“美国文明史”结业论文(2013年春) 大萧条与次贷危机诱因之比较 王也敬 5110209072 机械与动力工程学院 中文摘要：2008年次贷危机爆发，其严重程度史上罕见，在令人瞠目结舌的同时也让人 想到了几十年前发生在资本主义世界的大萧条。两次危机有着众多的不同点， 但在根源上又是那么的相似。本文将讨论两次经济危机诱因的异同，并深入 分析隐藏在表象下面的问题本质。 关键词：次贷危机：大萧条；原因：本质：资本主义 Comparison and Contrast between the Causes of the Great Depression and Sub-crime Crisis Abstract:An unusual sub-crime crisis broke out in the year of 2008,shocking billions of people worldwide.This crisis reminds us of the Great Depression happened in the capitalism world decades ago.There are many differences between them,but their essences are identical.The emphasis of this paper is placed on the similarities and differences of the causes of these two financial crises.And essences hidden behind all the presences will also be discussed. Key Words:Sub-crime crisis,the Great Depression.Causes,Essences,Capitalism Stock fell off a cliff;the debt of USA doubled;millions of people lost their jobs and even their life savings,ending up below the poverty line;Iceland-based banks lost about $100 billion......All of these horrible things happened in a flash,panicking the whole world,and now we are still more or less living in its sequels. There are so many causes that these two crisis share.Firstly,and also the most importantly,government is playing almost no role in regulating the financial market(though the reasons of deregulating were different as far as I'm concerned:people lacked experience of constructing financial market in 1920s,while the reason in 2008 was more a kind of relaxation because of several decades of rapid economic growth without large crisis).The fiscal policy is far too easy,and this kind of deregulation has led to a kind of prosperity that could definitely be called abnormal.In the Great Depression it was the stock market;in the sub-crime crisis it was the real estate market.Bubbles were getting bigger,and people were trapped in this awesome-looking dream.But when the bubbles broke,nothing but tears and sufferings remained."Stocks soared to dizzy heights,every month hundreds of millions of dollars in new securities were snapped by avid investors who hoped to share in the wonderful new game of making something out of nothing."The remarks vividly reveal another 1魏啸飞，《美国文明史英文教程》，2008，第215页 1
“美国文明史”结业论文（2013 年春） 1 大萧条与次贷危机诱因之比较 王也敬 5110209072 机械与动力工程学院 中文摘要：2008 年次贷危机爆发，其严重程度史上罕见，在令人瞠目结舌的同时也让人 想到了几十年前发生在资本主义世界的大萧条。两次危机有着众多的不同点， 但在根源上又是那么的相似。本文将讨论两次经济危机诱因的异同，并深入 分析隐藏在表象下面的问题本质。 关键词：次贷危机; 大萧条; 原因; 本质；资本主义 Comparison and Contrast between the Causes of the Great Depression and Sub-crime Crisis Abstract: An unusual sub-crime crisis broke out in the year of 2008, shocking billions of people worldwide. This crisis reminds us of the Great Depression happened in the capitalism world decades ago. There are many differences between them, but their essences are identical. The emphasis of this paper is placed on the similarities and differences of the causes of these two financial crises. And essences hidden behind all the presences will also be discussed. Key Words: Sub-crime crisis, the Great Depression, Causes, Essences, Capitalism Stock fell off a cliff; the debt of USA doubled; millions of people lost their jobs and even their life savings, ending up below the poverty line; Iceland-based banks lost about $100 billion…… All of these horrible things happened in a flash, panicking the whole world, and now we are still more or less living in its sequels. There are so many causes that these two crisis share. Firstly, and also the most importantly, government is playing almost no role in regulating the financial market (though the reasons of deregulating were different as far as I’m concerned: people lacked experience of constructing financial market in 1920s, while the reason in 2008 was more a kind of relaxation because of several decades of rapid economic growth without large crisis). The fiscal policy is far too easy, and this kind of deregulation has led to a kind of prosperity that could definitely be called abnormal. In the Great Depression it was the stock market; in the sub-crime crisis it was the real estate market. Bubbles were getting bigger, and people were trapped in this awesome-looking dream. But when the bubbles broke, nothing but tears and sufferings remained. “Stocks soared to dizzy heights, every month hundreds of millions of dollars in new securities were snapped by avid investors who hoped to share in the wonderful new game of making something out of nothing.” 1 The remarks vividly reveal another 1 魏啸飞，《美国文明史英文教程》，2008, 第 215 页
“美国文明史”结业论文(2013年春) common reason for these two crises:the unhealthy structure of economy.Finance was taking too much a part in the country's economy,and industrials that could turn out real products were thought to be of less significance.Undoubtedly no country will thrive for a long time with the mere support of the financial industry,and Iceland,the economy of whom totally collapsed in the sub-crime crisis,acts as a good example.The concentration of social wealth is also playing a role."It was the New Era(1920s),if the farmers and the unskilled workers did not share in its benefits,all that seemed to be coming later."2 But unfortunately it didn't come later.Too much a part of the country's wealth was in the hand of too small a part of the country's people,directly leading to the result that the consuming power of the whole society stayed much less that the production power.Purchases were cut,and the economy would in no way thrive. There're also some unique causes of these two crises.In the late 1920s,the First World War had just ended,and a Dawes Plan was passed to help solve the loan issues between the United States,Germany,French and the Great Britain.But the high tariffs of United States made it rather hard for European merchants to sell goods to America,in which way they could get US dollars and use them to buy American products.And tariffs went even higher in the beginning of the Great Depression,ruining the international relationship and