetary value(EMv) The eMv of an uncertain event is the weighted average of all possible numerical outcomes, with the probabilities of each of the possible outcomes used as the weights EMV是所有可能结果的加权平均值,其中权 重是各个可能结果的发生概率。 EMV=0.05×$21.600+0.25×$16800 040×$12000+0.25×$6,000+005×$0 $11,580
The expected monetary value(EMV) The EMV of an uncertain event is the weighted average of all possible numerical outcomes, with the probabilities of each of the possible outcomes used as the weights. EMV是所有可能结果的加权平均值，其中权 重是各个可能结果的发生概率。 EMV=0.05×$21,600+0.25×$16,800+ 0.40×$12,000+0.25×$6,000+0.05×$0 =$11,580
1.2 Another decision Tree model and its Analysis Continue to illustrate the methodology of decision analysis by considering a strategic development decision problem encountered by a new company called Bio-imagine, Incorporated 通过思考 B1o-imaging公司在战略发展决策中所 遇到的一个问题继续闻述决策分析方法
1.2 Another Decision Tree Model and its Analysis Continue to illustrate the methodology of decision analysis by considering a strategic development decision problem encountered by a new company called Bio-imagine, Incorporated. 通过思考Bio-imaging公司在战略发展决策中所 遇到的一个问题继续阐述决策分析方法
Bio-imaging Development Strategies 现状 o The software program has not been tested fully 该软件尚未通过完整的性能测试 The software program is more advanced and much more accurate than other methods in diagnosing lesions 比现有的其他诊断机能障碍的方法更先进、更准确
Bio-imaging Development Strategies 现状 ● The software program has not been tested fully. 该软件尚未通过完整的性能测试 ● The software program is more advanced and much more accurate than other methods in diagnosing lesions. 比现有的其他诊断机能障碍的方法更先进、更准确
Table of estimated revenues of Bio-imaging under dififerent situation Scenario Probability Total Revenues High Profit% $3,000,000 Medium Profit% $500.000 I Low Profit 40 $0 Table 1. 2: Estimated revenues of Bio-Imaging, if three-dimensional prototype is operational, and if Bio-Imaging is awarded SBIr grant
Table of estimated revenues of Bio-imaging under different situation Scenario Probability Total Revenues High Profit 20% $3,000,000 Medium Profit 40% $500,000 Low Profit 40% $0 Table 1.2: Estimated revenues of Bio-Imaging, if three-dimensional prototype is operational, and if Bio-Imaging is awarded SBIR grant