financial orders. Dawes Plan was no longer useful,and the capitalism world fell into a complete mess. Financial innovation is part of the reasons for sub-prime crisis in 2008.A great number of scientists and mathematicians turned their interests to financial fields due to the end of the Second World War,and various financial derivatives were created.But instead of stabilizing the financial market as the scientists claimed,they were actually making it less safer,and they lacked effective regulation.Many "junk"investments,the most well-known of which is sub-prime,were rated AAA by irresponsible rating agencies,and evidently the economy cannot be healthy with rubbishes thrown everywhere.Another subtle reason,which is neglected by most people,also made its contribution to the current situation,that is: deregulation has gradually penetrated into the field of research.Academic economists,or theoretical economists,are major advocates of deregulation,and they are indeed shadowing their influences on policy making.This problem is severer than most people think,for the academic research has always been the front of financial innovation and the source of theoretical support for policies.To put it in a more accurate way,academic economists and financial lobbyists are taking control of the country's,even the world's financial field in a most unperceivable way. We all know what happened,and the reasons seem not that difficult to figure out.But only by unfogging the presences and find the essences hidden can we avoid tragedies like these from repeating.Through the analysis above we can clearly draw the conclusion that there's got to be something that lies behind all these causes.Though seemingly accidental,all these crisis could actually be foreseen,and predictably there will be more in the future,for the reason that the defects resulting in these crisis,severe or mild,attention-paid or not.are deeply rooted in the capital world,instead of being "the natural pulse of a free enterprise economy".While founding structural frame of the economic theory of capitalism,theoretical economists assume that every people or company will exert all their force to pursing their own interests,and they believe that the maximization of the interests of each and every 2魏啸飞，《美国文明史英文教程》，2008，第215页 2
“美国文明史”结业论文（2013 年春） 2 common reason for these two crises: the unhealthy structure of economy. Finance was taking too much a part in the country’s economy, and industrials that could turn out real products were thought to be of less significance. Undoubtedly no country will thrive for a long time with the mere support of the financial industry, and Iceland, the economy of whom totally collapsed in the sub-crime crisis, acts as a good example. The concentration of social wealth is also playing a role. “It was the New Era (1920s), if the farmers and the unskilled workers did not share in its benefits, all that seemed to be coming later.” 2 But unfortunately it didn’t come later. Too much a part of the country’s wealth was in the hand of too small a part of the country’s people, directly leading to the result that the consuming power of the whole society stayed much less that the production power. Purchases were cut, and the economy would in no way thrive. There’re also some unique causes of these two crises. In the late 1920s, the First World War had just ended, and a Dawes Plan was passed to help solve the loan issues between the United States, Germany, French and the Great Britain. But the high tariffs of United States made it rather hard for European merchants to sell goods to America, in which way they could get US dollars and use them to buy American products. And tariffs went even higher in the beginning of the Great Depression, ruining the international relationship and financial orders. Dawes Plan was no longer useful, and the capitalism world fell into a complete mess. Financial innovation is part of the reasons for sub-prime crisis in 2008. A great number of scientists and mathematicians turned their interests to financial fields due to the end of the Second World War, and various financial derivatives were created. But instead of stabilizing the financial market as the scientists claimed, they were actually making it less safer, and they lacked effective regulation. Many “junk” investments, the most well-known of which is sub-prime, were rated AAA by irresponsible rating agencies, and evidently the economy cannot be healthy with rubbishes thrown everywhere. Another subtle reason, which is neglected by most people, also made its contribution to the current situation, that is: deregulation has gradually penetrated into the field of research. Academic economists, or theoretical economists, are major advocates of deregulation, and they are indeed shadowing their influences on policy making. This problem is severer than most people think, for the academic research has always been the front of financial innovation and the source of theoretical support for policies. To put it in a more accurate way, academic economists and financial lobbyists are taking control of the country’s, even the world’s financial field in a most unperceivable way. We all know what happened, and the reasons seem not that difficult to figure out. But only by unfogging the presences and find the essences hidden can we avoid tragedies like these from repeating. Through the analysis above we can clearly draw the conclusion that there’s got to be something that lies behind all these causes. Though seemingly accidental, all these crisis could actually be foreseen, and predictably there will be more in the future, for the reason that the defects resulting in these crisis, severe or mild, attention-paid or not, are deeply rooted in the capital world, instead of being “the natural pulse of a free enterprise economy”. While founding structural frame of the economic theory of capitalism, theoretical economists assume that every people or company will exert all their force to pursing their own interests, and they believe that the maximization of the interests of each and every 2 魏啸飞，《美国文明史英文教程》，2008, 第 215 页
“美国文明史”结业论文(2013年春) individual will be the maximization of the whole market.But that is where the problem lies. Most participants in the market are just ordinary people,and it's unlikely that they behave saintly and rationally while fighting for their own interests.As mentioned above.President Hoover's belief in his people's "voluntary action and restraint"proved to be nothing more than a daydream,and there are so many other powerful proofs in the sub-crime crisis as well. Financial derivatives had been proved to be of harm to the stability of the financial market, but government still took no measures in boycotting it,largely for the reason that it was profiting from this innovation.And large companies like Goldman Sachs even bet against toxic CDOs and at the same time told their costumers they were high quality investments,in which way they would get paid when their CDOs failed.The problems hidden in the assumption gradually showed up in the process of the growth of economy:the fights for interests between different individuals,companies or parties are to some extent harmful to all the competitors,leading to the result that in most cases,the maximization of the interest of one company means the minimization of that of another.Resources are wasted in the process of tough competition,and time is spent less efficiently. J.A.Schumpeter stated in his theory "the creative destruction of capitalism"that the outcome of technical innovation was a next depression and the creation and destruction of capitalism is of the same source.He believed that capitalism would eventually collapse owing to the giant size brought by its development and extension that is excessively fast.He viewed the egoism of capitalism as"high secularization featured by city dolcetivca".This theory explained the deep-rooted defects in capitalism in another way,different but complementary. Conclusion The causes of these the two financial crisis are within the system of capitalism.Economy can only be in a healthy state while in the control of"the invisible hand" of market and "the visible hand"of government,complemented by technical innovation. Capitalism will disappear in the future,its demise doomed ever since its foundation,because of its all kinds of unsolvable problems and defects,but as socialism,the best of which now existing in China,,is still far from perfection,capitalism is not going to vanish from the stage of human history in quite a long time.Capitalism and socialism are heading towards the same direction in different ways at the present time,and it'll be a long journey before an ideal economic system is fully established. 参考文献： Inside Job,2010,Sony Pictures Classics J.A.Joseph Alois Schumpeter,"Capitalism,Socialism and Democracy" Wikipedia [美]曼昆，梁小民梁硕译，《经济学原理微观经济学分册》，北京大学出版社，2009， 第9-10页 魏啸飞，《美国文明史英文教程》，北京大学出版社，2008，第214-230页。 魏啸飞陈月娥，《美国文明史》，北京大学出版社，2011，第315-339页。 3
“美国文明史”结业论文（2013 年春） 3 individual will be the maximization of the whole market. But that is where the problem lies. Most participants in the market are just ordinary people, and it’s unlikely that they behave saintly and rationally while fighting for their own interests. As mentioned above, President Hoover’s belief in his people’s “voluntary action and restraint” proved to be nothing more than a daydream, and there are so many other powerful proofs in the sub-crime crisis as well. Financial derivatives had been proved to be of harm to the stability of the financial market, but government still took no measures in boycotting it, largely for the reason that it was profiting from this innovation. And large companies like Goldman Sachs even bet against toxic CDOs and at the same time told their costumers they were high quality investments, in which way they would get paid when their CDOs failed. The problems hidden in the assumption gradually showed up in the process of the growth of economy: the fights for interests between different individuals, companies or parties are to some extent harmful to all the competitors, leading to the result that in most cases, the maximization of the interest of one company means the minimization of that of another. Resources are wasted in the process of tough competition, and time is spent less efficiently. J.A. Schumpeter stated in his theory “the creative destruction of capitalism” that the outcome of technical innovation was a next depression and the creation and destruction of capitalism is of the same source. He believed that capitalism would eventually collapse owing to the giant size brought by its development and extension that is excessively fast. He viewed the egoism of capitalism as “high secularization featured by city dolcetivca”. This theory explained the deep-rooted defects in capitalism in another way, different but complementary. Conclusion The causes of these the two financial crisis are within the system of capitalism. Economy can only be in a healthy state while in the control of “the invisible hand” of market and “the visible hand” of government, complemented by technical innovation. Capitalism will disappear in the future, its demise doomed ever since its foundation, because of its all kinds of unsolvable problems and defects, but as socialism, the best of which now existing in China, , is still far from perfection, capitalism is not going to vanish from the stage of human history in quite a long time. Capitalism and socialism are heading towards the same direction in different ways at the present time, and it’ll be a long journey before an ideal economic system is fully established. 参考文献： Inside Job, 2010, Sony Pictures Classics J.A.Joseph Alois Schumpeter, “Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy” Wikipedia [美]曼昆， 梁小民 梁硕 译，《经济学原理 微观经济学分册》，北京大学出版社，2009， 第 9-10 页 魏啸飞，《美国文明史英文教程》，北京大学出版社，2008，第 214-230 页。 魏啸飞 陈月娥，《美国文明史》，北京大学出版社，2011，第 315-339 页